IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ctos-digital-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33496:1" rel="noopener">CTOS Digital (1054055D MK)</a> is a regional market leader for credit bureaux in the ASEAN region, with a presence in Malaysia and Thailand. CTOS is Malaysia’s leading CRA (credit reporting agency), with a revenue market share of 71.2% in 2020, according to IMR.  CTOS has launched an IPO to raise RM1.2 billion ($290 million) at an initial price of RM1.10 per share. The primary/secondary split is 18%/82%. The selling shareholders are Inodes (backed by the Creador Group), Chung Tze Keong (co-founder), Chung Tze Wen (co-founder) and Ng Gaik Lin. Pricing will be announced on 7 July and the shares will be listed on 19 July.CTOS has a dominant position in Malaysia, which is the second-largest CRA market in ASEAN by revenue. The recent acquisition of Basis, a Malaysian CRA, further cements its position in Malaysia. CTOS' market share is supported by the industry’s high barriers to entry, CTOS’s proprietary database ecosystem and a full suite of digital solutions with a focus on new value-added services. CTOS’ acquisition strategy has also enabled it to gain a foothold in merging credit reporting markets outside of Malaysia. For example, the acquisition of a 20% interest in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/business-online-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18347:1" rel="noopener">Business Online (BOL TB)</a>, the largest credit bureaux in Thailand, provides an entry point into the Thai market.    <div class="content-highlight">CTOS is complementing its strong market position by delivering solid revenue growth (on a like-for-like basis), strong customer retention rates, sector leading margin and strong cash generation. Overall, we think that the CTOS story warrants a closer look.  We will discuss valuation in our next note.  </div>

CTOS Digital (1054055D MK) is a regional market leader for credit bureaux in the ASEAN region, with a presence in Malaysia and Thailand. CTOS is Malaysia’s leading CRA (credit reporting agency), with a revenue market share of 71.2% in 2020, according to IMR.  CTOS has launched an IPO to raise RM1.2 billion ($290 million) at an initial price of RM1.10 per share. The primary/secondary split is 18%/82%. The selling shareholders are Inodes (backed by the Creador Group), Chung Tze Keong (co-founder), Chung Tze Wen (co-founder) and Ng Gaik Lin. Pricing will be announced on 7 July and the shares will be listed on 19 July.CTOS has a dominant position in Malaysia, which is the second-largest CRA market in ASEAN by revenue. The recent acquisition of Basis, a Malaysian CRA, further cements its position in Malaysia. CTOS' market share is supported by the industry’s high barriers to entry, CTOS’s proprietary database ecosystem and a full suite of digital solutions with a focus on new value-added services. CTOS’ acquisition strategy has also enabled it to gain a foothold in merging credit reporting markets outside of Malaysia. For example, the acquisition of a 20% interest in Business Online (BOL TB), the largest credit bureaux in Thailand, provides an entry point into the Thai market.    CTOS is complementing its strong market position by delivering solid revenue growth (on a like-for-like basis), strong customer retention rates, sector leading margin and strong cash generation. Overall, we think that the CTOS story warrants a closer look.  We will discuss valuation in our next note.  

CTOS Digital IPO Initiation: Keeping Tabs

Leading International Investment Research, Edison Investment Research

Edison Investment Research

Leading International Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisors and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting.

Equity Bottom-Up

GB Group (GBG) reported FY21 results substantially in line with our recently upgraded forecasts. In a difficult year, GBG managed to grow revenue by 9% (12% on an organic basis) and EPS by 21% while repaying all debt. Management has returned to a growth footing, investing in product development and sales capacity while continuing to seek acquisitions that could expand product or market coverage. We have upgraded our normalised diluted EPS forecasts by 3.1% for FY22 and 2.0% for FY23 and introduce a forecast for EPS growth of 9.3% in FY24.

GB Group (GBG) reported FY21 results substantially in line with our recently upgraded forecasts. In a difficult year, GBG managed to grow revenue by 9% (12% on an organic basis) and EPS by 21% while repaying all debt. Management has returned to a growth footing, investing in product development and sales capacity while continuing to seek acquisitions that could expand product or market coverage. We have upgraded our normalised diluted EPS forecasts by 3.1% for FY22 and 2.0% for FY23 and introduce a forecast for EPS growth of 9.3% in FY24.

GB Group - Benefiting from the shift to online transactions

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

While a more cautious outlook is appropriate, as long as $77 holds (the September lows) we are constructive and would be buyers on a pullback. A move below $77 would start to get very concerning, and would leave $75 and the 200-day MA as last-ditch support. Considering the recent pullback we want to be sticking with areas that have continued to outperform in spite of recent broad market weakness. For that we look to the following leadership Sectors: Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Manufacturing, Materials, and Transportation

While a more cautious outlook is appropriate, as long as $77 holds (the September lows) we are constructive and would be buyers on a pullback. A move below $77 would start to get very concerning, and would leave $75 and the 200-day MA as last-ditch support. Considering the recent pullback we want to be sticking with areas that have continued to outperform in spite of recent broad market weakness. For that we look to the following leadership Sectors: Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Manufacturing, Materials, and Transportation

GB Group (GBG) expects to report underlying revenue growth of 10% y-o-y for H121, with a one-off contract in the US making a material contribution to revenues. Combined with strict cost control this resulted in adjusted operating profit growth of 26% y-o-y and a £32m h-o-h reduction in net debt. With management guidance for revenue well ahead of our and consensus forecasts for FY21, we have upgraded our revenue and EPS forecasts for FY21–23. Despite COVID-19 related pressure on new business in the short-term, we view GBG as well placed to benefit from the accelerated shift in the digitalisation of business processes.

GB Group (GBG) expects to report underlying revenue growth of 10% y-o-y for H121, with a one-off contract in the US making a material contribution to revenues. Combined with strict cost control this resulted in adjusted operating profit growth of 26% y-o-y and a £32m h-o-h reduction in net debt. With management guidance for revenue well ahead of our and consensus forecasts for FY21, we have upgraded our revenue and EPS forecasts for FY21–23. Despite COVID-19 related pressure on new business in the short-term, we view GBG as well placed to benefit from the accelerated shift in the digitalisation of business processes.  


GB Group - Resilient H1 trading drives upgrades

GB Group reported strong performance in FY20 and started taking measures to preserve cash in Q420. Trading in Q121 has been mixed and while management is unwilling to provide guidance for FY21, it has confidence that in the longer term it is well positioned to benefit from the acceleration in digital transformation that should drive demand for its identity data intelligence services. We have upgraded our EPS forecasts by 5% in FY21 and 3% in FY22.

GB Group reported strong performance in FY20 and started taking measures to preserve cash in Q420. Trading in Q121 has been mixed and while management is unwilling to provide guidance for FY21, it has confidence that in the longer term it is well positioned to benefit from the acceleration in digital transformation that should drive demand for its identity data intelligence services. We have upgraded our EPS forecasts by 5% in FY21 and 3% in FY22.

GB Group - Managing cash now to support long-term strategy

United Kingdom

GB Group plc develops, sells, and supports business application software.  The Company also provides database management and analysis services, as well as licenses technology.

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GB Group PLC (GBG LN)

CTOS Digital IPO Initiation: Keeping Tabs

CTOS is complementing its strong market position by delivering solid growth, strong customer retention rates, sector leading margin and strong cash...

Arun George

GB Group - Benefiting from the shift to online transactions

GB Group (GBG) reported FY21 results substantially in line with our recently upgraded forecasts. In a difficult year, GBG managed to grow revenue...

Edison Investment Research

Cautiously Optimistic on Global Equities

We are constructive on global equities and would be buyers on a pullback. A move below $77 would start to get very concerning, and would leave $75...

Vermilion Research

GB Group - Resilient H1 trading drives upgrades

GB Group (GBG) expects to report underlying revenue growth of 10% y-o-y for H121, with a one-off contract in the US making a material contribution...

Edison Investment Research

GB Group - Managing cash now to support long-term strategy

GB Group reported strong performance in FY20 and started taking measures to preserve cash in Q420. Trading in Q121 has been mixed and while...

Edison Investment Research

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