External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>CFTC positioning data show a second successive improvement in speculative USD sentiment but the improvement is limited (less than USD500mn) and Speculative Accounts retain a net short USD position on aggregate of USD12.5bn.</li><li>This is little changed over the past three weeks, perhaps reflecting light, summer trading. Real Money Accounts retain a sizeable aggregate USD short position (USD38bn, up a little under USD2bn on the week) while Leveraged Accounts reversed a small, aggregate USD short position to a minor net long (USD5bn).</li><li>These hedge fund traders have tended to hold a similarly sized net USD long on aggregate since March.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

CFTC positioning data show a second successive improvement in speculative USD sentiment but the improvement is limited (less than USD500mn) and Speculative Accounts retain a net short USD position on aggregate of USD12.5bn.This is little changed over the past three weeks, perhaps reflecting light, summer trading. Real Money Accounts retain a sizeable aggregate USD short position (USD38bn, up a little under USD2bn on the week) while Leveraged Accounts reversed a small, aggregate USD short position to a minor net long (USD5bn).These hedge fund traders have tended to hold a similarly sized net USD long on aggregate since March.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Speculative USD Sentiment Improves Slightly

Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

<ul><li>The Core Core CPI is currently at 7.1% and persistently high. The Bank of England is facing a difficult situation with no simple solutions.</li><li>Raising rates by 50 bps was a step in the right direction.</li><li>The headline June and July CPI may appear lower due to the base effect of Energy prices.</li></ul>

The Core Core CPI is currently at 7.1% and persistently high. The Bank of England is facing a difficult situation with no simple solutions.Raising rates by 50 bps was a step in the right direction.The headline June and July CPI may appear lower due to the base effect of Energy prices.

Technical Analysis

<ul><li>Efforts to identify peak inflation and yields or lows in growth stocks and new investments have not worked in 2022.  </li><li>The assumption has been that prices should revert towards the mean once they have moved 3-5 standard deviations away as they have done in the last decade.</li><li>If we use what has happened to yield in the last 35+ years as a framework. You would continue to look for peak yields as soon as we start approaching the trend channel or key resistance and plotting the next financial crisis to coincide with yield reversals.</li></ul>

Efforts to identify peak inflation and yields or lows in growth stocks and new investments have not worked in 2022.  The assumption has been that prices should revert towards the mean once they have moved 3-5 standard deviations away as they have done in the last decade.If we use what has happened to yield in the last 35+ years as a framework. You would continue to look for peak yields as soon as we start approaching the trend channel or key resistance and plotting the next financial crisis to coincide with yield reversals.

United Kingdom

The British Pound Sterling is the official currency of The United Kingdom. 

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GBP (GBPUSD CURNCY)

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Speculative USD Sentiment Improves Slightly

CFTC positioning data show a second successive improvement in speculative USD sentiment but the improvement is limited (less than USD500mn)

Scotiabank

GBP Crosses, Banks and Rates

The Core Core CPI is currently at 7.1% and persistently high. The Bank of England is facing a difficult situation with no simple solutions.

Untying The Gordian Knot

Positioning and Imbalances

Efforts to identify peak inflation and yields or lows in growth stocks and new investments have not worked in 2022. The assumption has been...

Untying The Gordian Knot

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