Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> has raised wafer prices, with 2nm wafers expected to cost at least 50% more—exceeding USD 30,000 per wafer.   </li>
<li>Rapidus plans to begin 2nm engineering production in 1Q26 and target mass production by 2027, likely one node behind TSMC.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> is expected to be ready for iPhone 17 production.</li>
</ul>



Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) has raised wafer prices, with 2nm wafers expected to cost at least 50% more—exceeding USD 30,000 per wafer.   
Rapidus plans to begin 2nm engineering production in 1Q26 and target mass production by 2027, likely one node behind TSMC.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) is expected to be ready for iPhone 17 production.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): TSMC Has Raised Wafer Prices; Rapidus Provides 2nm Milestone.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a> has not given up on Intel Foundry Service (IFS), even though it currently lacks any sizable clients.</li>
<li>We are puzzled as to why Intel former CEO Pat Gelsinger insisted on entering the foundry market, which has so far weakened Intel’s financials without generating meaningful returns.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qualcomm-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:969:1" rel="noopener">Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US)</a> CEO has publicly stated that Intel’s manufacturing technology is still not competitive.</li>
</ul>



Intel Corp (INTC US) has not given up on Intel Foundry Service (IFS), even though it currently lacks any sizable clients.
We are puzzled as to why Intel former CEO Pat Gelsinger insisted on entering the foundry market, which has so far weakened Intel’s financials without generating meaningful returns.

Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US) CEO has publicly stated that Intel’s manufacturing technology is still not competitive.


Intel (INTC.US): Qualcomm CEO Has Publicly Stated that Intel’s Technology Is Still Not Competitive.

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

United Microelectronics Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>2Q25 was good QoQ: utilization up 7 pct-points, wafer shipments up 6%, US$ ASP up 8%, US$ revenue up 15% QoQ. But NT$ appreciated 13%, cancelling out the operating recovery.</li>
<li>3Q25 guidance: slow US$-revenue growth, NT$-revenue decline. FX leads to both 2Q and 3Q below Consensus by mid-teens%. Big miss despite improving operations: utilization higher, mix better, ASP higher.</li>
<li>The stock is cheap. Outlook is positive in terms of mix improvement, specialty process. But many unknowns (US tariffs, macro overall, NT$) will cloud the outlook for another 2-3 quarters. </li>
</ul>


2Q25 was good QoQ: utilization up 7 pct-points, wafer shipments up 6%, US$ ASP up 8%, US$ revenue up 15% QoQ. But NT$ appreciated 13%, cancelling out the operating recovery.
3Q25 guidance: slow US$-revenue growth, NT$-revenue decline. FX leads to both 2Q and 3Q below Consensus by mid-teens%. Big miss despite improving operations: utilization higher, mix better, ASP higher.
The stock is cheap. Outlook is positive in terms of mix improvement, specialty process. But many unknowns (US tariffs, macro overall, NT$) will cloud the outlook for another 2-3 quarters. 


UMC 2Q25: The Recovery Is Cancelled Out by NT$ Appreciation

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors, The Circuit

The Circuit

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors

A Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors. With Jay Goldberg and Ben Bajarin

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Global Foundries acquiring MIPS, sparking conversation about RISC V's role in the ecosystem</li><li>Global Foundries focusing on offering IP and services in niche markets with potential for growth</li><li>MIPS will continue to operate independently, providing turnkey solutions for RISC V and potential customizations for customers</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Global Foundries acquiring MIPS, sparking conversation about RISC V's role in the ecosystemGlobal Foundries focusing on offering IP and services in niche markets with potential for growthMIPS will continue to operate independently, providing turnkey solutions for RISC V and potential customizations for customersThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

EP 125: What's Going on with RISC-V? Update on Intel, Everything is AI!

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Tax credit increase from 25% to 35% (portion of investment deducted from taxable income), which becomes as impactful in $ as the direct subsidies or about $40bn. </li>
<li>The US is working hard to make Semi investments more attractive. Subsidies, loans and tax credits altogether now approach $150bn. </li>
<li>That could mitigate a little bit of TSMC price increase in Arizona. But it’s not massive. The impact of tax credits increase from 2% of revenue to 3%. </li>
</ul>


Tax credit increase from 25% to 35% (portion of investment deducted from taxable income), which becomes as impactful in $ as the direct subsidies or about $40bn. 
The US is working hard to make Semi investments more attractive. Subsidies, loans and tax credits altogether now approach $150bn. 
That could mitigate a little bit of TSMC price increase in Arizona. But it’s not massive. The impact of tax credits increase from 2% of revenue to 3%. 


US Congress’s Gift to Semiconductor Manufacturers: 35% Tax Credit on Investments

United States

GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc. operates as a semiconductor contract manufacturing and design company. The Company offers chips designed for markets such as mobility, automotive, computing and wired connectivity, and consumer internet of things (IoT). GLOBALFOUNDRIES serves customers worldwide.

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GLOBALFOUNDRIES (GFS US)

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): TSMC Has Raised Wafer Prices; Rapidus Provides 2nm Milestone.

TSMC raises wafer prices for 2nm chips, with costs exceeding $30,000 per wafer, positioning itself ahead of Rapidus in production timeline and...

Patrick Liao

Intel (INTC.US): Qualcomm CEO Has Publicly Stated that Intel’s Technology Is Still Not Competitive.

Intel has so far weakened its IFS financials without generating meaningful returns, while Qualcomm has publicly stated Intel’s manufacturing...

Patrick Liao

UMC 2Q25: The Recovery Is Cancelled Out by NT$ Appreciation

2Q25 showed strong performance but NT$ appreciation offset gains. 3Q25 guidance predicts slow US$-revenue growth, NT$ decline, despite operational...

Nicolas Baratte

EP 125: What's Going on with RISC-V? Update on Intel, Everything is AI!

GlobalFoundries acquires MIPS to enhance their offerings in RISC V technology for Edge, IoT, and embedded systems, aiming to provide better IP and...

The Circuit

US Congress’s Gift to Semiconductor Manufacturers: 35% Tax Credit on Investments

US increases tax credit for semiconductor investments from 25% to 35%, as impactful as direct subsidies at about $40bn, part of $150bn in total...

Nicolas Baratte

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TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): TSMC Has Raised Wafer Prices; Rapidus Provides 2nm Milestone.

​TSMC raises wafer prices for 2nm chips, with costs exceeding $30,000 per wafer, positioning itself ahead of Rapidus in production timeline and...

Patrick Liao

Intel (INTC.US): Qualcomm CEO Has Publicly Stated that Intel’s Technology Is Still Not Competitive.

Intel has so far weakened its IFS financials without generating meaningful returns, while Qualcomm has publicly stated Intel’s manufacturing...

Patrick Liao

UMC 2Q25: The Recovery Is Cancelled Out by NT$ Appreciation

​2Q25 showed strong performance but NT$ appreciation offset gains. 3Q25 guidance predicts slow US$-revenue growth, NT$ decline, despite operational...

Nicolas Baratte

EP 125: What's Going on with RISC-V? Update on Intel, Everything is AI!

GlobalFoundries acquires MIPS to enhance their offerings in RISC V technology for Edge, IoT, and embedded systems, aiming to provide better IP and...

The Circuit

US Congress’s Gift to Semiconductor Manufacturers: 35% Tax Credit on Investments

​US increases tax credit for semiconductor investments from 25% to 35%, as impactful as direct subsidies at about $40bn, part of $150bn in total...

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC raises wafer prices for 2nm chips, with costs exceeding $30,000 per wafer, positioning itself ahead of Rapidus in production timeline and...

2Q25 showed strong performance but NT$ appreciation offset gains. 3Q25 guidance predicts slow US$-revenue growth, NT$ decline, despite operational...

US increases tax credit for semiconductor investments from 25% to 35%, as impactful as direct subsidies at about $40bn, part of $150bn in total...