Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>UK inflation in June was on the soft side, especially relative to the Consensus, as it defied the collective expectation and declined by 23bp. Underlying trends were stronger, but the inflationary impulse was weaker than even my dovish forecast.</li>
<li>
Recreation and transport weighed more than I forecast, but the surprise was not in games &amp; toys or petrol. AV equipment and vehicle prices were, which implies past strength was more transitory than GBP transmission. Furniture and clothing inflation…</li>
</ul>


UK inflation in June was on the soft side, especially relative to the Consensus, as it defied the collective expectation and declined by 23bp. Underlying trends were stronger, but the inflationary impulse was weaker than even my dovish forecast.

Recreation and transport weighed more than I forecast, but the surprise was not in games &amp; toys or petrol. AV equipment and vehicle prices were, which implies past strength was more transitory than GBP transmission. Furniture and clothing inflation…


UK Inflation: Subdued Enough to Buy the BoE Time

<ul>
<li>The UK LFS unemployment rate declined another tenth to 4.5%, taking it to the BoE’s estimate of the NAIRU and making the MPC’s trade-off uncomfortable.</li>
<li>Demand growth remains weak and this should discourage a response in August, consistent with recent guidance. However, with the Brexit-related devaluation looking increasingly like a supply shock, a hawkish response is building.</li>
<li>
I continue to expect the first BoE rate hike in May 2018 and also contrary to the consensus, I see this as the start of a…</li>
</ul>


The UK LFS unemployment rate declined another tenth to 4.5%, taking it to the BoE’s estimate of the NAIRU and making the MPC’s trade-off uncomfortable.
Demand growth remains weak and this should discourage a response in August, consistent with recent guidance. However, with the Brexit-related devaluation looking increasingly like a supply shock, a hawkish response is building.

I continue to expect the first BoE rate hike in May 2018 and also contrary to the consensus, I see this as the start of a…


FLASH: UK UR Fall Tightens Hawkish Pressure

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

An easing in Chinese financial stress indicators, a recovery in Chinese metals and coal futures prices, and generally upbeat Australian economic reports in recent weeks suggests that the AUD may perform relatively well in the near term at least.  Upside against the USD may be limited, but it may have room to rebound from near range lows against the NZD. While New Zealand economic activity remains robust, dairy prices have been stable in recent weeks, the New Zealand housing market appears to be more clearly slowing down in response to macroprudential measures introduced late last year.  The RBNZ is progressing on adding DTI limits to its macroprudential toolkit.  The NZ national election is coming into view and a return to the stable and respected National-led Parliament is not assured.  Futures market positioning suggests that there is an unusual net long NZD position held on the CME.  GBP looks vulnerable after a series of poor economic reports that suggest that Brexit uncertainty may only just be starting to undermine business confidence.  Furthermore, political uncertainty is still rising as the authority of PM May is questioned in parliament and by the media.  The BoE may have been premature in warning of possible rate hikes later this year.  Near term, direction may depend on the UK labour report this week.

An easing in Chinese financial stress indicators, a recovery in Chinese metals and coal futures prices, and generally upbeat Australian economic reports in recent weeks suggests that the AUD may perform relatively well in the near term at least.  Upside against the USD may be limited, but it may have room to rebound from near range lows against the NZD. While New Zealand economic activity remains robust, dairy prices have been stable in recent weeks, the New Zealand housing market appears to be more clearly slowing down in response to macroprudential measures introduced late last year.  The RBNZ is progressing on adding DTI limits to its macroprudential toolkit.  The NZ national election is coming into view and a return to the stable and respected National-led Parliament is not assured.  Futures market positioning suggests that there is an unusual net long NZD position held on the CME.  GBP looks vulnerable after a series of poor economic reports that suggest that Brexit uncertainty may only just be starting to undermine business confidence.  Furthermore, political uncertainty is still rising as the authority of PM May is questioned in parliament and by the media.  The BoE may have been premature in warning of possible rate hikes later this year.  Near term, direction may depend on the UK labour report this week.

AUD Clouds Clearing, GBP Storm Clouds Brewing

<ul>
<li>UK industrial data broadly disappointed the consensus for May, and are now on track to subtract 15bp from Q2 GDP growth, including 10bp from construction. My tracking estimate has fallen by 0.1pp to a very low3% q-o-q.</li>
<li>Imports of semi-manufactured goods point to better times ahead, even while contributing to the widening external deficit again in May.</li>
<li>
With Q2 GDP growth looking unlikely to be a material improvement on the disappointingly soft Q1 performance, there is a good reason for the BoE not…</li>
</ul>


UK industrial data broadly disappointed the consensus for May, and are now on track to subtract 15bp from Q2 GDP growth, including 10bp from construction. My tracking estimate has fallen by 0.1pp to a very low3% q-o-q.
Imports of semi-manufactured goods point to better times ahead, even while contributing to the widening external deficit again in May.

With Q2 GDP growth looking unlikely to be a material improvement on the disappointingly soft Q1 performance, there is a good reason for the BoE not…


FLASH: UK Industry Hacks GDP and August Hike Risk

This '<a href="http://heteronomics.us13.list-manage.com/track/click?u=13e34519b27a95c85c834d500&amp;id=87ace8314a&amp;e=aab4f65cc5" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en-GB&amp;q=http://heteronomics.us13.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D13e34519b27a95c85c834d500%26id%3D87ace8314a%26e%3Daab4f65cc5&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1499427320003000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEv7AHjk3eWzuIcUjRg98EomZgrlA">Wrap</a>' pulls together the UK story as an annotated compilation of my published charts, updated to include the latest data.<ul>
<li>Activity: Slowdown was sharp in Q1, but signs suggest stabilisation, while imbalances leave large risks.</li>
<li>Inflation: Easter distorted the GBP-related trend rise. A pause before hitting a 3% peak looks likely.</li>
<li>BoE: The BoE is pointing to a Nov-17 hike, but I expect the first in May-18, with risks skewed earlier.</li>
<li>
Politics: Withdrawal negotiations have begun, but a new trade…</li>
</ul>

This 'Wrap' pulls together the UK story as an annotated compilation of my published charts, updated to include the latest data.
Activity: Slowdown was sharp in Q1, but signs suggest stabilisation, while imbalances leave large risks.
Inflation: Easter distorted the GBP-related trend rise. A pause before hitting a 3% peak looks likely.
BoE: The BoE is pointing to a Nov-17 hike, but I expect the first in May-18, with risks skewed earlier.

Politics: Withdrawal negotiations have begun, but a new trade…


UK Wrap: Policymakers Preparing for Lift Off

United Kingdom

The British Pound Sterling is the official currency of The United Kingdom. 

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UK Inflation: Subdued Enough to Buy the BoE Time

UK inflation in June was on the soft side, especially relative to the Consensus, as it defied the collective expectation and declined by 23bp....

Phil Rush

FLASH: UK UR Fall Tightens Hawkish Pressure

The UK LFS unemployment rate declined another tenth to 4.5%, taking it to the BoE’s estimate of the NAIRU and making the MPC’s trade-off...

Phil Rush

AUD Clouds Clearing, GBP Storm Clouds Brewing

An easing in Chinese financial stress indicators, a recovery in Chinese metals and coal futures prices, and generally upbeat Australian economic...

Greg Gibbs

FLASH: UK Industry Hacks GDP and August Hike Risk

UK industrial data broadly disappointed the consensus for May, and are now on track to subtract 15bp from Q2 GDP growth, including 10bp from...

Phil Rush

UK Wrap: Policymakers Preparing for Lift Off

This 'Wrap' pulls together the UK story as an annotated compilation of my published charts, updated to include the latest data. Activity: Slowdown...

Phil Rush

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