Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Kelusa Asia Focus Funds

Equity Bottom-Up

Geely's May 2016 number was a good one. Importantly, the momentum of  sales of the SUVs continued. A few key observations from the sales numbers and an investor presentation held recently are as follows : 1.  Overall Sales numbers up 19%, Domestic Sales increased 29% YoY , while Exports were weak - down -61% YoY. Domestic Sales increasing is the key as the margins here are higher. 2. The NL3 SUV sales were 6,049 units, comfortably beating the estimate of 5,000 for May set by management at the time of launch. Management reiterated its guidance of selling 20,000 units a month for this SUV by Q4. 3. The GS  SUV launched on April the 24th also achieved a decent sales number in its first full month of sales with 2,800 cars being sold; the preorders for this SUV are 25,000 which is also better than management's initial expectations.4. The number of dealerships has effectively been decreased from a high of 1,068 in 2013 to 648 as of now. The company has ironed out the inventory issues it faced in the past. 5. Two more product launches are slated for the second half.  One an SUV ( possibly the NL4 ) and the second an A segment sedan.

Geely's May 2016 number was a good one. Importantly, the momentum of  sales of the SUVs continued. A few key observations from the sales numbers and an investor presentation held recently are as follows : 1.  Overall Sales numbers up 19%, Domestic Sales increased 29% YoY , while Exports were weak - down -61% YoY. Domestic Sales increasing is the key as the margins here are higher. 2. The NL3 SUV sales were 6,049 units, comfortably beating the estimate of 5,000 for May set by management at the time of launch. Management reiterated its guidance of selling 20,000 units a month for this SUV by Q4. 3. The GS  SUV launched on April the 24th also achieved a decent sales number in its first full month of sales with 2,800 cars being sold; the preorders for this SUV are 25,000 which is also better than management's initial expectations.4. The number of dealerships has effectively been decreased from a high of 1,068 in 2013 to 648 as of now. The company has ironed out the inventory issues it faced in the past. 5. Two more product launches are slated for the second half.  One an SUV ( possibly the NL4 ) and the second an A segment sedan.  

Geely - May 2016 Sales , SUV Momentum Continues BUY the Transformation

Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

Riedel Research

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

A surprisingly poor employment report in the US became the central focus among investors across the globe on Friday. In May the US added just 38,000 jobs, well under the expected 156,000.A poor jobs report has triggered widespread concerns that a weak external environment is starting to feed through to infect the US economy. These concerns reflect the risk of what we define as a ‘bad de-polarization’ playing out in the global economy.Currently the global economy is extremely polarized (there is a large divergence between the health of the worlds strongest and weakest economies). As the global economy de-polarizes the health of the weakest economies will rise to converge with that of the strongest economies (a good de-polarization) or vice versa.

A surprisingly poor employment report in the US became the central focus among investors across the globe on Friday. In May the US added just 38,000 jobs, well under the expected 156,000.A poor jobs report has triggered widespread concerns that a weak external environment is starting to feed through to infect the US economy. These concerns reflect the risk of what we define as a ‘bad de-polarization’ playing out in the global economy.Currently the global economy is extremely polarized (there is a large divergence between the health of the worlds strongest and weakest economies). As the global economy de-polarizes the health of the weakest economies will rise to converge with that of the strongest economies (a good de-polarization) or vice versa.

Bad Jobs Report Good For Some EMs, Great For Others

CSI Deteriorates in May On Policy Uncertainty <ul>
<li>In May the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator (CSI) dropped to a level of 114.2, below the key threshold of 116 separating rationally pessimistic consumers from panicking consumers. </li>
<li>
Deterioration in the CSI during May stems from growing uncertainty over the future path of China’s monetary policy. As the urgent need for deleveraging has become apparent a mysterious article published by an anonymous 'authoritative figure' in the People's Daily…</li>
</ul>

CSI Deteriorates in May On Policy Uncertainty 
In May the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator (CSI) dropped to a level of 114.2, below the key threshold of 116 separating rationally pessimistic consumers from panicking consumers. 

Deterioration in the CSI during May stems from growing uncertainty over the future path of China’s monetary policy. As the urgent need for deleveraging has become apparent a mysterious article published by an anonymous 'authoritative figure' in the People's Daily…


China Consumer Sentiment Snapshot - Urgent Need for Deleveraging Becomes Apparent

China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Despite the promise of online retailing and its rapid growth, there are worrying signs that point to either a coming slowdown, data discrepancies, or unsustainable shifts in consumer behavior.  Though it is too soon to say for sure, what is happening, the warning signs are there.

Despite the promise of online retailing and its rapid growth, there are worrying signs that point to either a coming slowdown, data discrepancies, or unsustainable shifts in consumer behavior.  Though it is too soon to say for sure, what is happening, the warning signs are there.

I'm forking a piece that i wrote less than 24 hours ago <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/geely-attacking-the-incumbent-another-suv-launch" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:3647">Geely Attacking the Incumbent - Another SUV Launch !!!</a> . 2 Launches in 3 months and now we got the April sales number which was up 11% YoY.  While this is not exactly a stellar number, as the seasonal sales drop was a little more than average, it reflects that the new Boyue NL3 SUV sales are going pretty well. They surpassed management expectations of 3000 units for April and came out with a number 33% higher at 4002 units. Below is a SEAG…

I'm forking a piece that i wrote less than 24 hours ago Geely Attacking the Incumbent - Another SUV Launch !!! . 2 Launches in 3 months and now we got the April sales number which was up 11% YoY.  While this is not exactly a stellar number, as the seasonal sales drop was a little more than average, it reflects that the new Boyue NL3 SUV sales are going pretty well. They surpassed management expectations of 3000 units for April and came out with a number 33% higher at 4002 units. Below is a SEAG…

Geely - April Sales Good Start for the SUV NL3

Hong Kong

Geely Automobile Holdings Limited operates as a passenger vehicles manufacturing company. The Company provides passenger vehicles development, manufacturing, sales, and other services. Geely Automobile Holdings also exports passenger vehicles.

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Geely Auto (175 HK)

Geely - May 2016 Sales , SUV Momentum Continues BUY the Transformation

Geely's May 2016 number was a good one. Importantly, the momentum of sales of the SUVs continued. A few key observations from the sales numbers...

Sameer Taneja

Bad Jobs Report Good For Some EMs, Great For Others

A surprisingly poor employment report in the US became the central focus among investors across the globe on Friday. In May the US added just...

David Riedel

China Consumer Sentiment Snapshot - Urgent Need for Deleveraging Becomes Apparent

CSI Deteriorates in May On Policy Uncertainty In May the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator (CSI) dropped to a level of 114.2, below the key...

David Riedel

The State of Online Retailing in China

Despite the promise of online retailing and its rapid growth, there are worrying signs that point to either a coming slowdown, data discrepancies,...

Christopher Balding

Geely - April Sales Good Start for the SUV NL3

I'm forking a piece that i wrote less than 24 hours ago Geely Attacking the Incumbent - Another SUV Launch !!! . 2 Launches in 3 months and now we...

Sameer Taneja

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