Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ginebra-san-miguel-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23029:1" rel="noopener">Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM)</a> reported a solid Q3 FY24, with revenues/profits up 15%/25% YoY, led by 5% volume growth (10% YTD growth).</li>
<li>Net cash and investments are now &gt;15 bn pesos (21% of market capitalization). For Q4 2024, the company paid a dividend of 4 pesos/share (6.2% dividend yield). </li>
<li>This is one of the cheapest liquor companies we know, trading at 10x FY24 PE/6.3 EV-EBITDA. It has a &gt;33% ROCE and a great growth/dividend payment profile.</li>
</ul>



Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM) reported a solid Q3 FY24, with revenues/profits up 15%/25% YoY, led by 5% volume growth (10% YTD growth).
Net cash and investments are now &gt;15 bn pesos (21% of market capitalization). For Q4 2024, the company paid a dividend of 4 pesos/share (6.2% dividend yield). 
This is one of the cheapest liquor companies we know, trading at 10x FY24 PE/6.3 EV-EBITDA. It has a &gt;33% ROCE and a great growth/dividend payment profile.


Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM) Q3 2024: Solid Set of Numbers And Increasing Dividends

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ginebra-san-miguel-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23029:1" rel="noopener">Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/the-keepers-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23003:1" rel="noopener">The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM)</a> are leading names in the alcohol space, with a 97% marketshare in gin/70% marketshare in imported liquor distribution, respectively. </li>
<li>Despite both stocks being up &gt;70% in FY24 (including dividends), they trade at modest valuations of ~10x FY24 PE, net cash, historical ROCEs &gt;20%, and 5% dividend yields. </li>
<li>Both companies are primed for revenue/profit CAGR teen growth, and we see great potential for a multiple rerate this year.</li>
</ul>



Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM) and The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM) are leading names in the alcohol space, with a 97% marketshare in gin/70% marketshare in imported liquor distribution, respectively. 
Despite both stocks being up &gt;70% in FY24 (including dividends), they trade at modest valuations of ~10x FY24 PE, net cash, historical ROCEs &gt;20%, and 5% dividend yields. 
Both companies are primed for revenue/profit CAGR teen growth, and we see great potential for a multiple rerate this year.


Previewing FY24 Earnings For Two Market Leaders in the Philippines: GSMI PM/KEEPR PM

<ul>
<li>We are gradually building a high-conviction coverage of ideas for the mid and small-caps in the Philippines.</li>
<li>We set criteria for high ROCE, reasonable growth (10-15% YoY), strong balance sheets, and reasonable capital allocation (dividend yields), all ingredients for being multi-baggers.</li>
<li>We summarize some updates for our top year-end picks: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/digiplus-interactive-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23060:1" rel="noopener">DigiPlus Interactive (PLUS PM)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ginebra-san-miguel-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23029:1" rel="noopener">Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/the-keepers-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23003:1" rel="noopener">The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM)</a> </li>
</ul>


We are gradually building a high-conviction coverage of ideas for the mid and small-caps in the Philippines.
We set criteria for high ROCE, reasonable growth (10-15% YoY), strong balance sheets, and reasonable capital allocation (dividend yields), all ingredients for being multi-baggers.
We summarize some updates for our top year-end picks: DigiPlus Interactive (PLUS PM), Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM), and The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM) 


Shortlist of High Conviction Philippines Equity Ideas - December 2024

<ul>
<li>We are slowly building out a high-conviction coverage of ideas for the mid and small-caps in the Philippines. </li>
<li>We set criteria for high ROCE, reasonable growth (10-15% YoY), strong balance sheets, and reasonable capital allocation (dividend yields), all ingredients for being multi-baggers. </li>
<li>We like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ginebra-san-miguel-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23029:1" rel="noopener">Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/the-keepers-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23003:1" rel="noopener">The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/digiplus-interactive-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23060:1" rel="noopener">DigiPlus Interactive (PLUS PM)</a>. We will also be exploring <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/centro-escolar-university" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22989:1" rel="noopener">Centro Escolar University (CEU PM)</a> </li>
</ul>


We are slowly building out a high-conviction coverage of ideas for the mid and small-caps in the Philippines. 
We set criteria for high ROCE, reasonable growth (10-15% YoY), strong balance sheets, and reasonable capital allocation (dividend yields), all ingredients for being multi-baggers. 
We like Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM), The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM), DigiPlus Interactive (PLUS PM). We will also be exploring Centro Escolar University (CEU PM) 


Shortlist of High Conviction Philippines Equity Ideas

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ginebra-san-miguel-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23029:1" rel="noopener">Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM)</a> is a monopoly in the gin business in the Philippines with a 97% marketshare trading at 7x PE FY24 ( 10-Yr Revenue CAGR 15% YoY).</li>
<li>After its Q1 results, it has 32% of the market cap in net cash and investments, a dividend yield of&gt;7%, and a 5/10 Yr average ROCE of 37%/22%.</li>
<li>We summarize what we learned from the annual report released on April 15th. We saw a long-term trend of increasing prices, consistent margin growth, balance sheet improvement, etc. </li>
</ul>



Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM) is a monopoly in the gin business in the Philippines with a 97% marketshare trading at 7x PE FY24 ( 10-Yr Revenue CAGR 15% YoY).
After its Q1 results, it has 32% of the market cap in net cash and investments, a dividend yield of&gt;7%, and a 5/10 Yr average ROCE of 37%/22%.
We summarize what we learned from the annual report released on April 15th. We saw a long-term trend of increasing prices, consistent margin growth, balance sheet improvement, etc. 


Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM): Gleanings From The Last 12 Years of Annual Reports and Q1 2024 Bonanza

Philippines

Ginebra San Miguel Inc. manufactures and distributes liquor products. Ginebra San Miguel's products are marketed under brand names such as Ginebra San Miguel, Anejo Rum, Tondena Manila Rum, VIVA!, and Magnolia FunChum.

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Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM)