Positioning Watch – Spread-trades are the way to play the current environment
Very interesting dynamics in markets lately, with the NFP report Friday shocking markets at first glance before sending them back into rally-mode,...
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EUR-Flation Watch: Why the ECB Is off by Miles in the Q1 Forecast
After having updated our models, we see March HICP printing at 1.84% versus ECB at 2.9% (Q1-average) and a market pricing of 2.25% (or thereabout)
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Part Five: The German Vulnerability
The fact that the UK yield curve has flattened more than Germany's is puzzling. This could indicate that the UK economy is on the brink of a deep...
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NEW EU FISCAL RULES – Victory for the Expansionists or the Prudentials?
Amidst the prospect of a soft landing and lower interest rates, the European Council unanimously voted in favor of reinstating fiscal safeguards...
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Out of the Box #25: Europe. From Technical Recession to an Real One?
EUR duration still has further to go and we remain long- soft landing cuts or emergency cuts should leave the long end lower.
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