Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Capital Markets

General Electric  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul><li>General Electric delivered a decent result with a surprise positive free cash flow of $388 million contrary to market expectations.</li><li>The management has given a positive free cash flow guidance for the year as the company hopes to witness a recovery in its aviation business.</li><li>We expect the aviation business of the company to recover at a steady pace and maintain our ‘Hold’ rating on the stock.</li></ul>

General Electric delivered a decent result with a surprise positive free cash flow of $388 million contrary to market expectations.The management has given a positive free cash flow guidance for the year as the company hopes to witness a recovery in its aviation business.We expect the aviation business of the company to recover at a steady pace and maintain our ‘Hold’ rating on the stock.

General Electric Company - Investment Thesis

Founder of Antler Capital

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

BOC Aviation | BOCAVI <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boc-aviation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22689:1" rel="noopener">(2588 HK)</a> 
As a follow-up on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/david-blennerhassett" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:840" rel="noopener">David Blennerhassett</a>'s Smartkarma Original <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/asia-pac-airports-ups-but-mostly-downs" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:51855" rel="noopener">Asia-Pac Airports: Ups, But Mostly Downs</a>, we take a look at BOCAVI, which, in our view, is a compelling alternative to APAC airport operators and airlines as a post-Covid trade.
BOCAVI is a highly geared play on the resumption of air travel. The stock has gone through periods of significant out/underperformance against the APAC airports and airlines and may continue to give investors high beta in either direction. The geographical exposure is broad, but there is a heavy skew towards short-haul flights, which will see the earliest acceleration in passenger traffic.
Management's countercyclical capex expansion increasingly looks like a shrewd bet. At its core, BOCAVI is in the capital management business. Strong liquidity and BOC's explicit backing have allowed the lessor to grow its purchase-and-leaseback portfolio through the depths of the pandemic. While airlines are still hemorrhaging cash, over 99% of BOCAVI's aircraft remain cash-generating.  
We expect the firm's undiscounted committed revenues to top USD20bn in 2021. By year-end, the value of the portfolio will have doubled since 2014. We estimate the present value of this cashflow stream to be HKD72.80/share. We are essentially getting free growth optionality. 
We are buyers at book value. The stock is trading at 8x P/E and 1.1x P/B on a 12M forward basis. BOCAVI is reasonably liquid, with a market cap of USD6bn and average daily turnover of USD3.5mn. Besides the obvious risk of protracted lockdowns globally, a well-functioning USD bond market and BOC's funding support are critical to our investment case.
Attachment: BOCAVI Financial Summary

BOC Aviation | BOCAVI (2588 HK) 
As a follow-up on David Blennerhassett's Smartkarma Original Asia-Pac Airports: Ups, But Mostly Downs, we take a look at BOCAVI, which, in our view, is a compelling alternative to APAC airport operators and airlines as a post-Covid trade.
BOCAVI is a highly geared play on the resumption of air travel. The stock has gone through periods of significant out/underperformance against the APAC airports and airlines and may continue to give investors high beta in either direction. The geographical exposure is broad, but there is a heavy skew towards short-haul flights, which will see the earliest acceleration in passenger traffic.
Management's countercyclical capex expansion increasingly looks like a shrewd bet. At its core, BOCAVI is in the capital management business. Strong liquidity and BOC's explicit backing have allowed the lessor to grow its purchase-and-leaseback portfolio through the depths of the pandemic. While airlines are still hemorrhaging cash, over 99% of BOCAVI's aircraft remain cash-generating.  
We expect the firm's undiscounted committed revenues to top USD20bn in 2021. By year-end, the value of the portfolio will have doubled since 2014. We estimate the present value of this cashflow stream to be HKD72.80/share. We are essentially getting free growth optionality. 
We are buyers at book value. The stock is trading at 8x P/E and 1.1x P/B on a 12M forward basis. BOCAVI is reasonably liquid, with a market cap of USD6bn and average daily turnover of USD3.5mn. Besides the obvious risk of protracted lockdowns globally, a well-functioning USD bond market and BOC's funding support are critical to our investment case.
Attachment: BOCAVI Financial Summary

BOC Aviation (2588 HK): The Stars Don't Look Bigger, but They Do Look Brighter

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tuya-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32158:1" rel="noopener">Tuya Inc (1869782D US)</a> provides a backend service for IoT (internet of things) device makers. Tuya offers its customers a Platform-as-a-Service (PaaS) for IoT devices that handles the connectivity, device software and application development. In 2020, Tuya was the largest IoT PaaS business globally as measured by the volume of smart devices powered, according to CIC.Tuya is backed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a> (10.8% stake) and NEA (23.9% stake). Jeff Immelt, the former chairman and CEO of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/general-electric-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:782:1" rel="noopener">General Electric Co (GE US)</a>, is a venture partner at NEA and has been appointed as a director at Tuya. Tuya has filed for an NYSE IPO to raise proceeds of $1 billion, according to press reports. Despite the growing user demand for smart IoT enabled devices driven by increased affordability and improved user experiences, most products are not connected yet. Devices related to smart home and smart business reached 762.8 million in 2019 and is expected to grow to 2.5 billion by 2024, representing a CAGR of 26.7%, according to CIC. This is a huge opportunity for companies that can offer their customers a cost-effective solution to bring their products online. <div class="content-highlight">PaaS is a key enabler to accelerate the launch of smart IoT enabled devices by making the software development cycles and feature update process time and cost-efficient. PaaS is a platform where third-party providers deliver software, infrastructure and hardware tools needed for software developers to build and manage software efficiently. Tuya’s PaaS solutions are well-positioned to benefit from the rising need for third-party IoT PaaS providers who can provide the required tools. Overall, we believe that Tuya’s fundamentals are attractive.</div>

Tuya Inc (1869782D US) provides a backend service for IoT (internet of things) device makers. Tuya offers its customers a Platform-as-a-Service (PaaS) for IoT devices that handles the connectivity, device software and application development. In 2020, Tuya was the largest IoT PaaS business globally as measured by the volume of smart devices powered, according to CIC.Tuya is backed by Tencent Holdings (700 HK) (10.8% stake) and NEA (23.9% stake). Jeff Immelt, the former chairman and CEO of General Electric Co (GE US), is a venture partner at NEA and has been appointed as a director at Tuya. Tuya has filed for an NYSE IPO to raise proceeds of $1 billion, according to press reports. Despite the growing user demand for smart IoT enabled devices driven by increased affordability and improved user experiences, most products are not connected yet. Devices related to smart home and smart business reached 762.8 million in 2019 and is expected to grow to 2.5 billion by 2024, representing a CAGR of 26.7%, according to CIC. This is a huge opportunity for companies that can offer their customers a cost-effective solution to bring their products online. PaaS is a key enabler to accelerate the launch of smart IoT enabled devices by making the software development cycles and feature update process time and cost-efficient. PaaS is a platform where third-party providers deliver software, infrastructure and hardware tools needed for software developers to build and manage software efficiently. Tuya’s PaaS solutions are well-positioned to benefit from the rising need for third-party IoT PaaS providers who can provide the required tools. Overall, we believe that Tuya’s fundamentals are attractive.

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
Increasing Systemic Risks:Events are moving quickly and the fluidity of this pandemic has created a destructive amount of market volatility, which likely is the new normal given issues Quant Funds, illiquidity, the lack of US preparation and global leadership, and the corporate bond market are all becoming systemic risks.</li>
<li> Global Recession Already Underway: A global recession is already well underway, which should worsen given how much this pandemic is having on consumer confidence.  </li>
<li>Financial Stability Called Into Question:The global market rout is calling financial stability into question. This crisis of confidence and increased likelihood of waterfall of losses that will make for a VERY toxic cocktail – especially considering that many names are still not profitable on an operating basis.   </li>
</ul>



Increasing Systemic Risks:Events are moving quickly and the fluidity of this pandemic has created a destructive amount of market volatility, which likely is the new normal given issues Quant Funds, illiquidity, the lack of US preparation and global leadership, and the corporate bond market are all becoming systemic risks.
 Global Recession Already Underway: A global recession is already well underway, which should worsen given how much this pandemic is having on consumer confidence.  
Financial Stability Called Into Question:The global market rout is calling financial stability into question. This crisis of confidence and increased likelihood of waterfall of losses that will make for a VERY toxic cocktail – especially considering that many names are still not profitable on an operating basis.   


<ul>
<li>Massive central bank liquidity and fiscal stimulus came rushing in to stabilize the global economy in 2019, and should continue in 2020. However, asset bubbles continue to grow. </li>
<li>Risk concentrations are increasing. </li>
</ul>


Massive central bank liquidity and fiscal stimulus came rushing in to stabilize the global economy in 2019, and should continue in 2020. However, asset bubbles continue to grow. 
Risk concentrations are increasing. 


United States

General Electric Company is a globally diversified technology and financial services company. The Company's products and services include aircraft engines, power generation, water processing, and household appliances to medical imaging, business and consumer financing, and industrial products.

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General Electric (GE US)

General Electric Company - Investment Thesis

General Electric delivered a decent result with a surprise positive free cash flow of $388 million contrary to market expectations. The management...

Baptista Research

BOC Aviation (2588 HK): The Stars Don't Look Bigger, but They Do Look Brighter

As downstream players continue to hemorrhage cash, over 99% of BOCAVI’s aircraft are still cash-generating. Valuation is undemanding for a high...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Tuya IPO Initiation: Connected Future

Tencent-backed Tuya has filed for an NYSE IPO to raise proceeds of $1 billion, according to press reports. Overall, we believe that Tuya’s...

Arun George

Toxic Cocktail

Increasing Systemic Risks:Events are moving quickly and the fluidity of this pandemic has created a destructive amount of market volatility,...

Thomas J. Monaco

Global Stall Speed Growth

Massive central bank liquidity and fiscal stimulus came rushing in to stabilize the global economy in 2019, and should continue in 2020. However,...

Thomas J. Monaco

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Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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