Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>Happy new year guys - another chapter has arrived and it’s time to make the best out of it.</li><li>First of all, let’s look at the past, the now and the costly mistakes we made during the past year.</li><li>Soft commodities dominated the commodity front during 2023.</li></ul>

Happy new year guys - another chapter has arrived and it’s time to make the best out of it.First of all, let’s look at the past, the now and the costly mistakes we made during the past year.Soft commodities dominated the commodity front during 2023.

Commodities Going Into 2024 & Our Biggest Mistakes During 2023

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), ABN AMRO

ABN AMRO

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Macroeconomics

<div data-component-type="container"><ul><li>In 2023 gold prices have traded in a USD 1,800-2,000 per ounce range for most of the time. In periods of a stronger US dollar and higher US real yields gold prices moved towards the USD 1,800 level. Recently, gold prices have rallied to USD 2,000 again.</li><li>The recovery in gold prices has happened against the background of lower US real yields, the possible end of the tightening  cycles by the Fed and ECB and the situation in the Middle East (see above). Gold prices face difficulty to move and stay above USD 2,000 and/or to decline below USD 1,800.</li></ul></div><div data-component-type="container"><ul><li>For the coming months we don’t expect a change in these dynamics. However the start of the easing cycle and the large amount of rate cuts we expect for the Fed and the ECB in 2024 should be supportive for gold prices, especially as we expect more aggressive rate cuts by both central banks than the market.</li></ul></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

In 2023 gold prices have traded in a USD 1,800-2,000 per ounce range for most of the time. In periods of a stronger US dollar and higher US real yields gold prices moved towards the USD 1,800 level. Recently, gold prices have rallied to USD 2,000 again.The recovery in gold prices has happened against the background of lower US real yields, the possible end of the tightening  cycles by the Fed and ECB and the situation in the Middle East (see above). Gold prices face difficulty to move and stay above USD 2,000 and/or to decline below USD 1,800.For the coming months we don’t expect a change in these dynamics. However the start of the easing cycle and the large amount of rate cuts we expect for the Fed and the ECB in 2024 should be supportive for gold prices, especially as we expect more aggressive rate cuts by both central banks than the market.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>Orange juice futures hit an all-time high last week as citrus crops all across the US have been hammered by a series of hurricanes and the spread of citrus greening, an incurable disease spread by insects.</li><li>The vast majority of oranges produced in the US come from Florida, which has been hobbled by hurricanes and a cold snap, massively hampering supply.</li><li>Such headwinds are responsible for the supply shortage in oranges, which has driven up prices that will eventually filter through to consumers.</li></ul>

Orange juice futures hit an all-time high last week as citrus crops all across the US have been hammered by a series of hurricanes and the spread of citrus greening, an incurable disease spread by insects.The vast majority of oranges produced in the US come from Florida, which has been hobbled by hurricanes and a cold snap, massively hampering supply.Such headwinds are responsible for the supply shortage in oranges, which has driven up prices that will eventually filter through to consumers.

Traders Remain Neutral Commodities // Copper Loses as China Falls Apart

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Broader bearish USD sentiment has moderated somewhat, the latest positioning data from the CFTC shows.</li><li>Non-Commercial Accounts cut short USD positioning by a little over USD3.4bn in the week through Tuesday, taking the aggregate bear bet on the USD versus the major currencies back to USD15.8bn.</li><li>Data shows that Real Money Accounts trimmed their overall short USD position USD2.4bn to USD38.9bn over the week while Leveraged Accounts lifted their (modest) short USD position by USD2.5bn to USD4.8bn.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Broader bearish USD sentiment has moderated somewhat, the latest positioning data from the CFTC shows.Non-Commercial Accounts cut short USD positioning by a little over USD3.4bn in the week through Tuesday, taking the aggregate bear bet on the USD versus the major currencies back to USD15.8bn.Data shows that Real Money Accounts trimmed their overall short USD position USD2.4bn to USD38.9bn over the week while Leveraged Accounts lifted their (modest) short USD position by USD2.5bn to USD4.8bn.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Bearish USD Sentiment Moderates

<ul><li>Cocoa Market Started Collapsing Run-ups in commodity markets tend to be slow but steady but meltdowns on the other hand fast and sharp - a bit comparable with equity markets but definitely more volatile.</li><li>Especially Parabolic advances, like the one in cocoa futures, often end with a sweeping reversal.</li><li>Fortunately, the soybean complex is one we covered intensively during this year.</li></ul>

Cocoa Market Started Collapsing Run-ups in commodity markets tend to be slow but steady but meltdowns on the other hand fast and sharp - a bit comparable with equity markets but definitely more volatile.Especially Parabolic advances, like the one in cocoa futures, often end with a sweeping reversal.Fortunately, the soybean complex is one we covered intensively during this year.

Cocoa Market Started Collapsing // Soybean Spreads crash down

United States

Gold is a chemical element with the symbol Au (from Latin: aurum) and the atomic number 79. In its purest form, it is a bright, slightly reddish yellow, dense, soft, malleable and ductile metal. Chemically, gold is a transition metal and a group 11 element. It is one of the least reactive chemical elements, and is solid under standard conditions. The metal therefore occurs often in free elemental (native) form, as nuggets or grains, in rocks, in veins and in alluvial deposits. It occurs in a solid solution series with the native element silver (as electrum) and also naturally alloyed with copper and palladium. Less commonly, it occurs in minerals as gold compounds, often with tellurium (gold tellurides).

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Gold (GOLD COMDTY)

Commodities Going Into 2024 & Our Biggest Mistakes During 2023

Happy new year guys - another chapter has arrived and it’s time to make the best out of it. First of all, let’s look at the past, the now and the...

The Commodity Report

Gold price outlook

Outlook 2024 Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below...

ABN AMRO

Traders Remain Neutral Commodities // Copper Loses as China Falls Apart

The vast majority of oranges produced in the US come from Florida, which has been hobbled by hurricanes and a cold snap, massively hampering supply.

The Commodity Report

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Bearish USD Sentiment Moderates

Non-Commercial Accounts cut short USD positioning by a little over USD3.4bn in the week through Tuesday, taking the aggregate bear bet on the USD

Scotiabank

Cocoa Market Started Collapsing // Soybean Spreads crash down

Cocoa Market Started Collapsing Run-ups in commodity markets tend to be slow but steady but meltdowns on the other hand fast and sharp

The Commodity Report

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)