Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Trung Nguyen

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

In our view, the government is taking control of Garuda,آ as several announcements have beenآ made by the SOE Minister instead of the company. We deem it unlikely that the Indonesian government willآ allow the nation's flag carrier to fail. Hence, We believe any restructuring package, which could include a maturity extension, would not be too adverse for existing Noteholders.آ We therefore maintain our "Hold" recommendation on the GARUDA 5.95 20 Notes. That said, in light of these developments we move our assessment on the LARA scale to "Medium Risk" from "Low Risk".

  In our view, the government is taking control of Garuda,آ as several announcements have beenآ made by the SOE Minister instead of the company. We deem it unlikely that the Indonesian government willآ allow the nation's flag carrier to fail. Hence, We believe any restructuring package, which could include a maturity extension, would not be too adverse for existing Noteholders.آ We therefore maintain our "Hold" recommendation on the GARUDA 5.95 20 Notes.   That said, in light of these developments we move our assessment on the LARA scale to "Medium Risk" from "Low Risk". 

Garuda - Event Flash - Potential Debt Restructuring - Lucror Analytics

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

In my inaugural insight on Thai stocks, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/airports-of-thailand-aot-yet-to-fall" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:36434" rel="noopener">Airports of Thailand (AOT): Yet to Fall</a> , the company is just experiencing a drop in the number of tourists from China. This insight will discuss the management's willingness to help its tenants' survival during the COVID-19 period actually hurts more than it predicted. 
The management's willingness to provide cushion for its tenants means that it has to lose a defensive part of the business (concession). BUY on weakness? Not yet, unfortunately...

In my inaugural insight on Thai stocks, Airports of Thailand (AOT): Yet to Fall , the company is just experiencing a drop in the number of tourists from China. This insight will discuss the management's willingness to help its tenants' survival during the COVID-19 period actually hurts more than it predicted. 
The management's willingness to provide cushion for its tenants means that it has to lose a defensive part of the business (concession). BUY on weakness? Not yet, unfortunately...

Airports of Thailand (AOT): Fallen Enough?

Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.
<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/garuda-indonesia-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12151" rel="noopener">Garuda Indonesia (Persero) (GIAA IJ)</a> </li>
<li><a href="#lucror-entity-18561" target="_blank" rel="noopener">JSW Steel Ltd</a></li>
<li><a href="#lucror-entity-472" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MGM China Holdings</a></li>
<li><a href="#lucror-entity-240" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Sunac China Holdings</a></li>
</ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Garuda Indonesia (Persero) (GIAA IJ) 
JSW Steel Ltd
MGM China Holdings
Sunac China Holdings


Morning Views Asia: Garuda Indonesia, JSW Steel Ltd, MGM China Holdings

In this month's “In-Focus”, we discuss Chinese offshore bond defaults in 2019. We look at the broader trends as well as select cases, and give our key takeaways on how best to assess the credit profiles of Chinese companies. The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.

  In this month's “In-Focus”, we discuss Chinese offshore bond defaults in 2019. We look at the broader trends as well as select cases, and give our key takeaways on how best to assess the credit profiles of Chinese companies.   The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.  

Asia HY Monthly - Chinese Offshore Bond Defaults - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Recommendations report for January includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. We also provide relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index.

  The Asia HY Trade Recommendations report for January includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. We also provide relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index.  

Asia HY Trade Recommendations - January 2020 - Lucror Analytics

Indonesia

Samudera Indonesia Tbk provides sea transportation services including regional container shipping services and tankers, offshore services, land transportation services for heavy equipment and containers, storage and maintenance for containers, warehousing and forwarding services. The Company also acts as an agent for other global shipping companies.

PT Nusantara Infrastructure Tbk is an investment holding company. The Company holds subsidiaries engaged in toll road, sea port, and other infrastructure related business.

PT Blue Bird Tbk is a transportation services company. The Company offers taxis, limousines, car rentals, and chartered buses.

PT Adi Sarana Armada Tbk is a company that is engaged in the integrated technology-based of people and goods mobility ecosystem that serves the retail, corporate, and other public segments through three main business pillars: 1) Transportation (Vehicle Lease, Autopool, and Driver); 2) End-to-end Logistics (ASSA Logistics and Express Delivery – Anteraja); and 3) Used Vehicle Ecosystem (Auction – JBA and Online-to-Offline Used Car Dealer – Caroline) under subsidiary PT Autopedia Sukses Lestari Tbk.

PT. Trans Power Marine Tbk is a marine shipping transportation company. The Company offers tug and barge services for the transportation of bulk cargo. PT Trans Power Marine operates out of Indonesia and South East Asia.

PT Cardig Aero Services TBK provides ground and cargo handling services to airports throughout Indonesia. The Company also provides catering, in-flight catering and facilities management services for mining operations nationally.

PT Mitrabahtera Segara Sejati Tbk is an integrated coal transport and logistics services company. The Company provides river and sea-based coal transport solutions to Indonesia's coal mining industry as well as operates on-shore and off-shore coal loading terminals and provides a broad range of services, including loading, shipping, trans-shipping and ocean trade stevedoring of co

PT Buana Listya Tama Tbk offers freight transportation services.  The Company transports oil and natural gas.  The Company operates oil tankers, gas tankers, chemical tankers, and a floating production storage and offloading unit.

PT Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada Tbk constructs, operates, and manages toll highways systems.  The Company derives its revenue primarily from toll gate proceeds, project management fees, and related services.

PT Indonesia Kendaraan Terminal provides vehicle terminal services. The Company offers stevedoring, cargodoring, receiving, and delivery services. Indonesia Kendaraan Terminal serves clients in Indonesia.

Spirit Airlines Inc. is a low-fare airline based in Miramar, Florida. The Airline provides low-cost travel opportunities principally to and from South Florida, the Caribbean and Latin America. Spirit Airlines basic service combines with a range of optional services for additional fees, targets price sensitive leisure travelers and travelers visiting friends and relatives.

Alliance Aviation Services Ltd. is a mining services company. The Company specializes in providing transportation by air of its mining and energy customers' employees and contractors to and from remote locations, ad hoc charter services - operating commercial air charters servicing the needs of Government and corporate customers, and wet leasing services.

Skymark Airlines Inc. provides air transportation services.  The Company's services include scheduled flights for passengers and air courier services. Skymark Airlines conducts businesses in Japan.

Icelandair Group hf is a holding company.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, offers scheduled air carrier operations, tourist services and transport operations; buys and sells real estate; and conducts credit operations and other related services.  Icelandair flies between Iceland, Western Europe, and North America.

Cebu Air, Inc. operates an airline under the Cebu Pacific Air name in the Philippines. It offers scheduled air travel services to passengers, as well as airport-to-airport cargo services on its domestic and international routes. The company also provides ancillary services, such as cancellation and rebooking options; in-flight merchandising, including sale of duty-free products on international flights; baggage services; and travel-related products and services. As of December 31, 2015, Cebu Air, Inc. operated a fleet of 55 aircraft, which includes 8 Airbus A319, 33 Airbus A320, 6 Airbus A330, and 8 ATR 72-500 aircraft. The company has a strategic alliance with Tigerair. Cebu Air, Inc. was incorporated in 1988 and is headquartered in Pasay City, the Philippines. Cebu Air, Inc. is a subsidiary of CPAir Holdings, Inc.

Chorus Aviation, Inc. operates a regional airline.  The Company offers scheduled air passenger services on behalf of Air Canada to destinations in Canada and the United States.

Thai Airways International Public Company Limited is Thailand's national airline providing air transportation, freight and mail services on domestic and international routes including Asia, Europe, North America, Africa and South West Pacific.  The Company is a state enterprise which is controlled by the government and partly owned by the public.

Tway Air Co., Ltd operates as an airline company. The Company offers flight, hotel, car booking services. Tway Air also provides reissuance of ticket, baggage, airport, and in-flight services. Tway Air serves customers worldwide.

Jin Air Co.,Ltd. provides air transportation services. The Company offers passenger and freight air transportation services, aviation equipment maintenance, aircraft leasing services, and other services. Jin Air also provides ticket and hotel booking and consulting services.

Air Busan Co., Ltd. operates as an airline company. The Company offers international and domestic flight, hotel, and car booking services. Air busan also provides reissuance of ticket, baggage, airport, and in flight services. Air busan offers services worldwide.

PT Garuda Indonesia Persero Tbk provides airline services. The Company offers domestic and international flights, online check in, and associated services for passengers, baggage, and cargo.

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Garuda Indonesia (Persero) (GIAA IJ)

Garuda - Event Flash - Potential Debt Restructuring - Lucror Analytics

In our view, the government is taking control of Garuda,آ as several announcements have beenآ made by the SOE Minister instead of the company. We...

Lucror Analytics

Airports of Thailand (AOT): Fallen Enough?

In my inaugural insight on Thai stocks, Airports of Thailand (AOT): Yet to Fall , the company is just experiencing a drop in the number of tourists...

Henry Soediarko

Morning Views Asia: Garuda Indonesia, JSW Steel Ltd, MGM China Holdings

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

Asia HY Monthly - Chinese Offshore Bond Defaults - Lucror Analytics

In this month's “In-Focus”, we discuss Chinese offshore bond defaults in 2019. We look at the broader trends as well as select cases, and give our...

Lucror Analytics

Asia HY Trade Recommendations - January 2020 - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Recommendations report for January includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. We also...

Lucror Analytics

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