Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>Top Commodity Trader is Long Cocoa Pierre Andurand’s hedge fund bet on higher cocoa prices ahead of a massive surge last month, according to a Bloomberg article.</li><li>Andurand said his firm expects cocoa-beans production globally to be down at least 18% on an annual basis, compared to most analysts’ expectations of 10-11%.</li><li>“This means that we will finish the year with the lowest stocks-to-grinding ratio ever, and potentially run out of inventories late in the year,” he added.</li></ul>

Top Commodity Trader is Long Cocoa Pierre Andurand’s hedge fund bet on higher cocoa prices ahead of a massive surge last month, according to a Bloomberg article.Andurand said his firm expects cocoa-beans production globally to be down at least 18% on an annual basis, compared to most analysts’ expectations of 10-11%.“This means that we will finish the year with the lowest stocks-to-grinding ratio ever, and potentially run out of inventories late in the year,” he added.

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>BRI / Cover Story: How a China-built railway is connecting Ethiopia to the world</li><li>FDI /Foreign direct investment into China plummets to 23-year low</li><li>Personnel /Provincial officials moved to key leadership jobs in Beijing</li></ul>

BRI / Cover Story: How a China-built railway is connecting Ethiopia to the worldFDI /Foreign direct investment into China plummets to 23-year lowPersonnel /Provincial officials moved to key leadership jobs in Beijing

CX Daily: How a China-built railway is connecting Ethiopia to the world 

<ul><li>Goldman also highlights that cyclical risks from the business cycle are fading.</li><li>An upswing in the global industrial cycle typically leads to broad metals upside over the next 12 months the investment bank added.</li><li>According to data from PIERS, a trade flow analytics tool within S&amp;P Global, Baltimore port held just 4% share of the total trade volumes on the East Coast compared with other major regional ports like New York, with a nearly 38% share according to S&amp;P Global.</li></ul>

Goldman also highlights that cyclical risks from the business cycle are fading.An upswing in the global industrial cycle typically leads to broad metals upside over the next 12 months the investment bank added.According to data from PIERS, a trade flow analytics tool within S&amp;P Global, Baltimore port held just 4% share of the total trade volumes on the East Coast compared with other major regional ports like New York, with a nearly 38% share according to S&amp;P Global.

What the Baltimore Bride Collapse Means for Commodities

<ul><li>Fund Manager Positioning In March fund managers added to their energy position but reduced overall commodities like grains, softs and metals on a MoM basis — the latest BofA survey shows.</li><li>Investors have been underweight commodities now for the past 4 months (longest underweight streak since Aug'19) Compared to the past 20-year z-score, fund managers remain heavily underweight in commodities and even more in energy.</li><li>In March fund managers added to their energy position but reduced overall commodities like grains, softs and metals on a MoM basis — the latest BofA survey shows.</li></ul>

Fund Manager Positioning In March fund managers added to their energy position but reduced overall commodities like grains, softs and metals on a MoM basis — the latest BofA survey shows.Investors have been underweight commodities now for the past 4 months (longest underweight streak since Aug'19) Compared to the past 20-year z-score, fund managers remain heavily underweight in commodities and even more in energy.In March fund managers added to their energy position but reduced overall commodities like grains, softs and metals on a MoM basis — the latest BofA survey shows.

Fund Managers Commodity Positioning // Cocoa’s Historic Run Continues…

Adventurous Investing For Grown Ups, The Adventurous Investor

Adventurous Investor

Adventurous Investing For Grown Ups

The Adventurous Investor

Introducing private investors to adventurous investment ideas. What does this mean in practice? I’d identify several core themes: Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) both in the US and the UK. I’ll look both at the theory underlying these very popular funds as well as the constant stream of new launches. I’ll also feature some model portfolios, with a simple mix of ETFs to suit all tastes. Alternative investment ideas. This is a deliberately wide brief but takes in everything from real asset-backed funds (property and infrastructure for instance) through to music and art…and most things in between. I’ll also journey on adventures overseas and look at alternative emerging and frontier countries and markets that should feature in your portfolio. From Russia to Africa and plenty of exciting places in between. For a UK audience I will also continue to regularly analyze and comment on the listed closed-end fund segment and investment trusts. Last but by no means least I’ll try and make sense of the big macro stories that impact investors. I’ll also weave into this my own slightly idiosyncratic views which I’m afraid mark me out as a liberal/ social-democratic inclined centrist Dad (which is I fear sometimes seen as a tag of shame in these radicalized days).

<ul><li>I’ve promised to keep updating my asset allocation tables every couple of months – and, on cue, here they are!</li><li>They come in two guises. The first, below, is my overall take on the range of asset classes. There aren’t any changes this time. I’m still wary of equities, especially US equities, though, paradoxically, if I must own US equities, I would rather own the really big mega-cap tech names.</li><li>I have a neutral position overall in equities, which implies a 60/40 equities/bonds balance, which hasn’t changed for a while – I wouldn’t be racing to put even more money to work in equities. </li></ul>

I’ve promised to keep updating my asset allocation tables every couple of months – and, on cue, here they are!They come in two guises. The first, below, is my overall take on the range of asset classes. There aren’t any changes this time. I’m still wary of equities, especially US equities, though, paradoxically, if I must own US equities, I would rather own the really big mega-cap tech names.I have a neutral position overall in equities, which implies a 60/40 equities/bonds balance, which hasn’t changed for a while – I wouldn’t be racing to put even more money to work in equities. 

Monday Macro – Asset allocation update, the Nvidia show, stubborn rates, and Gold

United States

Gold is a chemical element with the symbol Au (from Latin: aurum) and the atomic number 79. In its purest form, it is a bright, slightly reddish yellow, dense, soft, malleable and ductile metal. Chemically, gold is a transition metal and a group 11 element. It is one of the least reactive chemical elements, and is solid under standard conditions. The metal therefore occurs often in free elemental (native) form, as nuggets or grains, in rocks, in veins and in alluvial deposits. It occurs in a solid solution series with the native element silver (as electrum) and also naturally alloyed with copper and palladium. Less commonly, it occurs in minerals as gold compounds, often with tellurium (gold tellurides).

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Gold (GOLD COMDTY)

The Cocoa Saga Continues - Be Careful

Top Commodity Trader is Long Cocoa Pierre Andurand’s hedge fund bet on higher cocoa prices ahead of a massive surge last month, according to a...

The Commodity Report

CX Daily: How a China-built railway is connecting Ethiopia to the world

BRI / Cover Story: How a China-built railway is connecting Ethiopia to the world In the pre-dawn glow at the Akaki station just outside Addis...

Caixin Global

What the Baltimore Bride Collapse Means for Commodities

According to data from PIERS, a trade flow analytics tool within S&P Global, Baltimore port held just 4% share of the total trade volumes on the...

The Commodity Report

Fund Managers Commodity Positioning // Cocoa’s Historic Run Continues…

Fund Manager Positioning In March fund managers added to their energy position but reduced overall commodities like grains, softs and metals on a...

The Commodity Report

Monday Macro – Asset allocation update, the Nvidia show, stubborn rates, and Gold

I’ve promised to keep updating my asset allocation tables every couple of months – and, on cue, here they are! They come in two guises.

Adventurous Investor

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