Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Autonomous Driving represents the perfect fusion of our love affair with automobiles and our fascination with artificial intelligence. It has been part of our collective imagination for decades, first epitomized at the 1939 New York World Fair Futurama exhibit which posited an automated highway system (AHS), sponsored by General Motors. Research on AHS conducted at The Ohio State University led to the development of the world's first partially autonomous vehicle in 1962. Fast forward half a century and the goal of achieving autonomous driving is firmly fixed in the glare of our automobile headlights. Leading automakers, as well as technology companies, are promising autonomous or at least highly autonomous automobiles within the next three years. At the forefront, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11369" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11369:1">Alphabet Inc Cl C (GOOG US)</a> represented by its automotive spin-off Waymo, is in the process of launching the world's first driverless taxi service in Phoenix, Arizona. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/18811" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18811:1">General Motors Co (GM US)</a>, arguably the closest to Waymo in technology terms, has announced similar plans to launch an autonomous ride-sharing service in 2019.Not all is rosy in the autonomous driving garden, however. The sector has been plagued by high-profile defections of key staff leaving to either create their own startups or join competitors. These moves have led to equally high-profile and in some cases, embarrassing, law-suits. Other companies rush to hire talented artificial intelligence engineers has decimated the research ranks of leading universities.The safety and reliability of autonomous driving technology on our streets today has also been thrown into doubt in recent times. Just two days ago, on March 18'th, the first fatal accident involving an autonomous vehicle occurred in Phoenix Arizona, details <a href="https://electrek.co/2018/03/19/uber-self-driving-prototyp-fatal-crash-police/" target="_blank">here</a>. That vehicle was a Volvo XC90 and was part of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/430" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:430:1">Uber Technologies Inc</a> self-driving test fleet in the city. According to initial reports, the vehicle was operating in autonomous mode and had a safety driver on board. While we need to await the outcome of this particular investigation, previous incidents involving other autonomous vehicles highlight some astonishing shortcomings of the technology being used on our streets today. Indeed, there are now serious questions about the viability of so-called Level 3 autonomous driving in so far as they rely on emergency intervention by a driver highly likely to have been distracted by something more exciting than monitoring an automobile driving by itself. Autonomous driving is a subject far too broad to be covered in a single Insight. Consider this a primer where we begin by examining the origins of autonomous driving, tracing its roots back to 1960s which, by no coincidence, was also the starting point for much of the research on modern-day artificial intelligence. We look at the specific factors which combined to propel autonomous driving from the AI laboratories of prestigious universities to the drawing boards of multinationals around the globe. We review the framework for the different levels of autonomous driving and highlight the fact that most auto OEM's choose to largely ignore them. We then examine in detail the aforementioned issues with Level 3 autonomous driving and reveal that the technology used in the Volvo XC90, the vehicle involved in the recent fatal accident in Phoenix, specifically warns in its user manual that it should not be used for city driving and that it cannot detect pedestrians, cyclists etc. Recognizing the seminal role that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11369" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11369:1">Alphabet Inc Cl C (GOOG US)</a> has played in advancing the technology, we provide an in-depth review of their self-driving initiative from its inception as a secretive Google X project to its current day incarnation as Waymo. By way of contrast, we examine the autonomous driving ambitions of one of the world's leading auto OEMs, General Motors, and provide a detailed review of their progress to date. Finally, we address the question on everybody's mind when it comes to autonomous driving - are we there yet?

Autonomous Driving represents the perfect fusion of our love affair with automobiles and our fascination with artificial intelligence. It has been part of our collective imagination for decades, first epitomized at the 1939 New York World Fair Futurama exhibit which posited an automated highway system (AHS), sponsored by General Motors. Research on AHS conducted at The Ohio State University led to the development of the world's first partially autonomous vehicle in 1962. Fast forward half a century and the goal of achieving autonomous driving is firmly fixed in the glare of our automobile headlights. Leading automakers, as well as technology companies, are promising autonomous or at least highly autonomous automobiles within the next three years. At the forefront, Alphabet Inc Cl C (GOOG US) represented by its automotive spin-off Waymo, is in the process of launching the world's first driverless taxi service in Phoenix, Arizona. General Motors Co (GM US), arguably the closest to Waymo in technology terms, has announced similar plans to launch an autonomous ride-sharing service in 2019.Not all is rosy in the autonomous driving garden, however. The sector has been plagued by high-profile defections of key staff leaving to either create their own startups or join competitors. These moves have led to equally high-profile and in some cases, embarrassing, law-suits. Other companies rush to hire talented artificial intelligence engineers has decimated the research ranks of leading universities.The safety and reliability of autonomous driving technology on our streets today has also been thrown into doubt in recent times. Just two days ago, on March 18'th, the first fatal accident involving an autonomous vehicle occurred in Phoenix Arizona, details here. That vehicle was a Volvo XC90 and was part of Uber Technologies Inc self-driving test fleet in the city. According to initial reports, the vehicle was operating in autonomous mode and had a safety driver on board. While we need to await the outcome of this particular investigation, previous incidents involving other autonomous vehicles highlight some astonishing shortcomings of the technology being used on our streets today. Indeed, there are now serious questions about the viability of so-called Level 3 autonomous driving in so far as they rely on emergency intervention by a driver highly likely to have been distracted by something more exciting than monitoring an automobile driving by itself. Autonomous driving is a subject far too broad to be covered in a single Insight. Consider this a primer where we begin by examining the origins of autonomous driving, tracing its roots back to 1960s which, by no coincidence, was also the starting point for much of the research on modern-day artificial intelligence. We look at the specific factors which combined to propel autonomous driving from the AI laboratories of prestigious universities to the drawing boards of multinationals around the globe. We review the framework for the different levels of autonomous driving and highlight the fact that most auto OEM's choose to largely ignore them. We then examine in detail the aforementioned issues with Level 3 autonomous driving and reveal that the technology used in the Volvo XC90, the vehicle involved in the recent fatal accident in Phoenix, specifically warns in its user manual that it should not be used for city driving and that it cannot detect pedestrians, cyclists etc. Recognizing the seminal role that Alphabet Inc Cl C (GOOG US) has played in advancing the technology, we provide an in-depth review of their self-driving initiative from its inception as a secretive Google X project to its current day incarnation as Waymo. By way of contrast, we examine the autonomous driving ambitions of one of the world's leading auto OEMs, General Motors, and provide a detailed review of their progress to date. Finally, we address the question on everybody's mind when it comes to autonomous driving - are we there yet?

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank</a> raised around US$4.9bn via selling some of its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arm-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21816:1" rel="noopener">ARM Holdings (ARM US)</a>’ US IPO. Its remaining 90% stake will be released from its IPO linked lockup soon.</li>
<li>ARM develops and licenses high-performance, low-cost, and energy-efficient CPU products and related technology, which is used by semiconductor companies and OEMs to develop their own products.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Softbank raised around US$4.9bn via selling some of its stake in ARM Holdings (ARM US)’ US IPO. Its remaining 90% stake will be released from its IPO linked lockup soon.
ARM develops and licenses high-performance, low-cost, and energy-efficient CPU products and related technology, which is used by semiconductor companies and OEMs to develop their own products.
In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.


ARM Holdings IPO Lock-Up Expiry - A US$127bn Lockup Release Might Be Too Tempting to Pass On

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>On 31 January, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/walmart-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11134:1" rel="noopener">Walmart (WMT US)</a> announced a 3:1 stock split. For cognoscenti, that meant a Dow Jones Industrial Avg might be in the offing.</li>
<li>The last change to the index was in Aug-2020, spurred by the 4:1 split for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL US)</a>. This time, the likely deletion candidate was <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/walgreens-boots-alliance-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1118:1" rel="noopener">Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA US)</a>. </li>
<li>Indeed, last week, the Index Keepers announced <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)</a> would replace Walgreens Boots Alliance on 26 Feb (i.e. WBA would be booted on the close of 23 Feb).</li>
</ul>


On 31 January, Walmart (WMT US) announced a 3:1 stock split. For cognoscenti, that meant a Dow Jones Industrial Avg might be in the offing.
The last change to the index was in Aug-2020, spurred by the 4:1 split for Apple (AAPL US). This time, the likely deletion candidate was Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA US). 
Indeed, last week, the Index Keepers announced Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US) would replace Walgreens Boots Alliance on 26 Feb (i.e. WBA would be booted on the close of 23 Feb).


Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA US) - How Do Dow Jones Deletes Do Historically?

We aggregate key quotes from earnings, The Transcript

The Transcript

We aggregate key quotes from earnings

Aggregate Key Quotes from Earnings

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Companies are expecting the Federal Reserve to reduce rates to ease the burden on consumers and boost confidence in markets.</li><li>Inflation is still a concern for many companies, particularly at the high end, but the Fed cannot act until there is substantial data showing a decrease in inflation.</li><li>The lower income consumers are trading down and experiencing financial difficulties, with subprime delinquencies reaching levels similar to 2009, which is concerning for the market. </li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Companies are expecting the Federal Reserve to reduce rates to ease the burden on consumers and boost confidence in markets.Inflation is still a concern for many companies, particularly at the high end, but the Fed cannot act until there is substantial data showing a decrease in inflation.The lower income consumers are trading down and experiencing financial difficulties, with subprime delinquencies reaching levels similar to 2009, which is concerning for the market. This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Ethan Aw

APAC IPOs & Placements

Equity Capital Markets

Octillion Energy Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/octillion-energy-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40394:1" rel="noopener">Octillion Energy Holdings (OE HK)</a> is looking to raise US$400m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>Octillion’s main revenue driver has been its EV battery systems with battery cells over the track record period, with a healthy balance sheet to support its cash burn. </li>
<li>However, its revenue growth fell off a cliff in 1H23 due to its heavy reliance on a single customer, which doesn’t appear sustainable, in our view.</li>
</ul>



Octillion Energy Holdings (OE HK) is looking to raise US$400m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
Octillion’s main revenue driver has been its EV battery systems with battery cells over the track record period, with a healthy balance sheet to support its cash burn. 
However, its revenue growth fell off a cliff in 1H23 due to its heavy reliance on a single customer, which doesn’t appear sustainable, in our view.


Octillion Energy Holdings Pre-IPO - Over-Reliance on Top Customer and Lack of Competitive Edge

United States

General Motors Co. manufactures and markets new cars and trucks. The Company offers features for special needs drivers, OnStar vehicle protection, service, parts, accessories, maintenance, XM satellite radio, features for commercial owners, and more. General Motors offers its vehicles and services worldwide.

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General Motors (GM US)

Autonomous Driving- Are We There Yet?

I find it fascinating to read this again, almost six years to the day since I published it. I intend to publish an update on this topic in the...

William Keating

ARM Holdings IPO Lock-Up Expiry - A US$127bn Lockup Release Might Be Too Tempting to Pass On

Softbank raised around US$4.9bn via selling some of its stake in ARM Holdings (ARM US)’ US IPO. Its remaining 90% stake will be released from its...

Sumeet Singh

Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA US) - How Do Dow Jones Deletes Do Historically?

Walgreens was given the boot from the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Friday at the close. Historically, DELETEs outperform their ADDs and DJIA in...

Travis Lundy

Episode 112: Subprime Signals

Companies are counting on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in order to boost consumer confidence and market trends, while inflation...

The Transcript

Octillion Energy Holdings Pre-IPO - Over-Reliance on Top Customer and Lack of Competitive Edge

Octillion Energy Holdings (OE HK) is looking to raise US$400m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. Its revenue growth fell off a cliff in 1H23 due to its...

Ethan Aw

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