Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Which major Chinese cities are likely to outperform in 2017 on price growth/pickup in residential new home sales markets? In 2016 (Jan-Nov), we saw lower-tier spill-over cities near Tier-1 cities as top performers, followed by Hefei, Xiamen, Nanjing and Shenzhen, on a 12-month price growth basis. Which cities are worth watching in 2017?

Which major Chinese cities are likely to outperform in 2017 on price growth/pickup in residential new home sales markets? In 2016 (Jan-Nov), we saw lower-tier spill-over cities near Tier-1 cities as top performers, followed by Hefei, Xiamen, Nanjing and Shenzhen, on a 12-month price growth basis. Which cities are worth watching in 2017?

Chongqing comes up as the next 'lead city' in volume growth and price pickup in the 'commercial residential' new home sales market in China. The average performance of the city on a 12-month basis contrasts with a standout growth in volumes and pickup in prices in recent months (November data); the impact of latest January tightening measures is still to be seen, but the city has a good chance of becoming a relative outperformer in 2017.

Chongqing comes up as the next 'lead city' in volume growth and price pickup in the 'commercial residential' new home sales market in China. The average performance of the city on a 12-month basis contrasts with a standout growth in volumes and pickup in prices in recent months (November data); the impact of latest January tightening measures is still to be seen, but the city has a good chance of becoming a relative outperformer in 2017.

In our annual 2017 Forecast for the housing market in China (new home sales), the main scenario is a cyclical peak in the price growth in Dec/Jan (latest data is for Nov) and sharp deceleration to negative growth by the year-end.

In our annual 2017 Forecast for the housing market in China (new home sales), the main scenario is a cyclical peak in the price growth in Dec/Jan (latest data is for Nov) and sharp deceleration to negative growth by the year-end.

The housing market in Shanghai (new home sales) is showing signs of slight price growth deceleration from all-time highs, according to the latest data. Volumes growth is slowing down year-to-date year-on-year and declining sequentially, in response to the latest set of policy tightening measures in the city. Our volume-based model would suggest further price deceleration is to be expected, despite still-strong inventory clearing.

The housing market in Shanghai (new home sales) is showing signs of slight price growth deceleration from all-time highs, according to the latest data. Volumes growth is slowing down year-to-date year-on-year and declining sequentially, in response to the latest set of policy tightening measures in the city. Our volume-based model would suggest further price deceleration is to be expected, despite still-strong inventory clearing.

Co-founder & Managing Director, Marketnomix 

Rajan Govil

Co-founder & Managing Director

Marketnomix 

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Industrial production in China appears to be stabilizing above the 6.0% level</li><li>Impact of the economic and political policies of the incoming US administration as well as the impact of Brexit on China’s exports will need to be monitored</li><li>The RMB is likely to weaken as exports and economy slow and capital outflows continue</li></ul>

Industrial production in China appears to be stabilizing above the 6.0% levelImpact of the economic and political policies of the incoming US administration as well as the impact of Brexit on China’s exports will need to be monitoredThe RMB is likely to weaken as exports and economy slow and capital outflows continue

China

Gemdale Corporation develops residential buildings and operates in property rental and management. The Company also invests in commercial trading businesses.

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Gemdale Corp A (600383 CH)

China Property: 2017 City Picks

Which major Chinese cities are likely to outperform in 2017 on price growth/pickup in residential new home sales markets? In 2016 (Jan-Nov), we saw...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property: The Case of Chongqing

Chongqing comes up as the next 'lead city' in volume growth and price pickup in the 'commercial residential' new home sales market in China. The...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property 2017 Forecast Summary

In our annual 2017 Forecast for the housing market in China (new home sales), the main scenario is a cyclical peak in the price growth in Dec/Jan...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property: The Case Of Shanghai

The housing market in Shanghai (new home sales) is showing signs of slight price growth deceleration from all-time highs, according to the latest...

Robert Ciemniak

Marketnomix Insight: China

Industrial production in China appears to be stabilizing above the 6.0% level Impact of the economic and political policies of the incoming US...

Rajan Govil

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