ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bukalapak-com-pt-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33575:1" rel="noopener">Bukalapak</a> continues to demonstrate the effectiveness of circular nature of its business model in 2Q2023, with demand from its O2O business fueling growth in its marketplace, creating a flywheel effect.</li>
<li>Although TPV growth slowed slightly in 2Q2023, revenues saw much stronger growth, especially its marketplace business, which booked much higher take-rates driven by its specialty verticals, including gaming and gadgets.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bukalapak-com-pt-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33575:1" rel="noopener">Bukalapak</a> will continue to benefit from expanding take rates as specialty, such as AlloFresh feed in more SKUs and new verticals gain traction. Valuations remain attractive on 0.85x FY2023E EV/Sales.</li>
</ul>



Bukalapak continues to demonstrate the effectiveness of circular nature of its business model in 2Q2023, with demand from its O2O business fueling growth in its marketplace, creating a flywheel effect.
Although TPV growth slowed slightly in 2Q2023, revenues saw much stronger growth, especially its marketplace business, which booked much higher take-rates driven by its specialty verticals, including gaming and gadgets.

Bukalapak will continue to benefit from expanding take rates as specialty, such as AlloFresh feed in more SKUs and new verticals gain traction. Valuations remain attractive on 0.85x FY2023E EV/Sales.


Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) - A Virtuous Circle to Profitability

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Beenos revealed a ¥300m buyback plan in 2QFY23 and recently declared a ¥500m buyback in 3QFY23. This incremental buybacks is likely to continue due to disposal of incubator investments.</li>
<li>The cash balance of 34% of total assets and over 49% of market cap, supports the ongoing buyback trend even if incubator divestments take longer than expected.</li>
<li>Hence, we expect <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beenos-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18023:1" rel="noopener">Beenos Inc (3328 JP)</a>’s Holdco discount to move closer to the 20% mark, potentially resulting in a 75% upside in the short term.</li>
</ul>


Beenos revealed a ¥300m buyback plan in 2QFY23 and recently declared a ¥500m buyback in 3QFY23. This incremental buybacks is likely to continue due to disposal of incubator investments.
The cash balance of 34% of total assets and over 49% of market cap, supports the ongoing buyback trend even if incubator divestments take longer than expected.
Hence, we expect Beenos Inc (3328 JP)’s Holdco discount to move closer to the 20% mark, potentially resulting in a 75% upside in the short term.


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nusantara-sejahtera-raya-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39908:1" rel="noopener">Cinema XXI</a> raised around US$150m in its Indonesia IPO, after pricing at the bottom-end.</li>
<li>Cinema XXI is a premium theatrical exhibition, F&amp;B and experience company. It is the largest cinema chain operator in Indonesia.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company's past performance and undertaken a peer comparison and valuation in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Cinema XXI raised around US$150m in its Indonesia IPO, after pricing at the bottom-end.
Cinema XXI is a premium theatrical exhibition, F&amp;B and experience company. It is the largest cinema chain operator in Indonesia.
We have looked at the company's past performance and undertaken a peer comparison and valuation in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.


Nusantara Sejahtera Raya (Cinema XXI) IPO Trading - Should Be a Steady Listing

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a> released a solid set of numbers in 1H2023, with growth across most of its divisions from autos to heavy equipment, and infrastructure.</li>
<li>1H2023 was marked by a series of acquisitions across growth areas of the Indonesian economy including nickel, digital health, data centres, and classifieds.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International</a> remains our top proxy pick for exposure to Indonesia, with recent acquisitions making the company all the relevant in new areas of growth.</li>
</ul>



Astra International (ASII IJ) released a solid set of numbers in 1H2023, with growth across most of its divisions from autos to heavy equipment, and infrastructure.
1H2023 was marked by a series of acquisitions across growth areas of the Indonesian economy including nickel, digital health, data centres, and classifieds.

Astra International remains our top proxy pick for exposure to Indonesia, with recent acquisitions making the company all the relevant in new areas of growth.


Astra International (ASII IJ) - Increasingly Omnipresent

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>The changes to the LQ45/IDX30 were announced last week and will be implemented Monday. The PSE also announced that there would be no changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philippines-stock-exchange-psei-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22912:1" rel="noopener">PCOMP INDEX</a> in August.</li>
<li>There are a bunch of review cutoffs on Monday, most notably for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50 INDEX</a>, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY</a> family of indices and the KRX New Deal indices.</li>
<li>There were inflows to China focused ETFs and outflows from Taiwan and Korea focused ETFs during the week.</li>
</ul>


The changes to the LQ45/IDX30 were announced last week and will be implemented Monday. The PSE also announced that there would be no changes for the PCOMP INDEX in August.
There are a bunch of review cutoffs on Monday, most notably for the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX), STAR50 INDEX, the NIFTY family of indices and the KRX New Deal indices.
There were inflows to China focused ETFs and outflows from Taiwan and Korea focused ETFs during the week.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: LQ45/IDX30, FXI, New Deal, KOSPI, KQ150, LG Energy, IN Float, TTMT

Indonesia

PT GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk operates as an e-commerce platform. The Company offers mobility, food delivery, logistics, e-commerce, and financial technology solutions. GoTo Gojek Tokopedia serves customers in Indonesia.

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GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT (GOTO IJ)

Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) - A Virtuous Circle to Profitability

Bukalapak continued to demonstrate the effectiveness of the circular nature of its model in 2Q2023, with demand from its O2O business fueling...

Angus Mackintosh

Beenos: Ramps Up Buybacks

Beenos revealed a ¥300m buyback plan in 2QFY23 and recently declared a ¥500m buyback in 3QFY23. This incremental buybacks is likely to continue due...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Nusantara Sejahtera Raya (Cinema XXI) IPO Trading - Should Be a Steady Listing

Nusantara Sejahtera (Cinema XXI) raised around US$150m in its Indonesia IPO. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

Sumeet Singh

Astra International (ASII IJ) - Increasingly Omnipresent

Astra International remains our top proxy pick for exposure to Indonesia, with recent acquisitions making the company all the relevant in new areas...

Angus Mackintosh

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: LQ45/IDX30, FXI, New Deal, KOSPI, KQ150, LG Energy, IN Float, TTMT

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

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