ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Private Capital Markets

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<p>According to market sources, Bukalapak plans to raise around US$800m in an IPO in Jakarta on the IDX potentially by the end of July, making it the first Indonesian unicorn to list on the local bourse. This would potentially be followed by a SPAC merger in the US, which would value the company at US$4bn-5bn versus the last valuation range of US$2.5-3.0bn. </p>
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<p>Based on the available financial information and recent indications of growth prospects and the path to profitability, we see the suggested valuations as achievable and find Bukalapak an attractive prospect.  </p>
<p>Bukalapak started as a C2C business and one of Indonesia's earliest e-commerce pioneers,  focusing on consumers and sellers outside the major cities in Indonesia, with a focus on specialty goods at low prices. </p>
<p>In 2017, the company started Mitra Bukalapak, which focused on digitalizing the sourcing of products for offline warungs and small kiosks, increasing the range of products and reducing their sourcing costs plus improving margins.</p>
<p>Bukalapak now has more than 7m kiosks and 6m merchants on the platform, which provides a self-sustaining ecosystem, which does not demand high levels of promotional activity. </p>
<p>Bukalapak saw +70% growth in its GMV last year and +130% growth in transactions, with around 34m MAUs and it should achieve +50% growth this year on the current run-rate according to management.</p>
<p>We look at the implied valuations given limited financial information. The company is further along the road to profitability than its e-commerce peers, given its differentiated strategy.</p>
<p>The platform has already attracted some high profile investors including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microsoft-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15273:1" rel="noopener">Microsoft Corp (MSFT US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/standard-chartered-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:193:1" rel="noopener">Standard Chartered (STAN LN)</a>, both of which see opportunities to collaborate with Bukalapak.</p>
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<p>One obvious beneficiary of this IPO will be <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elang-mahkota-teknologi-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7752:1" rel="noopener">Emtek (EMTK IJ)</a>, which owns over 30% of Bukalapak, in that the investment should realise a higher valuation through its listing. There is also a potential that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab (0967655D SP)</a> may look to collaborate with Bukalapak in some way, given it has taken a 4% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elang-mahkota-teknologi-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7752:1" rel="noopener">Emtek (EMTK IJ)</a>.</p>
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According to market sources, Bukalapak plans to raise around US$800m in an IPO in Jakarta on the IDX potentially by the end of July, making it the first Indonesian unicorn to list on the local bourse. This would potentially be followed by a SPAC merger in the US, which would value the company at US$4bn-5bn versus the last valuation range of US$2.5-3.0bn. 

Based on the available financial information and recent indications of growth prospects and the path to profitability, we see the suggested valuations as achievable and find Bukalapak an attractive prospect.  
Bukalapak started as a C2C business and one of Indonesia's earliest e-commerce pioneers,  focusing on consumers and sellers outside the major cities in Indonesia, with a focus on specialty goods at low prices. 
In 2017, the company started Mitra Bukalapak, which focused on digitalizing the sourcing of products for offline warungs and small kiosks, increasing the range of products and reducing their sourcing costs plus improving margins.
Bukalapak now has more than 7m kiosks and 6m merchants on the platform, which provides a self-sustaining ecosystem, which does not demand high levels of promotional activity. 
Bukalapak saw +70% growth in its GMV last year and +130% growth in transactions, with around 34m MAUs and it should achieve +50% growth this year on the current run-rate according to management.
We look at the implied valuations given limited financial information. The company is further along the road to profitability than its e-commerce peers, given its differentiated strategy.
The platform has already attracted some high profile investors including Microsoft Corp (MSFT US) and Standard Chartered (STAN LN), both of which see opportunities to collaborate with Bukalapak.

One obvious beneficiary of this IPO will be Emtek (EMTK IJ), which owns over 30% of Bukalapak, in that the investment should realise a higher valuation through its listing. There is also a potential that Grab (0967655D SP) may look to collaborate with Bukalapak in some way, given it has taken a 4% stake in Emtek (EMTK IJ).

   

Bukalapak - Leading the Unicorn Charge - Buy Emtek

Research from SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia), SCCM Asia Research

SCCM Asia Research

Research from SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia)

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>Singapore</h2><h3>Condo and HDB rents continued to rise in May21; Volumes holding up well</h3><p>The rental market for both private apartments and HDB flats in May remained robust despite the tightened Covid-19 measures and border restrictions in place. Rents for condominium units rose by 0.3% MoM and are up 7.3% YoY. They are still down 11.4% from their peak in Jan13, according to SRX. HDB rents saw a slightly higher increase of 0.7% MoM and are up 7.9% YoY. However, they are still 9.2% off their highs in Aug13. With the May increases, condo rents extended their rise to five consecutive months, while HDB rents climbed for 11 straight months. Rental volume for condo apartments increased by 1.7% MoM to an estimated 4,603 units leased in May compared with 4,527 units in Apr. The number of units rented out last month are also 39.3% higher YoY, when Singapore was in its circuit breaker period. HDB rental volume in May saw a slight drop from Apr, down 0.9% MoM to an estimated 1,686 units from 1,702 units in Apr. HDB rental volume last month is 30.4% higher Yoy, though 8.5% lower than the five-year average volume for the month of May.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/212/219/original/image017.png?1623289645" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="212219"></figure><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/212/220/original/image018.png?1623289657" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="212220"></figure></section></section>

SingaporeCondo and HDB rents continued to rise in May21; Volumes holding up wellThe rental market for both private apartments and HDB flats in May remained robust despite the tightened Covid-19 measures and border restrictions in place. Rents for condominium units rose by 0.3% MoM and are up 7.3% YoY. They are still down 11.4% from their peak in Jan13, according to SRX. HDB rents saw a slightly higher increase of 0.7% MoM and are up 7.9% YoY. However, they are still 9.2% off their highs in Aug13. With the May increases, condo rents extended their rise to five consecutive months, while HDB rents climbed for 11 straight months. Rental volume for condo apartments increased by 1.7% MoM to an estimated 4,603 units leased in May compared with 4,527 units in Apr. The number of units rented out last month are also 39.3% higher YoY, when Singapore was in its circuit breaker period. HDB rental volume in May saw a slight drop from Apr, down 0.9% MoM to an estimated 1,686 units from 1,702 units in Apr. HDB rental volume last month is 30.4% higher Yoy, though 8.5% lower than the five-year average volume for the month of May.

ASEAN Builder's Scoop (10Jun21) - Condo/HDB Rents Continue to Rise in May21

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

<p>The MCO in Malaysia has been extended and many wonder what will happen to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kuala-lumpur-composite-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22913:1" rel="noopener">Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) (FBMKLCI INDEX)</a>after this. In this insight, we will discuss auto and TV sectors that benefit from supportive government policy and prolonged stay-home consumer behavior respectively, namely <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/umw-holdings-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1700:1" rel="noopener">UMW Holdings (UMWH MK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/drb-hicom-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19627:1" rel="noopener">DRB-Hicom Bhd (DRB MK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astro-malaysia-holdings-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1143:1" rel="noopener">Astro Malaysia Holdings (ASTRO MK)</a> .</p>

The MCO in Malaysia has been extended and many wonder what will happen to the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) (FBMKLCI INDEX)after this. In this insight, we will discuss auto and TV sectors that benefit from supportive government policy and prolonged stay-home consumer behavior respectively, namely UMW Holdings (UMWH MK) , DRB-Hicom Bhd (DRB MK) and Astro Malaysia Holdings (ASTRO MK) .

Global Gaming and Casinos Industry Specialist, Casino Business Review LLC

Howard J Klein

Global Gaming and Casinos Industry Specialist

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Genting has announced its Hong Kong based cruise business pandemic based financial woes have worsened, signaling our long held concerns about their over-reach in global casino gaming markets bringing collateral challenges.</li>
<li>Resorts World Las Vegas all important pre-opening budget could be limited below where history shows huge pre-opening costs needed to launch a major property.</li>
<li>Prospects for all Genting gaming properties still include reopening delays, underperformance in the US question corporate vision of global brand building.</li>
</ul>


Genting has announced its Hong Kong based cruise business pandemic based financial woes have worsened, signaling our long held concerns about their over-reach in global casino gaming markets bringing collateral challenges.
Resorts World Las Vegas all important pre-opening budget could be limited below where history shows huge pre-opening costs needed to launch a major property.
Prospects for all Genting gaming properties still include reopening delays, underperformance in the US question corporate vision of global brand building.


Genting: Continuing Financial Challenges May Impair Ramp of New US$4.3b Las Vegas Strip Resort

<p>For investors who are not based in Singapore, the mini lockdown in Singapore has started again due to the sudden increase in the number of community cases which previously was relatively under control. Before one thinks that it is a too-harsh of a policy, the rate of the increase of unlinked community cases in Singapore is high. This matters a lot because every Singapore residents need to check in every establishment using either an Identification card, Trace Together app, or token which has proved to be very effective as for months, most of the COVID-19 cases can be traced and therefore allows the government to take the necessary actions. </p>
<div class="content-highlight">
<p>This time is different. Alongside the third wave that has hit India and Thailand, Singapore, too, is hit. The Singapore government's response to this is very much like the first lock-down (Circuit Breaker), that they minimize public interactions so that the number of community cases does not increase and provide them with the time to perform contact tracing thoroughly. </p>
</div>
<p>In this report, we identify that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sheng-siong-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6824:1" rel="noopener">Sheng Siong (SSG SP)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-post-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:150:1" rel="noopener">Singapore Post (SPOST SP)</a>as winners while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/comfortdelgro-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:497:1" rel="noopener">Comfortdelgro Corp (CD SP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genting-singapore-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:439:1" rel="noopener">Genting Singapore (GENS SP)</a>as losers. </p>

For investors who are not based in Singapore, the mini lockdown in Singapore has started again due to the sudden increase in the number of community cases which previously was relatively under control. Before one thinks that it is a too-harsh of a policy, the rate of the increase of unlinked community cases in Singapore is high. This matters a lot because every Singapore residents need to check in every establishment using either an Identification card, Trace Together app, or token which has proved to be very effective as for months, most of the COVID-19 cases can be traced and therefore allows the government to take the necessary actions. 

This time is different. Alongside the third wave that has hit India and Thailand, Singapore, too, is hit. The Singapore government's response to this is very much like the first lock-down (Circuit Breaker), that they minimize public interactions so that the number of community cases does not increase and provide them with the time to perform contact tracing thoroughly. 

In this report, we identify that Sheng Siong (SSG SP) , Sea Ltd (SE US) and Singapore Post (SPOST SP)as winners while Comfortdelgro Corp (CD SP) and Genting Singapore (GENS SP)as losers. 

Singapore Mini Lockdown: Winners and Losers

Malaysia

Genting Berhad is an investment holding company.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides leisure and hospitality, gaming, and entertainment businesses. Genting also operates plantations, develops and manages property, provides tours and travel related services, manufactures and trades paper, explores oil and gas, and provides money lending services.

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Genting Bhd (GENT MK)

Bukalapak - Leading the Unicorn Charge - Buy Emtek

Bukalapak has outlined plans to list in Jakarta, giving access to its leading position in enabling warungs in Indonesia. The immediate beneficiary...

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Builder's Scoop (10Jun21) - Condo/HDB Rents Continue to Rise in May21

Condo/HDB rents continue to rise in May21; LHN on the lookout for more Co-living properties; WHA bets on Phuket reopening; ALI/AREIT property/share...

SCCM Asia Research

Malaysia MCO: Winners

auto and TV benefit from supportive government policy and prolonged stay-home consumer behavior respectively, namely UMW Holdings , DRB-Hicom Bhd...

Henry Soediarko

Genting: Continuing Financial Challenges May Impair Ramp of New US$4.3b Las Vegas Strip Resort

Genting Berhad's financial woes in its Hong Kong cruise business could squeeze its resources needed to open its $4.3b Las Vegas resort. It...

Howard J Klein

Singapore Mini Lockdown: Winners and Losers

In this report, we identify that Sheng Siong (SSG SP) , Sea Ltd (SE US) and Singapore Post (SPOST SP)as winners while Comfortdelgro Corp (CD SP)...

Henry Soediarko

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