Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Today's house price indices data from SouFun-CREIS on new home sales in China show accelerated growth for 100 cities overall index of 12.4% year-on-year in July, compared to 11.2% in June. Shenzhen continues to show the strongest growth on a 12-month basis with 41% increase and rising month-on-month, but that's slower than 52% in June. Lower-tier 'satellite' cities Dongguan, Huizhou, Kunshan, and Zhongshan saw house prices rise fastest in 2016. On a sequential month-on-month basis, the 100…

Today's house price indices data from SouFun-CREIS on new home sales in China show accelerated growth for 100 cities overall index of 12.4% year-on-year in July, compared to 11.2% in June. Shenzhen continues to show the strongest growth on a 12-month basis with 41% increase and rising month-on-month, but that's slower than 52% in June. Lower-tier 'satellite' cities Dongguan, Huizhou, Kunshan, and Zhongshan saw house prices rise fastest in 2016. On a sequential month-on-month basis, the 100…

The weekly data from SouFun-CREIS survey on new home sales in 35 major cities for the first three weeks of July (Weeks 28-30, or July 4 - 24) shows a further slowdown in sales volume growth, bringing year-to-date year-on-year change from 40% for the Weeks 1-26 to 35.5% for the Weeks 1-30. On a 4-week rolling year-on-year basis, the growth slowed down from 21% (Weeks 23-26) to 12% (Weeks 27-30). Historically, this 4-week rolling growth rate has been a fairly good indicator of what one could…

The weekly data from SouFun-CREIS survey on new home sales in 35 major cities for the first three weeks of July (Weeks 28-30, or July 4 - 24) shows a further slowdown in sales volume growth, bringing year-to-date year-on-year change from 40% for the Weeks 1-26 to 35.5% for the Weeks 1-30. On a 4-week rolling year-on-year basis, the growth slowed down from 21% (Weeks 23-26) to 12% (Weeks 27-30). Historically, this 4-week rolling growth rate has been a fairly good indicator of what one could…

Weekly China Property Sales Data In July Points At Further National Sales Growth Slowdown

In June 2016 (latest complete data), on YTD y/y basis, residential (incl. mixed-use) land GFA acquired by 20 major developers we track based on underlying data from SouFun-CREIS, increased by 31%, compared to 40% in May. Overall land sales of residential (incl. mixed use) land GFA in 40 major cities (Tier-1 and Tier-2) increased by 2.5%, compared to 6% in May YTD y/y. Acquisitions of pure commercial land grew by 64% in June on YTD y/y basis, compared to 136% in May.

In June 2016 (latest complete data), on YTD y/y basis, residential (incl. mixed-use) land GFA acquired by 20 major developers we track based on underlying data from SouFun-CREIS, increased by 31%, compared to 40% in May. Overall land sales of residential (incl. mixed use) land GFA in 40 major cities (Tier-1 and Tier-2) increased by 2.5%, compared to 6% in May YTD y/y. Acquisitions of pure commercial land grew by 64% in June on YTD y/y basis, compared to 136% in May.

Pickup In Land Sales In China Slows Down (June Data)

We rank the housing markets in 54 major cities in China on four metrics: 12-month house price growth, 12-month rolling year-on-year Gross Floor Area (GFA) sales volume growth,  3-month sequential price growth and 3-month volume growth, with latest data for June 2016.

We rank the housing markets in 54 major cities in China on four metrics: 12-month house price growth, 12-month rolling year-on-year Gross Floor Area (GFA) sales volume growth,  3-month sequential price growth and 3-month volume growth, with latest data for June 2016.

China Property: CityScreener(TM) Ranking of Housing Markets In 54 Cities - June 2016 Data

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Second-guessing the true rate of GDP growth in China has become a sort of art for many commentators.  For a long time, there have been questions about the stated GDP growth figures, which appear too robust, considering the rise in bad loans and many other metrics. The figures in Hong Kong may prove a good barometer of the magnitude of change and the distress within China GDP growth.Hong Kong reported 3.2% real GDP growth in June 2015, dropping steadily through December 2015, but now it is down…

Second-guessing the true rate of GDP growth in China has become a sort of art for many commentators.  For a long time, there have been questions about the stated GDP growth figures, which appear too robust, considering the rise in bad loans and many other metrics. The figures in Hong Kong may prove a good barometer of the magnitude of change and the distress within China GDP growth.Hong Kong reported 3.2% real GDP growth in June 2015, dropping steadily through December 2015, but now it is down…

Hong Kong's Growth Suggests More Weakness in China

China

Gemdale Corporation develops residential buildings and operates in property rental and management. The Company also invests in commercial trading businesses.

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Gemdale Corp A (600383 CH)

China House Prices Kept Rising In July

Today's house price indices data from SouFun-CREIS on new home sales in China show accelerated growth for 100 cities overall index of 12.4%...

Robert Ciemniak

Weekly China Property Sales Data In July Points At Further National Sales Growth Slowdown

The weekly data from SouFun-CREIS survey on new home sales in 35 major cities for the first three weeks of July (Weeks 28-30, or July 4 - 24) shows...

Robert Ciemniak

Pickup In Land Sales In China Slows Down (June Data)

In June 2016 (latest complete data), on YTD y/y basis, residential (incl. mixed-use) land GFA acquired by 20 major developers we track based on...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property: CityScreener(TM) Ranking of Housing Markets In 54 Cities - June 2016 Data

We rank the housing markets in 54 major cities in China on four metrics: 12-month house price growth, 12-month rolling year-on-year Gross Floor...

Robert Ciemniak

Hong Kong's Growth Suggests More Weakness in China

Second-guessing the true rate of GDP growth in China has become a sort of art for many commentators. For a long time, there have been questions...

Daniel Tabbush

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)