Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Wow! What a day in the markets with the Trump trade roaring in the FX space, bond space, and equity space.</li><li>Buying U.S.-based equities in spread to, for example, Germany and China has yielded significant profits for us.</li><li>The unrest in both China and Germany makes Trump’s victory particularly ill-timed for those markets in several ways.</li></ul>

Wow! What a day in the markets with the Trump trade roaring in the FX space, bond space, and equity space.Buying U.S.-based equities in spread to, for example, Germany and China has yielded significant profits for us.The unrest in both China and Germany makes Trump’s victory particularly ill-timed for those markets in several ways.

China/Germany Flash Watch: How will China navigate the Trump victory?

<ul>
<li>Happy Monday from Copenhagen.</li>
<li>Our nowcasts of the US economy have proven useful in predicting the direction of incoming macro releases over the past couple of months, accurately capturing both the downtrend in July and the subsequent strength observed throughout September and October relative to expectations.</li>
<li>The US economy is performing much better than feared at the moment, resulting in stronger equities, higher rates, and a stronger USD.</li>
</ul>


Happy Monday from Copenhagen.
Our nowcasts of the US economy have proven useful in predicting the direction of incoming macro releases over the past couple of months, accurately capturing both the downtrend in July and the subsequent strength observed throughout September and October relative to expectations.
The US economy is performing much better than feared at the moment, resulting in stronger equities, higher rates, and a stronger USD.


The week at a Glance –   The cleanest shirt in the dirty laundry

<ul><li>Morning from Copenhagen, I spent my Sunday evening in the company of Interpol (the band, not the police, doh!), allowing myself a day off for once after the big announcements we made last week.</li><li>As a result, Steno Signals was released this Monday morning instead.</li><li>The recent repricing of EUR rates versus peers is extremely interesting, as the ECB is suddenly considered the only G3 central bank with a feasible path to 50bp cuts.</li></ul>

Morning from Copenhagen, I spent my Sunday evening in the company of Interpol (the band, not the police, doh!), allowing myself a day off for once after the big announcements we made last week.As a result, Steno Signals was released this Monday morning instead.The recent repricing of EUR rates versus peers is extremely interesting, as the ECB is suddenly considered the only G3 central bank with a feasible path to 50bp cuts.

Steno Signals #122 – Markets have abandoned the cutting narrative (outside of EZ)

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.</li><li>The debates about whether the US is heading for a recession are still touring the charts, as the labor market and other economic data soften back towards pre-pandemic levels.</li><li>However, while some might be uncomfortable watching the US economy slow more than anticipated, the lack of ringing alarm bells and Powell’s recent victory lap on inflation have greenlighted markets to price in a soft landing as a 95-99% probability event by now when looking across positioning data.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.The debates about whether the US is heading for a recession are still touring the charts, as the labor market and other economic data soften back towards pre-pandemic levels.However, while some might be uncomfortable watching the US economy slow more than anticipated, the lack of ringing alarm bells and Powell’s recent victory lap on inflation have greenlighted markets to price in a soft landing as a 95-99% probability event by now when looking across positioning data.

Positioning Watch – The Soft Landing Is Moving Towards a Recovery Trade

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the DAX index and the MDAX index in the run up to the June 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>I currently see no changes for the DAX index but there could be one change for the MDAX index.</li>
<li>M&amp;A candidate <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/morphosys-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21675:1" rel="noopener">MorphoSys AG (MOR GR)</a> could be deleted in the run up to the June 2024 review.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the DAX index and the MDAX index in the run up to the June 2024 index rebal event.
I currently see no changes for the DAX index but there could be one change for the MDAX index.
M&amp;A candidate MorphoSys AG (MOR GR) could be deleted in the run up to the June 2024 review.


Quiddity Leaderboard DAX/MDAX Mar 24: Traton Could Outperform the DAX Index

Germany

The German Stock Index is a total return index of 40 selected German blue chip stocks traded on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. The equities use free float shares in the index calculation. The DAX has a base value of 1,000 as of December 31, 1987. As of June 18, 1999 only XETRA equity prices are used to calculate all DAX indices.

German Stock Index (DAX INDEX)

China/Germany Flash Watch: How will China navigate the Trump victory?

Wow! What a day in the markets with the Trump trade roaring in the FX space, bond space, and equity space. Buying U.S.-based equities in spread...

Steno Research

The week at a Glance – The cleanest shirt in the dirty laundry

Happy Monday from Copenhagen. Our nowcasts of the US economy have proven useful in predicting the direction of incoming macro releases over the...

Steno Research

Steno Signals #122 – Markets have abandoned the cutting narrative (outside of EZ)

Morning from Copenhagen,I spent my Sunday evening in the company of Interpol (the band, not the police, doh!), allowing myself a day off for once...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch – The Soft Landing Is Moving Towards a Recovery Trade

Overall positioning and sentiment indicators are starting to diverge, though. Most indicators show continued support for risk assets in H2.

Steno Research

Quiddity Leaderboard DAX/MDAX Mar 24: Traton Could Outperform the DAX Index

Commercial vehicle manufacturer Traton is a strong candidate for MDAX addition. The expected index flow could act as a catalyst and help the stock...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA