Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The measures taken by the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury do not protect against idiosyncratic bank runs like the one that hit First Republic Bank.</li>
<li>Big Tech is beating big time, but earnings and sales growth have declined significantly in recent quarters, while valuation increased.</li>
<li>Should volatility spike, which is definitely on the table, Systematic Macro investors will have to sell up to USD 300 billion in equities.</li>
</ul>


The measures taken by the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury do not protect against idiosyncratic bank runs like the one that hit First Republic Bank.
Big Tech is beating big time, but earnings and sales growth have declined significantly in recent quarters, while valuation increased.
Should volatility spike, which is definitely on the table, Systematic Macro investors will have to sell up to USD 300 billion in equities.


Weekly Market Monitor (17) - Banking Anxiety – Back with a Vengeance!

Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>Don’t get fooled by the tight inventory narrative While many copper bulls continue to write about the low copper inventories I would like to inform you once again that there is simply no correlation between copper inventories and the price of the industrial metal.</li><li>If you want to be precise - you could even make the case that excessive lows in the LME copper inventory data actually mark cyclical highs in the price of the brownish metal.</li><li>US Leading Economic Index's recession signal deepens in March, Conference Board reports: “The US LEI fell to its lowest level since November of 2020, consistent with worsening economic conditions ahead,” says CB's senior manager for business cycle indicators.</li></ul>

Don’t get fooled by the tight inventory narrative While many copper bulls continue to write about the low copper inventories I would like to inform you once again that there is simply no correlation between copper inventories and the price of the industrial metal.If you want to be precise - you could even make the case that excessive lows in the LME copper inventory data actually mark cyclical highs in the price of the brownish metal.US Leading Economic Index's recession signal deepens in March, Conference Board reports: “The US LEI fell to its lowest level since November of 2020, consistent with worsening economic conditions ahead,” says CB's senior manager for business cycle indicators.

Don’t Get Fooled by the Tight Inventory Narrative - Economic Situation Continues to Worsen

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 is approaching the 4165-4200 area; we continue to believe this will cap upside in 2023, but we also acknowledge that a move to 4300-4325 is possible</li>
<li>Considering limited upside in both scenarios, we continue to recommend shifting to defensives, particularly Health Care (XLV), Utilities (RYU, XLU), Consumer Staples (XLP), and precious metals miners (GDX)</li>
<li>10-Year and 30-Year Treasury yields testing short-term resistance while the US dollar (DXY) tests support at $101-101.50.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 is approaching the 4165-4200 area; we continue to believe this will cap upside in 2023, but we also acknowledge that a move to 4300-4325 is possible
Considering limited upside in both scenarios, we continue to recommend shifting to defensives, particularly Health Care (XLV), Utilities (RYU, XLU), Consumer Staples (XLP), and precious metals miners (GDX)
10-Year and 30-Year Treasury yields testing short-term resistance while the US dollar (DXY) tests support at $101-101.50.


Favor Defensives as S&P 500 Tests 4165-4200; Buys in Consumer Staples & Europe/UK Telecomm

<ul>
<li>There is a clear distinction between the returns of nominal and real asset classes following a peak in US headline inflation.</li>
<li>The 1,2,3,6, and 12-month returns for both US Equities and Treasuries are positive and, more importantly, above the average returns measured over the entire sample period.</li>
<li>The returns on Commodities following a peak in US inflation are negative for all five holding periods, while Gold is somewhat of a mixed bag caused by elevated return volatility. </li>
</ul>


There is a clear distinction between the returns of nominal and real asset classes following a peak in US headline inflation.
The 1,2,3,6, and 12-month returns for both US Equities and Treasuries are positive and, more importantly, above the average returns measured over the entire sample period.
The returns on Commodities following a peak in US inflation are negative for all five holding periods, while Gold is somewhat of a mixed bag caused by elevated return volatility. 


When Inflation Peaks, Favor Nominal over Real Assets: The Multi-Asset Evidence

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Tactical synergies are aligning between topping equities, yield and DXY wedge formations and the USD reaching a range low (more so in Asia/ZAR).</li>
<li>We are approaching the end of the April buoyant cycle for risk with momentum due to start tapering off next week with late April a timeline for a turn.</li>
<li>Pay close attention to the bullish wedge in the dollar and the bull wedge in yield - some clear synergy and then we have gold topping. Late April/May clarity.</li>
</ul>


Tactical synergies are aligning between topping equities, yield and DXY wedge formations and the USD reaching a range low (more so in Asia/ZAR).
We are approaching the end of the April buoyant cycle for risk with momentum due to start tapering off next week with late April a timeline for a turn.
Pay close attention to the bullish wedge in the dollar and the bull wedge in yield - some clear synergy and then we have gold topping. Late April/May clarity.


United States

Gold is a chemical element with the symbol Au (from Latin: aurum) and the atomic number 79. In its purest form, it is a bright, slightly reddish yellow, dense, soft, malleable and ductile metal. Chemically, gold is a transition metal and a group 11 element. It is one of the least reactive chemical elements, and is solid under standard conditions. The metal therefore occurs often in free elemental (native) form, as nuggets or grains, in rocks, in veins and in alluvial deposits. It occurs in a solid solution series with the native element silver (as electrum) and also naturally alloyed with copper and palladium. Less commonly, it occurs in minerals as gold compounds, often with tellurium (gold tellurides).

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Gold (GOLD COMDTY)

Weekly Market Monitor (17) - Banking Anxiety – Back with a Vengeance!

Welcome to the weekly Market Monitor, keeping you updated on the week’s most important charts and developments in financial markets.

Jeroen Blokland

Don’t Get Fooled by the Tight Inventory Narrative - Economic Situation Continues to Worsen

If you want to be precise - you could even make the case that excessive lows in the LME copper inventory data actually mark cyclical highs in the...

The Commodity Report

Favor Defensives as S&P 500 Tests 4165-4200; Buys in Consumer Staples & Europe/UK Telecomm

The $SPX is approaching the 4165-4200 area; we continue to believe this will cap upside in 2023. Considering limited upside, we continue to favor...

Vermilion Research

When Inflation Peaks, Favor Nominal over Real Assets: The Multi-Asset Evidence

Empirical data since 1970 reveals that US Equities and Treasuries perform well after a peak in inflation, while Commodities and Gold lag.

Jeroen Blokland

Spx, Yield, USD and Gold Alignment

Tactical synergies are aligning between topping equities, yield and DXY wedge formations and the USD reaching a range low (more so in Asia/ZAR). We...

Thomas Schroeder

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