Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>This week we are looking at the BoJ hiking rates for the first time since 2007 and its effects on the Japanese economy.</li><li>Afterwards we will have a look at the improving sentiment in Germany and then at a dive into the commodity rally currently underway.</li><li>The we’ll talk about Canada where rates finally look to be impacting the economy and then we’ll end up with a short look at US inflation expectations.</li></ul>

This week we are looking at the BoJ hiking rates for the first time since 2007 and its effects on the Japanese economy.Afterwards we will have a look at the improving sentiment in Germany and then at a dive into the commodity rally currently underway.The we’ll talk about Canada where rates finally look to be impacting the economy and then we’ll end up with a short look at US inflation expectations.

5 Things We Watch: BoJ, Germany, Commodities, Canada, Inflation

Adventurous Investing For Grown Ups, The Adventurous Investor

Adventurous Investor

Adventurous Investing For Grown Ups

The Adventurous Investor

Introducing private investors to adventurous investment ideas. What does this mean in practice? I’d identify several core themes: Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) both in the US and the UK. I’ll look both at the theory underlying these very popular funds as well as the constant stream of new launches. I’ll also feature some model portfolios, with a simple mix of ETFs to suit all tastes. Alternative investment ideas. This is a deliberately wide brief but takes in everything from real asset-backed funds (property and infrastructure for instance) through to music and art…and most things in between. I’ll also journey on adventures overseas and look at alternative emerging and frontier countries and markets that should feature in your portfolio. From Russia to Africa and plenty of exciting places in between. For a UK audience I will also continue to regularly analyze and comment on the listed closed-end fund segment and investment trusts. Last but by no means least I’ll try and make sense of the big macro stories that impact investors. I’ll also weave into this my own slightly idiosyncratic views which I’m afraid mark me out as a liberal/ social-democratic inclined centrist Dad (which is I fear sometimes seen as a tag of shame in these radicalized days).

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>I’ve promised to keep updating my asset allocation tables every couple of months – and, on cue, here they are!</li><li>They come in two guises. The first, below, is my overall take on the range of asset classes. There aren’t any changes this time. I’m still wary of equities, especially US equities, though, paradoxically, if I must own US equities, I would rather own the really big mega-cap tech names.</li><li>I have a neutral position overall in equities, which implies a 60/40 equities/bonds balance, which hasn’t changed for a while – I wouldn’t be racing to put even more money to work in equities. </li></ul>

I’ve promised to keep updating my asset allocation tables every couple of months – and, on cue, here they are!They come in two guises. The first, below, is my overall take on the range of asset classes. There aren’t any changes this time. I’m still wary of equities, especially US equities, though, paradoxically, if I must own US equities, I would rather own the really big mega-cap tech names.I have a neutral position overall in equities, which implies a 60/40 equities/bonds balance, which hasn’t changed for a while – I wouldn’t be racing to put even more money to work in equities. 

Monday Macro – Asset allocation update, the Nvidia show, stubborn rates, and Gold

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

<ul>
<li>Gold has realized an equity-like return over the last 20 years.</li>
<li>Gold has shown zero sensitivity to equity market declines, making it an excellent portfolio diversifier.</li>
<li>With the long-term outlook for bonds clouded (structurally lower yields and higher volatility), gold will likely become investors' preferred equity hedge.</li>
</ul>


Gold has realized an equity-like return over the last 20 years.
Gold has shown zero sensitivity to equity market declines, making it an excellent portfolio diversifier.
With the long-term outlook for bonds clouded (structurally lower yields and higher volatility), gold will likely become investors' preferred equity hedge.


Gold – An Excellent Addition to Any Investment Portfolio!

<ul>
<li>Bitcoin AND gold made new all-time highs, which is by no means a coincidence. Gold’s market cap is now over USD 16 trillion, which is important for two reasons.</li>
<li>The Fed has multiple reasons to cut rates even though GDP growth is resilient, including bank defaults, the commercial real estate crisis, and evaporating liquidity.</li>
<li>The ECB should cut rates, too; it runs the risk of getting in on the action too late.</li>
</ul>


Bitcoin AND gold made new all-time highs, which is by no means a coincidence. Gold’s market cap is now over USD 16 trillion, which is important for two reasons.
The Fed has multiple reasons to cut rates even though GDP growth is resilient, including bank defaults, the commercial real estate crisis, and evaporating liquidity.
The ECB should cut rates, too; it runs the risk of getting in on the action too late.


The Weekly Market Monitor – These Two All-Time Highs Are No Coincidence!

Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Commodities

<ul><li>Gold and Silver have remained unresponsive to lower rates, escalating geopolitical risks and higher China and India seasonal demand.</li><li>Notably, early February saw the emergence of two contrarian signals that merited closer attention.</li><li>While these signals are not foolproof market timing tools, they warrant attention when they align with technical support levels within an established consolidation pattern.</li></ul>

Gold and Silver have remained unresponsive to lower rates, escalating geopolitical risks and higher China and India seasonal demand.Notably, early February saw the emergence of two contrarian signals that merited closer attention.While these signals are not foolproof market timing tools, they warrant attention when they align with technical support levels within an established consolidation pattern.

United States

Gold is a chemical element with the symbol Au (from Latin: aurum) and the atomic number 79. In its purest form, it is a bright, slightly reddish yellow, dense, soft, malleable and ductile metal. Chemically, gold is a transition metal and a group 11 element. It is one of the least reactive chemical elements, and is solid under standard conditions. The metal therefore occurs often in free elemental (native) form, as nuggets or grains, in rocks, in veins and in alluvial deposits. It occurs in a solid solution series with the native element silver (as electrum) and also naturally alloyed with copper and palladium. Less commonly, it occurs in minerals as gold compounds, often with tellurium (gold tellurides).

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Gold (GOLD COMDTY)

5 Things We Watch: BoJ, Germany, Commodities, Canada, Inflation

This week we are looking at the BoJ hiking rates for the first time since 2007 and its effects on the Japanese economy. Afterwards we will have a...

Steno Research

Monday Macro – Asset allocation update, the Nvidia show, stubborn rates, and Gold

I’ve promised to keep updating my asset allocation tables every couple of months – and, on cue, here they are! They come in two guises.

Adventurous Investor

Gold – An Excellent Addition to Any Investment Portfolio!

Gold brings a significant reduction in downside risk and offers unique diversification benefits to any (multi-asset) investment portfolio.

Jeroen Blokland

The Weekly Market Monitor – These Two All-Time Highs Are No Coincidence!

Forget the macro data for a moment. This week was all about central banks opening the door to policy easing and scarce assets recording new all...

Jeroen Blokland

Silver: Is a Breakout Imminent?

Gold and Silver have remained unresponsive to lower rates, escalating geopolitical risks and higher China and India seasonal demand.

Untying The Gordian Knot

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)