Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>A broad USD rally is finally underway, and the risk of an offshore dollar shortage remains acute for EM - the asset allocation implications have been covered in recent notes.</li>
<li>The deep junk issue last week from WeWork with its ‘community adjusted EBITDA’ metric as well as the lending scandal in Australia engulfing AMP are classic late credit cycle warning signals.</li>
<li>Real housing prices in Scandinavia and Australia/Canada as well as HK are dangerously above long-term trend and vulnerable to a global…</li>
</ul>


A broad USD rally is finally underway, and the risk of an offshore dollar shortage remains acute for EM - the asset allocation implications have been covered in recent notes.
The deep junk issue last week from WeWork with its ‘community adjusted EBITDA’ metric as well as the lending scandal in Australia engulfing AMP are classic late credit cycle warning signals.
Real housing prices in Scandinavia and Australia/Canada as well as HK are dangerously above long-term trend and vulnerable to a global…


Beware Deep Junk and Liar Loans, as Netflix Reinvents Media Sector…

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Large-cap aerospace and defense stocks remain leadership, emerging from recent market volatility to achieve new relative strength highs. Aero/defense-related names continue to be favorites of ours within the Manufacturing Sector.  In today’s report we highlight the following names: Lockheed Martin (LMT), General Dynamics (GD), Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII), TransDigm (TDG), Textron (TXT), Teledyne Technologies (TDY), Embraer S.A. ADR (ERJ), and L3 Technologies (LLL).

Large-cap aerospace and defense stocks remain leadership, emerging from recent market volatility to achieve new relative strength highs. Aero/defense-related names continue to be favorites of ours within the Manufacturing Sector.  In today’s report we highlight the following names: Lockheed Martin (LMT), General Dynamics (GD), Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII), TransDigm (TDG), Textron (TXT), Teledyne Technologies (TDY), Embraer S.A. ADR (ERJ), and L3 Technologies (LLL).

Analyst

Alasdair Moody

Exposing Creative Accounting

Bucephalus Research Partnership

Bucephalus Research Partnership Limited. Exposing Creative Accounting.

At the Bucephalus Research Partnership (BRP) we analyse financial statements using our accountant's practical experience and our own quantitative algorithms for corporate governance, accounting risk and peer performance.

Our thematic research refines our unique algorithms while our single stock research focuses on examples where we discover a significant gap between published accounts and business reality.

​Bucephalus Research Partnership:
- Is an independent fee-based research service
- Does not take proprietary positions, long or short
- Does not solicit business or fees from the corporates we review

Forensic Accounting

Bombardier is our North American poster child for creative accounting. It scores very badly on each of our Governance, Accounting risk and Peer performance metrics and has one of the highest (worst) scores, 226, in our universe. Bombardier needs to spend to survive but negative cashflow means it is borrowing to fund its finance costs. Ever more desperate deals will not save the company. Worst case scenario, the debt holders take a haircut, best case, equity holders only lose 65%.The questions…

Bombardier is our North American poster child for creative accounting. It scores very badly on each of our Governance, Accounting risk and Peer performance metrics and has one of the highest (worst) scores, 226, in our universe. Bombardier needs to spend to survive but negative cashflow means it is borrowing to fund its finance costs. Ever more desperate deals will not save the company. Worst case scenario, the debt holders take a haircut, best case, equity holders only lose 65%.The questions…

Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

Value-focused bottom-up Asian equity research

NVB Asia Pte Ltd

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15717" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15717:1">Ips Securex Holdings Ltd (IPSS SP)</a> is an integrated security solutions provider</li><li>Company founded in 2000 and listed on SGX in 2014 as a spin-off from IPS Group Pte. Ltd.</li><li>IPS' HQ in Singapore but active in 17 Asian countries</li><li>Philippines ISIS insurgency in Mindanao shows that Asian governments better be prepared for higher chance of terrorist activity in their respective countries</li><li>After dismal 2016 IPS Securex likely to report weak 2017 (year-end 30/6/17)</li><li>2018 should see rebound in Singapore market and potential new contract wins in Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand</li><li>Share Price down 68% from peak in 2015; which makes this an interesting micro-cap to put on your watchlist</li></ul>

Ips Securex Holdings Ltd (IPSS SP) is an integrated security solutions providerCompany founded in 2000 and listed on SGX in 2014 as a spin-off from IPS Group Pte. Ltd.IPS' HQ in Singapore but active in 17 Asian countriesPhilippines ISIS insurgency in Mindanao shows that Asian governments better be prepared for higher chance of terrorist activity in their respective countriesAfter dismal 2016 IPS Securex likely to report weak 2017 (year-end 30/6/17)2018 should see rebound in Singapore market and potential new contract wins in Indonesia, Malaysia and ThailandShare Price down 68% from peak in 2015; which makes this an interesting micro-cap to put on your watchlist

Discover Singapore: IPS Securex (IPSS SP); Defending Asian Governments from Terrorist Threats

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Ankush Kathuria CFA, FRM

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector

Maritime Sector, Equity & Credit Research

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

With no ties to other players in the shipping, finance or banking world, we provide a uniquely impartial view of the markets and companies we cover. Our parent organization, Drewry is a leading independent provider of research services to the maritime and shipping industry, employing over 100 professionals across an international network of offices in London, Delhi, Singapore and Shanghai. Combining our market-leading resources with seasoned sector expertise DFRS offers a highly differentiated and comprehensive range of investment and financial research services to lenders and prospective investors in publicly listed maritime and shipping companies. The full service of reports, supporting resources and sector orientated webinars provides our clients with the most complete picture of the organisations under coverage as is possible. We have been charting and analysing the world’s maritime markets for more than 40 years. This unrivalled intelligence and understanding provides the foundation of our research service. Our analysts have access to one of the most up-to-date, comprehensive and reliable sources of market insight and research data available today. We look at globally listed companies within the following sectors: Port Operators, Container Shipping, Container Manufacturing & Leasing, LNG Shipping, Dry Bulk Shipping and Tanker Shipping. Combine in-depth sector expertise with financial analysis focusing on over 50 stocks globally.

Container Shipping - Asia Import Drive Will Boost Asia-Europe-Asia Box Profits for CarriersBackground - Space shortage has disrupted the Europe-Asia container trade in February and March and European exporters face highly unusual space crunch. This is highly unusual for a ‘back-haul’ route where ship utilization rarely reaches 70%. Carriers charged an ‘emergency minimum rate’ to accept bookings and some of them have put a stop to bookings until mid-April. Boxes already on the quay are getting…

Container Shipping - Asia Import Drive Will Boost Asia-Europe-Asia Box Profits for CarriersBackground - Space shortage has disrupted the Europe-Asia container trade in February and March and European exporters face highly unusual space crunch. This is highly unusual for a ‘back-haul’ route where ship utilization rarely reaches 70%. Carriers charged an ‘emergency minimum rate’ to accept bookings and some of them have put a stop to bookings until mid-April. Boxes already on the quay are getting…

Container Shipping - Asia Import Drive Will Boost Asia-Europe-Asia Box Profits for Carriers

United States

General Dynamics Corporation is a diversified defense company. The Company offers a broad portfolio of products and services in business aviation; combat vehicles, weapons systems and munitions; shipbuilding design and construction; and information systems, technologies and services.

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General Dynamics (GD US)

Beware Deep Junk and Liar Loans, as Netflix Reinvents Media Sector…

A broad USD rally is finally underway, and the risk of an offshore dollar shortage remains acute for EM - the asset allocation implications have...

Sean Maher

U. S. Aerospace & Defense Lifting Off

Large-cap aerospace and defense stocks remain leadership, emerging from recent market volatility to achieve new relative strength highs....

Vermilion Research

Bombardier: Flying on Fumes

Bombardier is our North American poster child for creative accounting. It scores very badly on each of our Governance, Accounting risk and Peer...

Bucephalus Research Partnership

Discover Singapore: IPS Securex (IPSS SP); Defending Asian Governments from Terrorist Threats

Ips Securex Holdings Ltd (IPSS SP) is an integrated security solutions provider Company founded in 2000 and listed on SGX in 2014 as a spin-off...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Container Shipping - Asia Import Drive Will Boost Asia-Europe-Asia Box Profits for Carriers

Container Shipping - Asia Import Drive Will Boost Asia-Europe-Asia Box Profits for CarriersBackground - Space shortage has disrupted the...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

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