Japanese news, equities, and trends, Teddy Letter

Teddy Okuyama

Japanese news, equities, and trends

Teddy Letter

We aim to fill the information gap on the Japan market, especially on small cap companies with little or no analyst coverage. While brokerages and sponsored research provide useful information, there is still an information divide between domestic and foreign investors. We aim to fill that gap by providing access to insights that are lost in translation.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>This is installment #6 of my 200-day challenge to do write-ups on 200 Japanese small caps, at the end of which I plan to publish a book (tentative title: Japan Small Caps Handbook). I’m writing these unedited versions in a stream of consciousness style, and they will be refined before being finalized later on.</p>

This is installment #6 of my 200-day challenge to do write-ups on 200 Japanese small caps, at the end of which I plan to publish a book (tentative title: Japan Small Caps Handbook). I’m writing these unedited versions in a stream of consciousness style, and they will be refined before being finalized later on.

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/147/085/original/2020-07-21_06-31-46.png?1595280841" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="147085"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/147/086/original/2020-07-21_06-31-04.png?1595281006" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="147086"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/147/087/original/2020-07-21_06-44-10.png?1595281527" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="147087"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>
<p><strong>Genky DrugStores (9267 JP)</strong> - Genky, listed in December 2017 and the eleventh largest listed drugstore chain in Japan, <span>was nearly Oversold in the first quarter.</span><span> As a result, the shares have been the best performing in the fifteen-string Peer Group over the last three months. The company's upward revisions to sales and operating profits of 9% and 21%, respectively match peer-trends. The recent share price rally has brought Genky back into line. The company is, however, one of only three chains that fail to earn a positive residual return on Net Operating Assets, Genky also has the highest debt/equity ratio of any listed chain. The company does not deserve any peer-premium, and we would sell into any revision-induced strength.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p>
</div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>2 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Results Score</strong>: 0 Positive / 0 Neutral / 2 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> -7.0</li>
<li>
<strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -12..% Quarter YoY / +0.8% Rolling TTM YoY</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> +0.1ppt</li>
<li>
<strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 0%</li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><br><strong>4 Annual • 8 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 1 Positive / 1 Neutral / 2 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 2 Positive / 0 Neutral / 6 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -6.8</li>
</ul></div>


Source • Japan Analytics
Genky DrugStores (9267 JP) - Genky, listed in December 2017 and the eleventh largest listed drugstore chain in Japan, was nearly Oversold in the first quarter. As a result, the shares have been the best performing in the fifteen-string Peer Group over the last three months. The company's upward revisions to sales and operating profits of 9% and 21%, respectively match peer-trends. The recent share price rally has brought Genky back into line. The company is, however, one of only three chains that fail to earn a positive residual return on Net Operating Assets, Genky also has the highest debt/equity ratio of any listed chain. The company does not deserve any peer-premium, and we would sell into any revision-induced strength.
DAILY STATS
2 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 0 Positive / 0 Neutral / 2 Negative

Average Results Score Change: -7.0

Average % Change in Revenue: -12..% Quarter YoY / +0.8% Rolling TTM YoY

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: +0.1ppt

Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 0%
 4 Annual • 8 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 1 Positive / 1 Neutral / 2 Negative

Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 2 Positive / 0 Neutral / 6 Negative

Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -6.8


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 20th July - Genki Genky, Alinco, Komatsu Wall, GMO-AD Partners

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<p>In mid-February 2020, upon releasing full-year earnings, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gmo-internet-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13631:1" rel="noopener">GMO Internet (9449 JP)</a> announced a buyback programme which looked big but had some interesting and distinguishing characteristics given where the shares were and what the ownership structure was. This was discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/gmo-internet-9449-buyback-bigger-than-it-looks-smaller-than-it-looks" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:36580" rel="noopener">GMO Internet (9449) Buyback - Bigger Than It Looks, Smaller Than It Looks</a>. </p><p>The Investment/Trading Conclusion offered was Bullish (see the green line at the top) for some specific reasons hinted at in the title (you want to know why? Read the first piece or see below).</p><p>The stock closed at ¥2179 that day. The shares were up for two days. Then everything fell apart as COVID-19 caused the market to fall out of bed in Asia earlier than in the west. Since then, TOPIX is down 15.8% but GMO Internet is up 16.4% so it has seen decent outperformance in the 90 days since then. </p><h2>The NEW News</h2><p><a href="https://ir.gmo.jp/pdf/presen/GMO_FY20_Q1_Consolidated_Results_Statement_200512.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Q1 earnings</a> were out on the 12th. Revenues were up 14.6% yoy, OP is up 65%, and Net Profit is +11.4%. The stock gained more than 10% yesterday on the highest volume since Q1 earnings last year, and fell back a bit today.</p><p>TODAY after the close, after having <a href="https://ir.gmo.jp/pdf/irlibrary/gmo_disclose_info20200512_01.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> the progress programme-to-date of its buyback on 12 May (1.28mm shares for ¥2.48bn), the company <a href="https://ir.gmo.jp/pdf/irlibrary/gmo_disclose_info2020514.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a ToSTNeT-3 buyback to be executed tomorrow morning, of up to 3.153mm shares and up to ¥8bn at today's close of ¥2,537/share. </p><p>Assuming the company buys back all 3.153mm shares they bid, that will mean 70% of the monies allocated for the buyback program lasting through next February will have been used, and at current price, that would mean the company could buy back another 1.78mm shares, maximum. That is about 1.6% of shares out and a bit under three days of volume. </p><p>It's worth looking at where we stand now.</p>

In mid-February 2020, upon releasing full-year earnings, GMO Internet (9449 JP) announced a buyback programme which looked big but had some interesting and distinguishing characteristics given where the shares were and what the ownership structure was. This was discussed in GMO Internet (9449) Buyback - Bigger Than It Looks, Smaller Than It Looks. The Investment/Trading Conclusion offered was Bullish (see the green line at the top) for some specific reasons hinted at in the title (you want to know why? Read the first piece or see below).The stock closed at ¥2179 that day. The shares were up for two days. Then everything fell apart as COVID-19 caused the market to fall out of bed in Asia earlier than in the west. Since then, TOPIX is down 15.8% but GMO Internet is up 16.4% so it has seen decent outperformance in the 90 days since then. The NEW NewsQ1 earnings were out on the 12th. Revenues were up 14.6% yoy, OP is up 65%, and Net Profit is +11.4%. The stock gained more than 10% yesterday on the highest volume since Q1 earnings last year, and fell back a bit today.TODAY after the close, after having announced the progress programme-to-date of its buyback on 12 May (1.28mm shares for ¥2.48bn), the company announced a ToSTNeT-3 buyback to be executed tomorrow morning, of up to 3.153mm shares and up to ¥8bn at today's close of ¥2,537/share. Assuming the company buys back all 3.153mm shares they bid, that will mean 70% of the monies allocated for the buyback program lasting through next February will have been used, and at current price, that would mean the company could buy back another 1.78mm shares, maximum. That is about 1.6% of shares out and a bit under three days of volume. It's worth looking at where we stand now.

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/david-blennerhassett" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:840" rel="noopener">David Blennerhassett</a> has written about <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gmo-internet-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13631:1" rel="noopener">GMO Internet (9449 JP)</a> over the years as an interesting holdco and most recently wrote about the situation as both a holdco and corporate governance situation in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/gmo-internet-listed-holdings-preferred" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:29641" rel="noopener">GMO Internet: Listed Holdings Preferred</a>. Others including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/campbell-gunn" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2531" rel="noopener">Campbell Gunn</a> have written about it <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gmo-internet-inc/insights?item=27803" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>.</p>
<p>The stock has been the subject of activist interest in the past few years, and as such it has enjoyed a fair bit of press as well, though not always laudatory.</p>
<h2>The NEW News Yesterday</h2>
<p>The NEW News yesterday was that the company reported full-year earnings, with consolidated revenues climbing 5.9% to ¥196.2bn, OP climbing 16.0% to ¥25.3bn, and Net Income up sharply from last year's net loss to +¥8.3bn. </p>
<p>The company also announced a downward-facing dividend (i.e. a slight cut in the Q4 dividend for 2019 vs 2018), and most importantly, a <a href="https://ir.gmo.jp/en/pdf/irlibrary/gmo_disclose_info20200212_3_e.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">stock buyback</a>. </p>
<p>It's a big one.</p>
<p>The company announced a buyback of up to ¥15bn or up to 9 million shares (7.95% of shares outstanding). This is an advancement on the company's Total Shareholder Returns Policy instituted in 2016, which stated that the company aimed to return 50% of parent profits to shareholders, with a dividend payout of 33% of total parent earnings, and the rest paid back in the form of share buybacks (but with flexible timing).</p>
<p>Given the share price of recent, assuming no change, it would be a buyback of only 6.9mm shares, which is 6.1% of shares outstanding, but it's a start. </p>

David Blennerhassett has written about GMO Internet (9449 JP) over the years as an interesting holdco and most recently wrote about the situation as both a holdco and corporate governance situation in GMO Internet: Listed Holdings Preferred. Others including Campbell Gunn have written about it here.
The stock has been the subject of activist interest in the past few years, and as such it has enjoyed a fair bit of press as well, though not always laudatory.
The NEW News Yesterday
The NEW News yesterday was that the company reported full-year earnings, with consolidated revenues climbing 5.9% to ¥196.2bn, OP climbing 16.0% to ¥25.3bn, and Net Income up sharply from last year's net loss to +¥8.3bn. 
The company also announced a downward-facing dividend (i.e. a slight cut in the Q4 dividend for 2019 vs 2018), and most importantly, a stock buyback. 
It's a big one.
The company announced a buyback of up to ¥15bn or up to 9 million shares (7.95% of shares outstanding). This is an advancement on the company's Total Shareholder Returns Policy instituted in 2016, which stated that the company aimed to return 50% of parent profits to shareholders, with a dividend payout of 33% of total parent earnings, and the rest paid back in the form of share buybacks (but with flexible timing).
Given the share price of recent, assuming no change, it would be a buyback of only 6.9mm shares, which is 6.1% of shares outstanding, but it's a start. 

GMO Internet (9449) Buyback - Bigger Than It Looks, Smaller Than It Looks

David Blennerhassett

Event-Driven

<p>Applying a deconsolidated book value for the unlisted operations, I see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gmo-internet-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13631:1" rel="noopener">GMO Internet (9449 JP)</a> at a ~30% discount to NAV, a reasonable level for an active holding company structure with eight listed subsidiaries.</p>
<p>It is the complexity of the holdings, both listed and unlisted, and the inability to look through into the financials of the key operating segments, that suggest the 54% gain in the past twelve months is overdone.</p>
<p>Gaining traction on the merits of the unlisted ops at the Holdco have proven to be fleeting, as seen with GMO-i's cryptocurrency frenzy in 2018. The division remains profitable, however, the top-line revenue in the most recent quarter of ¥1.57bn is the second-lowest since the 2018 June-end quarter peak. Shares bottomed out on the 25 December 2018 at ¥1,325 - its lowest level since Aug 2017 and down 56% from its June 2018 high - the same day GMO-i announced a cryptocurrency-related impairment of  <a href="https://ir.gmo.jp/en/pdf/irlibrary/gmo_disclose_info20181225_e.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">¥35.5bn</a>.</p>
<p>Returns from the incubation segment are lumpy with limited visibility; the internet advertising segment recently recorded its second-lowest quarterly operating profit in the last thirteen years; leaving the core competitiveness and inaugural internet infrastructure businesses, which continue to eke out new highs, and the internet finance business. </p>
<p>Given current levels, the opaqueness within the Holdco structure, and perhaps ambitious thinking value can be unlocked via ongoing activism; the recommendation is to be directly invested with the listed subsidiaries in place of the parent.</p>

Applying a deconsolidated book value for the unlisted operations, I see GMO Internet (9449 JP) at a ~30% discount to NAV, a reasonable level for an active holding company structure with eight listed subsidiaries.
It is the complexity of the holdings, both listed and unlisted, and the inability to look through into the financials of the key operating segments, that suggest the 54% gain in the past twelve months is overdone.
Gaining traction on the merits of the unlisted ops at the Holdco have proven to be fleeting, as seen with GMO-i's cryptocurrency frenzy in 2018. The division remains profitable, however, the top-line revenue in the most recent quarter of ¥1.57bn is the second-lowest since the 2018 June-end quarter peak. Shares bottomed out on the 25 December 2018 at ¥1,325 - its lowest level since Aug 2017 and down 56% from its June 2018 high - the same day GMO-i announced a cryptocurrency-related impairment of  ¥35.5bn.
Returns from the incubation segment are lumpy with limited visibility; the internet advertising segment recently recorded its second-lowest quarterly operating profit in the last thirteen years; leaving the core competitiveness and inaugural internet infrastructure businesses, which continue to eke out new highs, and the internet finance business. 
Given current levels, the opaqueness within the Holdco structure, and perhaps ambitious thinking value can be unlocked via ongoing activism; the recommendation is to be directly invested with the listed subsidiaries in place of the parent.

Japan

GMO AD Partners Inc. is a media representative providing internet advertising, mobile advertising, and SEM (Search Engine Marketing) services to medium sized ad agencies.

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Gmo Ad Partners (4784 JP)

Day 6: Fringe81 (6550)

This is installment #6 of my 200-day challenge to do write-ups on 200 Japanese small caps, at the end of which I plan to publish a book (tentative...

Teddy Okuyama

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 20th July - Genki Genky, Alinco, Komatsu Wall, GMO-AD Partners

Genky DrugStores (9267 JP) - Genky, listed in December 2017 and the eleventh largest listed drugstore chain in Japan, was nearly Oversold in the...

Campbell Gunn

GMO Buyback - Approaching The End But...

In mid-February 2020, upon releasing full-year earnings, GMO Internet (9449 JP) announced a buyback programme which looked big but had some...

Travis Lundy

GMO Internet (9449) Buyback - Bigger Than It Looks, Smaller Than It Looks

David Blennerhassett has written about GMO Internet (9449 JP) over the years as an interesting holdco and most recently wrote about the situation...

Travis Lundy

GMO Internet: Listed Holdings Preferred

Applying a deconsolidated book value for the unlisted operations, I see GMO Internet (9449 JP) at a ~30% discount to NAV, a reasonable level for an...

David Blennerhassett

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