Breaking Down the Mining News of the Day, Money of Mine

Money of Mine

Breaking Down the Mining News of the Day

An ex-underground miner, an ex-investment banker, and an ex-equity research guy breaking down the mining news of the day. It's a bit of entertainment, information, and occasionally some alpha.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Goldfields and Gold Road are in discussions for a potential acquisition deal, with Goldfields initially making an offer to buy Gold Road which was rejected, followed by a counteroffer to buy a stake in Gruyere.</li><li>Goldfields eventually flew to Perth for face-to-face negotiations, but delays in response led to Goldfields threatening to go public with the offer.</li><li>The joint venture agreement between Goldfields and Gold Road has previously prevented any acquisition deals, leading to speculation on why a consolidation has not occurred before.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Goldfields and Gold Road are in discussions for a potential acquisition deal, with Goldfields initially making an offer to buy Gold Road which was rejected, followed by a counteroffer to buy a stake in Gruyere.Goldfields eventually flew to Perth for face-to-face negotiations, but delays in response led to Goldfields threatening to go public with the offer.The joint venture agreement between Goldfields and Gold Road has previously prevented any acquisition deals, leading to speculation on why a consolidation has not occurred before.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>After rejecting  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold-fields-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25109:1" rel="noopener">Gold Fields (GFI SJ)</a>'s Offer last month, calling terms “low ball and opportunistic”, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold-road-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6698:1" rel="noopener">Gold Road (GOR AU)</a> has done a bang-up job how NOT to underpin that position.</li>
<li>After correcting minor information (on the 4th April) to an Australian Roadshow Investor Presentation, GOR has now retracted details of the underground mining potential at the Gruyere mine.</li>
<li>But don't expect any new developments in this transaction until after <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/de-grey-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6192:1" rel="noopener">De Grey Mining (DEG AU)</a>'s Scheme vote on the 16th April.</li>
</ul>


After rejecting  Gold Fields (GFI SJ)'s Offer last month, calling terms “low ball and opportunistic”, Gold Road (GOR AU) has done a bang-up job how NOT to underpin that position.
After correcting minor information (on the 4th April) to an Australian Roadshow Investor Presentation, GOR has now retracted details of the underground mining potential at the Gruyere mine.
But don't expect any new developments in this transaction until after De Grey Mining (DEG AU)'s Scheme vote on the 16th April.


Gold Road (GOR AU)'s U-Turn On Gruyere's Underground Mine Estimates

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25" rel="noopener">Travis Lundy</a> succinctly summarised the Trump Tariffs in<a href="https://skr.ma/6dWRS" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Trump Team's Weird Tariff Math - Not Meant to Be Negotiated</a>. Do read his note.</li>
<li>From an arb standpoint, most (all?) NBIOs will likely see a downward revision in pricing. Vote risk should also be reduced.</li>
<li>Such tariffs on predominantly domestic businesses should not trigger material adverse changes (MACs) Down Under. But it is still a worthwhile project to dig a little deeper.  </li>
</ul>



Travis Lundy succinctly summarised the Trump Tariffs in Trump Team's Weird Tariff Math - Not Meant to Be Negotiated. Do read his note.
From an arb standpoint, most (all?) NBIOs will likely see a downward revision in pricing. Vote risk should also be reduced.
Such tariffs on predominantly domestic businesses should not trigger material adverse changes (MACs) Down Under. But it is still a worthwhile project to dig a little deeper.  


Quantitative Equity Analyst, DMA

Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

Quantitative Equity Analyst

Technology-First Company

DMA is a technology-first company that provides an end-to-end SaaS solution to institutional investors. DMA enables regulated entities like asset managers, wealth managers, investment managers and financial advisors to connect their front and back office, break silos and reduce headcount.

<ul><li>Since the introduction of the Shareholder Weighted indices (SWIX) in July 2003, fund managers with South African equity mandates have had an array of benchmarks to choose from.</li><li>The SWIX was introduced at a time when resources made up more than 50% of the Top 40.</li><li>The SWIX methodology addressed this concentration by adjusting the float of dual-listed entities to reflect shares held by South African residents (eg. AGL, BHP).</li></ul>

Since the introduction of the Shareholder Weighted indices (SWIX) in July 2003, fund managers with South African equity mandates have had an array of benchmarks to choose from.The SWIX was introduced at a time when resources made up more than 50% of the Top 40.The SWIX methodology addressed this concentration by adjusting the float of dual-listed entities to reflect shares held by South African residents (eg. AGL, BHP).

JSE Mar 24 Harmonisation - Is Your Benchmark Changing?

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>Despite gold hitting record highs this month, ownership of key gold mining stocks among EM managers remains muted.</li>
<li>AngloGold Ashanti and Harmony Gold Mining have both experienced consistent gains in ownership since their 2023 lows.</li>
<li>Oaktree, Overstone and Vontobel EM strategies hold some of the larger portfolio positions in select Gold stocks.</li>
</ul>


Despite gold hitting record highs this month, ownership of key gold mining stocks among EM managers remains muted.
AngloGold Ashanti and Harmony Gold Mining have both experienced consistent gains in ownership since their 2023 lows.
Oaktree, Overstone and Vontobel EM strategies hold some of the larger portfolio positions in select Gold stocks.


South Africa

Gold Fields Ltd is a gold producer with annualised production of approx. 2.0 million gold equivalent ounces from six operating mines in Australia, Ghana, Peru and South Africa. The Company has four major projects at resource development or feasibility level.

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Gold Fields Ltd (GFI SJ)

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Money of Mine

Gold Road (GOR AU)'s U-Turn On Gruyere's Underground Mine Estimates

Trading ~2.8% adrift of the NBIO terms.There's probably limited fallout from retracting the underground mine figures. I still expect Gold Fields to...

David Blennerhassett

Aussie Arbs: Trump Tariffs And MACs

Trump tariffs could affect MACs in Aussie Schemes/Offers. The likelihood depends on a company’s exposure to the U.S., the specific terms of the...

David Blennerhassett

JSE Mar 24 Harmonisation - Is Your Benchmark Changing?

Since the introduction of the Shareholder Weighted indices (SWIX) in July 2003, fund managers with South African equity mandates have had an array...

DMA

Gold Miners: Off the Radar

Despite gold hitting record highs this month, ownership of key gold mining stocks among active emerging markets managers remains muted.

Steven Holden

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