IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Bottom-Up

Topsports International Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/topsports-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28153:1" rel="noopener">Topsports International (6110 HK)</a> is the sportswear division of Belle International. Topsports which IPOed on 10 October at HK$8.50 per share, reported its maiden interims last night. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>The interims continue to suggest that that Topsports’ fundamentals offer more positives than negatives. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/topsports-international-trading-debut-valuation-scenario-analysis" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Our DCF-based price target of HK$9.97</a> implies around a 5% upside to the current share price of HK$9.51. Consequently, we would look to add to our position on any share price weakness.</p></div>

Topsports International (6110 HK) is the sportswear division of Belle International. Topsports which IPOed on 10 October at HK$8.50 per share, reported its maiden interims last night. The interims continue to suggest that that Topsports’ fundamentals offer more positives than negatives. Our DCF-based price target of HK$9.97 implies around a 5% upside to the current share price of HK$9.51. Consequently, we would look to add to our position on any share price weakness.

Topsports International: Interims in a Holding Pattern

Equity Capital Markets

Topsports International Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/topsports-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28153:1" rel="noopener">Topsports International (6110 HK)</a> will commence trading on Thursday, 10 October. Topsports priced its IPO at HK$8.50 per share (towards the low-end of the range). The allotment results showed that both the international and Hong Kong offer Shares were "<em>moderately over-subscribed.</em>"</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/topsports-international-ipo-valuation-just-do-it" target="_blank" rel="noopener">our valuation note</a>, we said that we would be tempted to participate up to the mid-point of the offered price range of HK$8.30-10.10 per share. Our DCF analysis supports this view and our DCF-based scenario analysis suggests that the IPO price is undemanding. </p></div>

Topsports International (6110 HK) will commence trading on Thursday, 10 October. Topsports priced its IPO at HK$8.50 per share (towards the low-end of the range). The allotment results showed that both the international and Hong Kong offer Shares were "moderately over-subscribed."In our valuation note, we said that we would be tempted to participate up to the mid-point of the offered price range of HK$8.30-10.10 per share. Our DCF analysis supports this view and our DCF-based scenario analysis suggests that the IPO price is undemanding. 

Topsports International: Trading Debut, Valuation Scenario Analysis

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/topsports-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28153:1" rel="noopener">Topsports International (TOP HK)</a> is the sportswear division of Belle International. Topsports is the largest sportswear retailer in China as measured by retail sales value, with a 15.9% market share in 2018, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. Topsports has launched its IPO at an indicative price band of HK$8.30-10.10 per share to raise up to $1.2 billion. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Notwithstanding the weak 1QFY20 results (likely a one-off), we believe that Topsport’s fundamentals offer more positives than negatives. Overall, our valuation analysis suggests that we would be tempted to participate up to the mid-point of the offered price range.</p></div>

Topsports International (TOP HK) is the sportswear division of Belle International. Topsports is the largest sportswear retailer in China as measured by retail sales value, with a 15.9% market share in 2018, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. Topsports has launched its IPO at an indicative price band of HK$8.30-10.10 per share to raise up to $1.2 billion. Notwithstanding the weak 1QFY20 results (likely a one-off), we believe that Topsport’s fundamentals offer more positives than negatives. Overall, our valuation analysis suggests that we would be tempted to participate up to the mid-point of the offered price range.

Topsports International IPO: Valuation - Just Do It

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>The S&amp;P 500’s 5-month uptrend remains intact, and as long as it continues we remain bullish. With that said, we are near the top end of the uptrend channel and could fall 2.75%-3.25% before we get to uptrend support.<em> </em>Overall we believe the positives outweigh the concerns as highlighted in this week's report.  Also highlighted are actionable names in Retailing, Health Care, and small-cap Aero Defense<em>.</em></p>

The S&amp;P 500’s 5-month uptrend remains intact, and as long as it continues we remain bullish. With that said, we are near the top end of the uptrend channel and could fall 2.75%-3.25% before we get to uptrend support. Overall we believe the positives outweigh the concerns as highlighted in this week's report.  Also highlighted are actionable names in Retailing, Health Care, and small-cap Aero Defense.

S&P 500 Bullish but Extended; Downgrading Financials

United States

Genesco Inc. retails branded footwear, licensed and branded headwear, and wholesales branded footwear. The Company operates stores throughout the United States, Puerto Rico, and Canada.

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Genesco Inc (GCO US)

Topsports International: Interims in a Holding Pattern

Topsports International (6110 HK) is the sportswear division of Belle International. Topsports which IPOed on 10 October at HK$8.50 per share,...

Arun George

Topsports International: Trading Debut, Valuation Scenario Analysis

Topsports International (6110 HK) will commence trading on Thursday, 10 October. Topsports priced its IPO at HK$8.50 per share (towards the low-end...

Arun George

Topsports International IPO: Valuation - Just Do It

Topsports International (TOP HK) is the sportswear division of Belle International. Topsports is the largest sportswear retailer in China as...

Arun George

S&P 500 Bullish but Extended; Downgrading Financials

The S&P 500’s 5-month uptrend remains intact, and as long as it continues we remain bullish. With that said, we are near the top end of the...

Vermilion Research

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