Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC looks set for a significant recovery in top-line growth in 2024F, driven by continued faster-than-expected demand for its 3nm volume production leading to significantly improved overall ASP.</li>
<li>This should be supported by a concurrent improvement in the inventory cycle at major clients, helping recover TSMC’s utilisation back to historic norms.</li>
<li>Lower capital intensity, improving internal inventory levels, and accelerating top-line growth should all combine to drive record levels of Free Cash Flow generation during 2024F.</li>
</ul>


TSMC looks set for a significant recovery in top-line growth in 2024F, driven by continued faster-than-expected demand for its 3nm volume production leading to significantly improved overall ASP.
This should be supported by a concurrent improvement in the inventory cycle at major clients, helping recover TSMC’s utilisation back to historic norms.
Lower capital intensity, improving internal inventory levels, and accelerating top-line growth should all combine to drive record levels of Free Cash Flow generation during 2024F.


2024 High Conviction: TSMC (2330 TT) Is Perfectly Poised for Revenue and FCF Growth Acceleration

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The global foundry sales reached US$117bn in 2023, according to Counterpoint.</li><li>The sector showed signs of stabilization in 2H23, helped by surging demand for AI chips and inventory restocking.</li><li>The market growth turned positive to 6.5% and 9.8% QoQ in 3Q/4Q23, per Counterpoint. We hold a positive outlook for semi foundry sector. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The global foundry sales reached US$117bn in 2023, according to Counterpoint.The sector showed signs of stabilization in 2H23, helped by surging demand for AI chips and inventory restocking.The market growth turned positive to 6.5% and 9.8% QoQ in 3Q/4Q23, per Counterpoint. We hold a positive outlook for semi foundry sector. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Semi - Global Foundry Sector Stabilizing in 2024, Modest Recovery Expected in 2025

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank</a> raised around US$4.9bn via selling some of its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arm-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21816:1" rel="noopener">ARM Holdings (ARM US)</a>’ US IPO. Its remaining 90% stake will be released from its IPO linked lockup soon.</li>
<li>ARM develops and licenses high-performance, low-cost, and energy-efficient CPU products and related technology, which is used by semiconductor companies and OEMs to develop their own products.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Softbank raised around US$4.9bn via selling some of its stake in ARM Holdings (ARM US)’ US IPO. Its remaining 90% stake will be released from its IPO linked lockup soon.
ARM develops and licenses high-performance, low-cost, and energy-efficient CPU products and related technology, which is used by semiconductor companies and OEMs to develop their own products.
In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.


ARM Holdings IPO Lock-Up Expiry - A US$127bn Lockup Release Might Be Too Tempting to Pass On

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

<ul><li>Lattice is just too expensive for what it is. It’s one of the highest multiples in the space, but I acknowledge we are closer to the trough than the peak.</li><li>Tokyo Electron continues to be bullish high aspect etch and reports that they are winning in DRAM and hopefully in NAND in the future.</li><li>Arista says that AI revenue is yet to come, and 800G will mostly be in 2025, not 2024. The market got ahead of itself.</li></ul>

Lattice is just too expensive for what it is. It’s one of the highest multiples in the space, but I acknowledge we are closer to the trough than the peak.Tokyo Electron continues to be bullish high aspect etch and reports that they are winning in DRAM and hopefully in NAND in the future.Arista says that AI revenue is yet to come, and 800G will mostly be in 2025, not 2024. The market got ahead of itself.

Earnings (LSCC, ANET, GFS, Tokyo Electron, SITM, ENTG, AMAT)

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

<ul>
<li>The oversupply of 8"/12" mature technology and price war especially within China for the next 5 years is inevitable, especially negative for SMIC and Hua Hong Semi.</li>
<li>Production moving out of China semi demand might increase to 65-70% in next five years to benefit Globalfoundries, UMC, Vanguard, Powerchip mitigating impacts from rising domestic replacement in China.  </li>
<li>By building up in-house fabs, Huawei and HiSilicon supply chain vendors will be benefited the most like semiconductor equipment, material, fab construction, CoWoS interposer, and CoWoS packaging vendors.</li>
</ul>


The oversupply of 8"/12" mature technology and price war especially within China for the next 5 years is inevitable, especially negative for SMIC and Hua Hong Semi.
Production moving out of China semi demand might increase to 65-70% in next five years to benefit Globalfoundries, UMC, Vanguard, Powerchip mitigating impacts from rising domestic replacement in China.  
By building up in-house fabs, Huawei and HiSilicon supply chain vendors will be benefited the most like semiconductor equipment, material, fab construction, CoWoS interposer, and CoWoS packaging vendors.


No Sign of Selling Advanced Scanners by ASML to China Customers, Implications

United States

GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc. operates as a semiconductor contract manufacturing and design company. The Company offers chips designed for markets such as mobility, automotive, computing and wired connectivity, and consumer internet of things (IoT). GLOBALFOUNDRIES serves customers worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

GLOBALFOUNDRIES (GFS US)

2024 High Conviction: TSMC (2330 TT) Is Perfectly Poised for Revenue and FCF Growth Acceleration

Given that we have reached the peak of the Capex cycle, along with normalisation in its internal working capital, and with revenue growth set to...

Wium Malan, CFA

Semi - Global Foundry Sector Stabilizing in 2024, Modest Recovery Expected in 2025

The market growth turned positive to 6.5% and 9.8% QoQ in 3Q/4Q23, per Counterpoint. We hold a positive outlook for semi foundry sector.

CMB International

ARM Holdings IPO Lock-Up Expiry - A US$127bn Lockup Release Might Be Too Tempting to Pass On

Softbank raised around US$4.9bn via selling some of its stake in ARM Holdings (ARM US)’ US IPO. Its remaining 90% stake will be released from its...

Sumeet Singh

Earnings (LSCC, ANET, GFS, Tokyo Electron, SITM, ENTG, AMAT)

Lattice is just too expensive for what it is. It’s one of the highest multiples in the space, but I acknowledge we are closer to the trough than...

Fabricated Knowledge

No Sign of Selling Advanced Scanners by ASML to China Customers, Implications

No Sign of Selling Advanced Scanners by ASML to China Customers, Implications; Huawei and HiSilicon supply chain vendors will be benefited the most

Andrew Lu

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)