Global Cross-Asset Energy Analyst, VAC Investments

Aaditya Chintalapati, CFA

Global Cross-Asset Energy Analyst

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>Oil Price</h2><p>We saw another strong week for WTI and Brent Crude prices, with both up c.2% to USD 56.74/bbl and USD 63.52/bbl, respectively. This is the highest oil price seen since mid-2015 and is driven by market anticipation of an extension to OPEC's production cut beyond March 2018. Further, heightened geopolitical risks in oil-producing countries in the Middle East (Saudi Arabia &amp; Lebanon) and Latin America also contributed to rising oil prices. This was however modestly moderated by growth in…</p>

Oil PriceWe saw another strong week for WTI and Brent Crude prices, with both up c.2% to USD 56.74/bbl and USD 63.52/bbl, respectively. This is the highest oil price seen since mid-2015 and is driven by market anticipation of an extension to OPEC's production cut beyond March 2018. Further, heightened geopolitical risks in oil-producing countries in the Middle East (Saudi Arabia &amp; Lebanon) and Latin America also contributed to rising oil prices. This was however modestly moderated by growth in…

Energy Expert

Thierry Bros, PhD

Thierrybros.com

<p>As mentioned on 31 January 2017 in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/energy-who-could-benefit-from-brexit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:8488">Energy: Who Could Benefit from Brexit?</a>, "Independent trading houses operating in Europe (like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/764" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:764:1">Glencore Plc (GLEN LN)</a>, Trafigura or Vitol) would be able to take advantage of the increased volatility and spread" and "some LNG producers close to Europe and LNG portfolio players would be able to arbitrage the EU vs the UK". Since this publication, Trafigura is seeking to reopen an LNG import terminal in the UK. </p><p>Enjoy a short updated <a href="https://www.dukascopy.com/tv/en#206316" target="_blank">webcast</a>, where I reiterate the 3…</p>

As mentioned on 31 January 2017 in Energy: Who Could Benefit from Brexit?, "Independent trading houses operating in Europe (like Glencore Plc (GLEN LN), Trafigura or Vitol) would be able to take advantage of the increased volatility and spread" and "some LNG producers close to Europe and LNG portfolio players would be able to arbitrage the EU vs the UK". Since this publication, Trafigura is seeking to reopen an LNG import terminal in the UK. Enjoy a short updated webcast, where I reiterate the 3…

Independent Trading Houses to Benefit from Brexit

<p><strong>Brexit negotiations are likely to start soon. Everyone is looking at the consequences on forex and on the UK financial sector. But who could benefit from decorrelation of energy prices between the UK and the EU?</strong></p><p><em>Following the policy paper " <a href="https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/brexits-impact-gas-markets-brext-security-supply-uk-ireland/" target="_blank">Brexit's impact on gas markets: Brexit and security of supply for the UK and Ireland</a>" just published by Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, this insight looks at the Brexit's impact on energy stocks.</em></p><p>As the outcome of Brexit is still unknown, we can only draft…</p>

Brexit negotiations are likely to start soon. Everyone is looking at the consequences on forex and on the UK financial sector. But who could benefit from decorrelation of energy prices between the UK and the EU?Following the policy paper " Brexit's impact on gas markets: Brexit and security of supply for the UK and Ireland" just published by Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, this insight looks at the Brexit's impact on energy stocks.As the outcome of Brexit is still unknown, we can only draft…

CEO, CIO, ClearMacro

Mike Simcock

CEO, CIO

Strategic & Tactical Asset Allocation Global Macro

ClearMacro

CIO, & CEO ClearMacro Ltd
An institutional investor with over 25 years experience, laterly having spent 10 years at GIC Singapore SWF. Managng Director, managing Global Macro, FIxed Income (Europe) and Global Credit businesses.
Passionate about utilising technology to enhance portfolio idea generation across global, multi-asset classes and optimisation of the investment process.

Macroeconomics

<header class="entry-header"><h2>Commodity fundamentals – actionable insight from CRB’s Fundamental Database</h2></header><p>ClearMacro is delighted to announce a collaboration with Barcharts/CRB to derive signals from fundamental commodity supply, production and consumption data.</p><p>We care about generating actionable market insight from information categories that a sophisticated investor cares about.  Commodity markets require tailored information to help investors generate outlook views across energy, metals, and agricultural markets.</p><p>We focus…</p>

Commodity fundamentals – actionable insight from CRB’s Fundamental DatabaseClearMacro is delighted to announce a collaboration with Barcharts/CRB to derive signals from fundamental commodity supply, production and consumption data.We care about generating actionable market insight from information categories that a sophisticated investor cares about.  Commodity markets require tailored information to help investors generate outlook views across energy, metals, and agricultural markets.We focus…

Commodities - Is There Any Value Within the Complex?

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

<p><em>S interest rates have fallen significantly this year (-36bp) reducing the USD yield advantage.  This has been matched by the GBP and CAD, but AUD and NZD rates have been much more stable than previous episodes of global risk aversion. The Fed is sticking to its outlook for gradual policy tightening, but weak growth is expected to be reported in Q4, activity indicators are weak heading into 2016, medium and longer term inflation expectations are down sharply, and the only plank left supporting rate hike forecasts is the solid labor market.  However, recent unemployment claims have drifted up, and a considerable pause in US rates appears likely.  The US economy has been dragged back to the pack to some extent by the deep fall in oil prices.  While the US energy sector is not all that large, it is much more cyclical than OPEC countries, and activity in this sector has been a factor slowing the US economy.   We may be moving into a phase where confidence in the US economy is waning.  This may tend to weaken the USD in 2016.  Global risk aversion and weaker commodity prices may also weaken commodity and emerging market currencies, but if perceptions on US monetary policy change enough, even these currencies may recover at some point.</em></p>

S interest rates have fallen significantly this year (-36bp) reducing the USD yield advantage.  This has been matched by the GBP and CAD, but AUD and NZD rates have been much more stable than previous episodes of global risk aversion. The Fed is sticking to its outlook for gradual policy tightening, but weak growth is expected to be reported in Q4, activity indicators are weak heading into 2016, medium and longer term inflation expectations are down sharply, and the only plank left supporting rate hike forecasts is the solid labor market.  However, recent unemployment claims have drifted up, and a considerable pause in US rates appears likely.  The US economy has been dragged back to the pack to some extent by the deep fall in oil prices.  While the US energy sector is not all that large, it is much more cyclical than OPEC countries, and activity in this sector has been a factor slowing the US economy.   We may be moving into a phase where confidence in the US economy is waning.  This may tend to weaken the USD in 2016.  Global risk aversion and weaker commodity prices may also weaken commodity and emerging market currencies, but if perceptions on US monetary policy change enough, even these currencies may recover at some point.

United Kingdom

Genel Energy PLC  specializes in investing in oil and natural gas assets. The Company has stakes in producing oil fields, a gas condensate discovery and exploration acreage, all in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq.

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Genel Energy (GENL LN)

Global E&Ps: Energy Weekly Vol. 1

Oil PriceWe saw another strong week for WTI and Brent Crude prices, with both up c.2% to USD 56.74/bbl and USD 63.52/bbl, respectively. This is the...

Aaditya Chintalapati, CFA

Independent Trading Houses to Benefit from Brexit

As mentioned on 31 January 2017 in Energy: Who Could Benefit from Brexit?, "Independent trading houses operating in Europe (like Glencore Plc (GLEN...

Thierry Bros, PhD

Energy: Who Could Benefit from Brexit?

Brexit negotiations are likely to start soon. Everyone is looking at the consequences on forex and on the UK financial sector. But who could...

Thierry Bros, PhD

Commodities - Is There Any Value Within the Complex?

Commodity fundamentals – actionable insight from CRB’s Fundamental DatabaseClearMacro is delighted to announce a collaboration with Barcharts/CRB...

ClearMacro

Confidence in Fed Hikes Waning

S interest rates have fallen significantly this year (-36bp) reducing the USD yield advantage. This has been matched by the GBP and CAD, but AUD...

Greg Gibbs

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