Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>That Bank of England had to increase the pace of interest rate hikes so late in the tightening cycle is incontrovertible evidence that the central bank remains behind the curve. </li>
<li>Based on the historical relationship between consumer and producer prices, with a PPI of 1.0%, German headline inflation should be just below 2%</li>
<li>The NASDAQ Index and the US interest rates are diverging rapidly. This is not what is supposed to happen in a discounted cash flow model for growth stocks.</li>
</ul>


That Bank of England had to increase the pace of interest rate hikes so late in the tightening cycle is incontrovertible evidence that the central bank remains behind the curve. 
Based on the historical relationship between consumer and producer prices, with a PPI of 1.0%, German headline inflation should be just below 2%
The NASDAQ Index and the US interest rates are diverging rapidly. This is not what is supposed to happen in a discounted cash flow model for growth stocks.


The Weekly Market Monitor – Another Hawkish Twist

Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Commodities

<ul><li>Gold and silver prices have been drifting lower as investors have shifted their focus to riskier assets.</li><li>Earlier this year, the rise in gold prices was driven by stable yields, anxiety from regional bank stress, and a preference for real or liquid assets as reliable investment options.</li><li>However, the current robustness of nominal and real yields, equities, and credit has left precious metals vulnerable.</li></ul>

Gold and silver prices have been drifting lower as investors have shifted their focus to riskier assets.Earlier this year, the rise in gold prices was driven by stable yields, anxiety from regional bank stress, and a preference for real or liquid assets as reliable investment options.However, the current robustness of nominal and real yields, equities, and credit has left precious metals vulnerable.

Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

<ul><li>El Nino is here (like we forecasted) S&amp;P Global highlighted some facts regarding the effects of the weather phenomenon on crop yields.</li><li>I found the following chart about soybean yields quite interesting and also important going forward.</li><li>Makes one think how sustainable last week’s price surge in beans actually is!!! El Nino tends to be good for soybean yields in Argentina and Brazil but also in the US.</li></ul>

El Nino is here (like we forecasted) S&amp;P Global highlighted some facts regarding the effects of the weather phenomenon on crop yields.I found the following chart about soybean yields quite interesting and also important going forward.Makes one think how sustainable last week’s price surge in beans actually is!!! El Nino tends to be good for soybean yields in Argentina and Brazil but also in the US.

El Nino is here // River Rhine is drying up again // Managers are net short commodities

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Dow Jones Industrial Average / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 has marginally surpassed the 4300-4325 area which we have anticipated would cap upside for 2023. </li>
<li>As noted in our 6/6/23 Compass, we are vigilant at these levels given we expect inflation to remain elevated, but we <em><strong>cannot be bearish</strong></em>if the SPX is above 4165-4200</li>
<li>Breadth has continued to improve within the Russell 2000, and the $IWM is approaching our first target of $190 following the breakout above $180. Also see breadth improving within SPX.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 has marginally surpassed the 4300-4325 area which we have anticipated would cap upside for 2023. 
As noted in our 6/6/23 Compass, we are vigilant at these levels given we expect inflation to remain elevated, but we cannot be bearishif the SPX is above 4165-4200
Breadth has continued to improve within the Russell 2000, and the $IWM is approaching our first target of $190 following the breakout above $180. Also see breadth improving within SPX.


Dow Testing 1-Year Resistance at 34,280 Ahead of FOMC; Buy Ideas Within Manufacturing/Industrials

<ul><li>Farmer Sentiment continues to fall Producer sentiment fell to its weakest reading since July 2022 as the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer declined 19 points to a reading of 104 in May.</li><li>The Index of Future Expectations was down 22 points to a reading of 98 in May, while the Index of Current Conditions was down 13 points to a reading of 116.</li><li>This month’s lower sentiment was fueled by drops in both of the barometer’s sub-indices and likely triggered by weakened crop prices, according to the University of Purdue.</li></ul>

Farmer Sentiment continues to fall Producer sentiment fell to its weakest reading since July 2022 as the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer declined 19 points to a reading of 104 in May.The Index of Future Expectations was down 22 points to a reading of 98 in May, while the Index of Current Conditions was down 13 points to a reading of 116.This month’s lower sentiment was fueled by drops in both of the barometer’s sub-indices and likely triggered by weakened crop prices, according to the University of Purdue.

The Case for Oil // Farmer Sentiment continues to fall

United States

Gold is a chemical element with the symbol Au (from Latin: aurum) and the atomic number 79. In its purest form, it is a bright, slightly reddish yellow, dense, soft, malleable and ductile metal. Chemically, gold is a transition metal and a group 11 element. It is one of the least reactive chemical elements, and is solid under standard conditions. The metal therefore occurs often in free elemental (native) form, as nuggets or grains, in rocks, in veins and in alluvial deposits. It occurs in a solid solution series with the native element silver (as electrum) and also naturally alloyed with copper and palladium. Less commonly, it occurs in minerals as gold compounds, often with tellurium (gold tellurides).

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Gold (GOLD COMDTY)

The Weekly Market Monitor – Another Hawkish Twist

The Bank of England confirms central banks and more monetary tightening is coming. Will investors shy away from (very) expensive equities and look...

Jeroen Blokland

Gold & Silver

Earlier this year, the rise in gold prices was driven by stable yields, anxiety from regional bank stress, and a preference for real or liquid...

Untying The Gordian Knot

El Nino is here // River Rhine is drying up again // Managers are net short commodities

El Nino is here (like we forecasted) S&P Global highlighted some facts regarding the effects of the weather phenomenon on crop yields.

The Commodity Report

Dow Testing 1-Year Resistance at 34,280 Ahead of FOMC; Buy Ideas Within Manufacturing/Industrials

Dow $DJI Testing 1-Year Resistance at 34,280 ahead of FOMC. Breadth continues to improve within the Russell 2000 $IWM, and breadth improving within...

Vermilion Research

The Case for Oil // Farmer Sentiment continues to fall

Farmer Sentiment continues to fall Producer sentiment fell to its weakest reading since July 2022 as the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy...

The Commodity Report

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