ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ)</a> booked an encouraging set of 1Q2024 results which provided a first look at the new structure, whereby suddenly e-commerce became cashflow positive for the company. </li>
<li>The company booked strong headline growth with core GMV increasing by +32% YoY, despite incentive &amp; product spending decreasing by -31% YoY, whilst adjusted EBITDA losses fell -89% YoY. </li>
<li>GoTo will drive growth less through incentives and more through innovative products, increasing the user base, and focusing on retention through its subscription products, with fintech becoming increasingly important. </li>
</ul>



GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) booked an encouraging set of 1Q2024 results which provided a first look at the new structure, whereby suddenly e-commerce became cashflow positive for the company. 
The company booked strong headline growth with core GMV increasing by +32% YoY, despite incentive &amp; product spending decreasing by -31% YoY, whilst adjusted EBITDA losses fell -89% YoY. 
GoTo will drive growth less through incentives and more through innovative products, increasing the user base, and focusing on retention through its subscription products, with fintech becoming increasingly important. 


GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) - Metamorphosis

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ)</a> 4Q2023 results revealed another sequential increase in GTV and positive adjusted EBITDA for both ODS and e-commerce, despite reduced incentive and marketing spending.</li>
<li>GoTo achieved positive top-line growth by expanding its total addressable market through more affordable products and a strong performance from consumer lending in fintech, coupled with great cash cost efficiencies.</li>
<li>2024 will be a transformational year for GoTo without the yoke of Tokopedia promotional spending but with significant cash coming in every quarter that can be used to drive growth.</li>
</ul>



GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) 4Q2023 results revealed another sequential increase in GTV and positive adjusted EBITDA for both ODS and e-commerce, despite reduced incentive and marketing spending.
GoTo achieved positive top-line growth by expanding its total addressable market through more affordable products and a strong performance from consumer lending in fintech, coupled with great cash cost efficiencies.
2024 will be a transformational year for GoTo without the yoke of Tokopedia promotional spending but with significant cash coming in every quarter that can be used to drive growth.


GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) - Warming Up the New Engines of Growth

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT (GOTO IJ)</a> reported 4Q2023 results yesterday which shows that the company’s profitability has significantly improved.</li>
<li>The improvement in profitability has come at the cost of growth which has continued to decline suggesting profits may not be sustained.</li>
<li>GoTo announced that it has completed the Tokopedia partnership deal with TikTok and also a plan to buyback shares, subject to regulatory/shareholder approval.</li>
</ul>



GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT (GOTO IJ) reported 4Q2023 results yesterday which shows that the company’s profitability has significantly improved.
The improvement in profitability has come at the cost of growth which has continued to decline suggesting profits may not be sustained.
GoTo announced that it has completed the Tokopedia partnership deal with TikTok and also a plan to buyback shares, subject to regulatory/shareholder approval.


GoTo 4Q2023: Improved Profitability and a Plan to Buyback Shares to Rescue Falling Share Price

<ul>
<li>Press reports suggest that a merger between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo Gojek Tokopedia</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grab-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab</a> is back on the table, which is ironic given the progress of both companies towards profitability. </li>
<li>Any merger may encounter anti-trust issues in Indonesia, with some fallout for drivers and potentially merchants, which may encounter resistance from the government and even potential demonstrations but not insurmountable.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grab-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab</a> should book a net profit in 2025 plus higher growth, as its barbell strategy gains traction, but a <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo</a> merger could move the dial towards much higher profitability.</li>
</ul>


Press reports suggest that a merger between GoTo Gojek Tokopedia and Grab is back on the table, which is ironic given the progress of both companies towards profitability. 
Any merger may encounter anti-trust issues in Indonesia, with some fallout for drivers and potentially merchants, which may encounter resistance from the government and even potential demonstrations but not insurmountable.

Grab should book a net profit in 2025 plus higher growth, as its barbell strategy gains traction, but a GoTo merger could move the dial towards much higher profitability.


Grab Holdings (GRAB US) - GoTo Merger Rears Its Head?

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Indonesian stock market was down 2% over the last year despite a flurry of inflows in the summer but this year looks interesting with a new government in place. </li>
<li>GDP growth forecasts are more optimistic for 2025 and government stimulus should help to drive higher consumption, with FDI driven by more value-added investments in the EV-related projects. </li>
<li>Increasing digitalisation of the economy and greater use of AI will drive profitability and data centre growth. Interest rates are expected to fall -50-100bps which should also be supportive.</li>
</ul>


The Indonesian stock market was down 2% over the last year despite a flurry of inflows in the summer but this year looks interesting with a new government in place. 
GDP growth forecasts are more optimistic for 2025 and government stimulus should help to drive higher consumption, with FDI driven by more value-added investments in the EV-related projects. 
Increasing digitalisation of the economy and greater use of AI will drive profitability and data centre growth. Interest rates are expected to fall -50-100bps which should also be supportive.


CrossASEAN Indonesia Strategy - Parting Clouds

Indonesia

PT GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk operates as an e-commerce platform. The Company offers mobility, food delivery, logistics, e-commerce, and financial technology solutions. GoTo Gojek Tokopedia serves customers in Indonesia.

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GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT (GOTO IJ)

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) - Metamorphosis

GoTo will drive growth less through incentives but more through innovative products, user base, and retention through its subscription products,...

Angus Mackintosh

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) - Warming Up the New Engines of Growth

2024 will be a transformational year for GoTo without the yoke of Tokopedia promotional spending but with significant cash coming in every quarter...

Angus Mackintosh

Grab Holdings (GRAB US) - GoTo Merger Rears Its Head?

Grab should book a net profit in 2025 plus higher growth, as its barbell strategy gains traction, but a GoTo merger could move the dial towards...

Angus Mackintosh

CrossASEAN Indonesia Strategy - Parting Clouds

The Indonesian stock market was down 2% over the last year despite a flurry of inflows in the summer but this year looks interesting with a new...

Angus Mackintosh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) - Metamorphosis

GoTo will drive growth less through incentives but more through innovative products, user base, and retention through its subscription products,...

Angus Mackintosh

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) - Warming Up the New Engines of Growth

2024 will be a transformational year for GoTo without the yoke of Tokopedia promotional spending but with significant cash coming in every quarter...

Angus Mackintosh

GoTo 4Q2023: Improved Profitability and a Plan to Buyback Shares to Rescue Falling Share Price

​GoTo reported improved profitability in 4Q2023, but declining growth raises concerns about sustainability. Despite improved profitability and a...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Grab Holdings (GRAB US) - GoTo Merger Rears Its Head?

Grab should book a net profit in 2025 plus higher growth, as its barbell strategy gains traction, but a GoTo merger could move the dial towards...

Angus Mackintosh

CrossASEAN Indonesia Strategy - Parting Clouds

The Indonesian stock market was down 2% over the last year despite a flurry of inflows in the summer but this year looks interesting with a new...

Angus Mackintosh

GoTo reported improved profitability in 4Q2023, but declining growth raises concerns about sustainability. Despite improved profitability and a...