Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Cross Asset Strategy

The recent bounce in Gold has taken us to a sell zone at a time when yields are stabilising again. A refreshed weekly chart may be able to distinguish the 'wood from the trees' in what has sometimes been a noisy market

The recent bounce in Gold has taken us to a sell zone at a time when yields are stabilising again. A refreshed weekly chart may be able to distinguish the 'wood from the trees' in what has sometimes been a noisy market

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


<ul>
<li>High street inflation has two components: monetary inflation and cost inflation
</li>
<li>Gold price is sensitive to monetary inflation and it is trading well-below its ‘liquidity-based’ fair-value</li>
<li>Existence of Bitcoin as a rival monetary inflation hedge has lopped-off US$158/oz from gold’s ‘fair-value’</li>
<li>Gold price ‘fair value’ assuming unchanged Bitcoin is US$2527/oz</li>
<li>But on same basis, Bitcoin’s liquidity-based fair-value assuming no change in gold price, is a staggering US$341250/coin</li>
</ul>


High street inflation has two components: monetary inflation and cost inflation

Gold price is sensitive to monetary inflation and it is trading well-below its ‘liquidity-based’ fair-value
Existence of Bitcoin as a rival monetary inflation hedge has lopped-off US$158/oz from gold’s ‘fair-value’
Gold price ‘fair value’ assuming unchanged Bitcoin is US$2527/oz
But on same basis, Bitcoin’s liquidity-based fair-value assuming no change in gold price, is a staggering US$341250/coin


Bitcoin US$341,250? This Is Not a Forecast….Well Not Yet!

The price of Silver has closed below the 200 day moving average for the first time since May 2020. This development draws some attention. While it is not a break in itself, any lower through $24.05 on a close basis would be meaningful bearish sign.We also review the weekly Gold chart which continues to look concerning as we sustain below the 55 week moving average .As Bonds remain stable and the USD looking increasingly bid across many pairs, it is perhaps no wonder that both Silver and Gold are under pressure.

The price of Silver has closed below the 200 day moving average for the first time since May 2020. This development draws some attention. While it is not a break in itself, any lower through $24.05 on a close basis would be meaningful bearish sign.We also review the weekly Gold chart which continues to look concerning as we sustain below the 55 week moving average .As Bonds remain stable and the USD looking increasingly bid across many pairs, it is perhaps no wonder that both Silver and Gold are under pressure.

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Gold has been left on the back burner as crypto takes the limelight of late. Worth noting that Gold held up well in the face of the recent yield spike and even rallied from the 1,680 long support and is due to break higher to challenge the key 1,780 bull/bear level represented by the descending wedge trendline resistance.RSI exhibits a bull bias to break wedge resistance to spearhead a continuation of gold's rise. A dip and breakout rise in the USD will induce clear headwinds for gold that aligns 1,780 capping this drive. It is this near term dip in the dollar (risk on) that will help lift gold.

Gold has been left on the back burner as crypto takes the limelight of late. Worth noting that Gold held up well in the face of the recent yield spike and even rallied from the 1,680 long support and is due to break higher to challenge the key 1,780 bull/bear level represented by the descending wedge trendline resistance.RSI exhibits a bull bias to break wedge resistance to spearhead a continuation of gold's rise. A dip and breakout rise in the USD will induce clear headwinds for gold that aligns 1,780 capping this drive. It is this near term dip in the dollar (risk on) that will help lift gold.

Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis., Vanda Insights

Vandana Hari

Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis.

Vanda Insights

Vanda Insights is a Singapore-based boutique provider of intelligence on the global energy markets, launched in September 2016. The venture was born out of a desire to extract the signal from the noise in the complex and often volatile oil markets. Our succinct and clear macro analysis is relied upon by thousands of readers globally, including those doing business directly or indirectly in the physical commodity and derivatives markets; wealth managers; governments, regulatory bodies and think-tanks; as well as trade organizations and educational institutions.

Global Energy Markets

Commodities

Crude continued its breathless rally through the early part of last week, but ended with a sharp pullback on Friday. We inspect the three “Fs” in crude’s spectacular 18% surge through February – fundamentals, financial markets and froth – to gauge of their influence in the coming days and weeks.While the support from fundamentals looks solid, how might it be impacted by the OPEC/non-OPEC alliance's meeting on March 4 to decide on their production policy for April?Plus: Our view on the oil market this year makes us sceptical of the chorus of calls for a "commodities super cycle".

Crude continued its breathless rally through the early part of last week, but ended with a sharp pullback on Friday. We inspect the three “Fs” in crude’s spectacular 18% surge through February – fundamentals, financial markets and froth – to gauge of their influence in the coming days and weeks.While the support from fundamentals looks solid, how might it be impacted by the OPEC/non-OPEC alliance's meeting on March 4 to decide on their production policy for April?Plus: Our view on the oil market this year makes us sceptical of the chorus of calls for a "commodities super cycle". 

Weekly Oil Views: Crude's Incessant Rally Halts Just Before OPEC+ Meet. What Next?

United States

Gold is a chemical element with the symbol Au (from Latin: aurum) and the atomic number 79. In its purest form, it is a bright, slightly reddish yellow, dense, soft, malleable and ductile metal. Chemically, gold is a transition metal and a group 11 element. It is one of the least reactive chemical elements, and is solid under standard conditions. The metal therefore occurs often in free elemental (native) form, as nuggets or grains, in rocks, in veins and in alluvial deposits. It occurs in a solid solution series with the native element silver (as electrum) and also naturally alloyed with copper and palladium. Less commonly, it occurs in minerals as gold compounds, often with tellurium (gold tellurides).

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Gold (GOLD COMDTY)

The Sell Zone in Gold?

After a decent short term bounce on Gold we now see the sell zone that should be watched. A refreshed weekly chart may reveal how low we could go

Shyam Devani

Bitcoin US$341,250? This Is Not a Forecast….Well Not Yet!

Gold been lackluster. Why? Pat of the reason may be rivalry from Bitcoin? Assuming Bitcoin remains unchanged, gold's fair-value is $2527/oz. But...

Michael J. Howell

No Silver Lining, No Golden Egg

Silver and Gold are back under pressure with Bonds stable and the USD looking bid. Any lower on Silver will amount to a bearish break

Shyam Devani

Gold 1,780 Hurdle Out of Bull Flag

Gold has been left on the back burner of late. Worth noting that Gold held up well in the face of the recent yield spike and is due to break higher...

Thomas Schroeder

Weekly Oil Views: Crude's Incessant Rally Halts Just Before OPEC+ Meet. What Next?

Crude's breathless rally to fresh pre-Covid highs ended with a sharp pullback on Friday. All eyes will be on the OPEC+ meeting this week -- will...

Vandana Hari

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