Equity Research Focusing on the Consumer Sector, Small Cap Consumer Research

Small Cap Consumer Research

Equity Research Focusing on the Consumer Sector

Small Cap Consumer Research, LLC is a leading company-sponsored equity research provider focusing on the consumer sector (apparel, brand licensing and specialty retailing segments).

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We are reiterating our Buy rating and $20 price target for Express, but lowering our 4QFY23 projections after visiting stores in Long Island and Connecticut.</li><li>That said, we believe the near term impact will be to reduce gross margins; as such, while we are maintaining our 4Q23 top line projections, we are lowering our gross margin projections, which results in increased 4Q losses.</li><li>We believe the negative impact will be localized into FY23 and are leaving our FY24 projections unchanged.</li></ul>

We are reiterating our Buy rating and $20 price target for Express, but lowering our 4QFY23 projections after visiting stores in Long Island and Connecticut.That said, we believe the near term impact will be to reduce gross margins; as such, while we are maintaining our 4Q23 top line projections, we are lowering our gross margin projections, which results in increased 4Q losses.We believe the negative impact will be localized into FY23 and are leaving our FY24 projections unchanged.

EXPR: Snapping the Store; Clearing Out for a New Year; Reiterate Buy Rating, PT

<ul><li>We are reiterating our Buy rating, $20 price target and projections for Express as we enter the new year.</li><li>With FY24 setting up as the first complete fiscal year under new CEO Stewart Glendinning, we look for Express to begin to leverage the gains from material cost saving programs, continue to expand the relationship with brand licensor WHP Global, further demonstrate the strength of the Bonobos acquisition and re-energize the Express brand to once again register consistent, profitable results.</li><li>As such, we believe FY24 will be a crucial period of initial cleanup and setting the stage for a stronger future which, if successful, will position the company to register material upside from somewhat apathetic Street expectations.</li></ul>

We are reiterating our Buy rating, $20 price target and projections for Express as we enter the new year.With FY24 setting up as the first complete fiscal year under new CEO Stewart Glendinning, we look for Express to begin to leverage the gains from material cost saving programs, continue to expand the relationship with brand licensor WHP Global, further demonstrate the strength of the Bonobos acquisition and re-energize the Express brand to once again register consistent, profitable results.As such, we believe FY24 will be a crucial period of initial cleanup and setting the stage for a stronger future which, if successful, will position the company to register material upside from somewhat apathetic Street expectations.

EXPR: 2024 Signposts: Creating the New Baseline; Reiterate Buy Rating, $20 PT

<ul><li>We are reiterating our Buy rating, price target and projections for Express after visiting stores in Connecticut and Long Island.</li><li>As such, we believe Express is on track to achieve our 4Q projections.</li><li>We reiterate our Buy rating and price target.</li></ul>

We are reiterating our Buy rating, price target and projections for Express after visiting stores in Connecticut and Long Island.As such, we believe Express is on track to achieve our 4Q projections.We reiterate our Buy rating and price target.

EXPR: Getting Clean as Near Peak Xmas; Reiterate Buy Rating, $20 PT

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since 11/21/23 Compass we have discussed weekly that even a minor 2-5% pullback is far from a guarantee, considering "breakaway gaps" and what appeared to be an ongoing "lockout rally"</li>
<li>All we got was a 1% peak to trough decline in the S&amp;P 500, while the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) pulled back 2.9% (though left the 11/14/23 gap unfilled).</li>
<li>Now, SPX and QQQ are breaking out yet again after a multi-week consolidation period, including SPX breaking above 2-year resistance at 4600-4607. This is what a strong market looks like.</li>
</ul>


Since 11/21/23 Compass we have discussed weekly that even a minor 2-5% pullback is far from a guarantee, considering "breakaway gaps" and what appeared to be an ongoing "lockout rally"
All we got was a 1% peak to trough decline in the S&amp;P 500, while the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) pulled back 2.9% (though left the 11/14/23 gap unfilled).
Now, SPX and QQQ are breaking out yet again after a multi-week consolidation period, including SPX breaking above 2-year resistance at 4600-4607. This is what a strong market looks like.


Lockout Rally Continues; Breakouts Piling Up; SPX Breakout Above 2-Yr Resistance at 4600-4607

<ul><li>We are cutting our projections and price target for Express, but maintaining our Buy rating after the company missed 3Q projections and guided to a materially weaker than expected 4Q.</li><li>Further, with inventories heavier than expected ahead of the Holiday season (up 14% YoY, or flat if Bonobos is excluded) we expect the season to remain aggressively promotional and, in the near term, offset any gains from cost savings and other S,G&A reductions (and probably spill over into Q1FY24).</li><li>Our new price target of $20 (down from $40) translates to 8.2X our new, materially lowered FY24 EBITDA projection.</li></ul>

We are cutting our projections and price target for Express, but maintaining our Buy rating after the company missed 3Q projections and guided to a materially weaker than expected 4Q.Further, with inventories heavier than expected ahead of the Holiday season (up 14% YoY, or flat if Bonobos is excluded) we expect the season to remain aggressively promotional and, in the near term, offset any gains from cost savings and other S,G&A reductions (and probably spill over into Q1FY24).Our new price target of $20 (down from $40) translates to 8.2X our new, materially lowered FY24 EBITDA projection.

EXPR: 3Q Review; Cleaning Up the Mess; Reiterate Buy, Lowering PT to $20

United States

The Gap, Inc., is an international specialty retailer operating retail and outlet stores.  The Company sells casual apparel, accessories and personal care products for men, women, and children. The Gap operates stores in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Ireland, and Japan.

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Gap Inc/The (GPS US)

EXPR: Snapping the Store; Clearing Out for a New Year; Reiterate Buy Rating, PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating and $20 price target for Express, but lowering our 4QFY23 projections after visiting stores in Long Island and...

Small Cap Consumer Research

EXPR: 2024 Signposts: Creating the New Baseline; Reiterate Buy Rating, $20 PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating, $20 price target and projections for Express as we enter the new year. With FY24 setting up as the first...

Small Cap Consumer Research

EXPR: Getting Clean as Near Peak Xmas; Reiterate Buy Rating, $20 PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating, price target and projections for Express after visiting stores in Connecticut and Long Island. As such, we...

Small Cap Consumer Research

Lockout Rally Continues; Breakouts Piling Up; SPX Breakout Above 2-Yr Resistance at 4600-4607

Lockout Rally Continues; Breakouts Piling Up; $SPX Breakout Above 2-Yr Resistance at 4600-4607, $COMP Breakout Above 14,400. This is what a strong...

Vermilion Research

EXPR: 3Q Review; Cleaning Up the Mess; Reiterate Buy, Lowering PT to $20

We are cutting our projections and price target for Express, but maintaining our Buy rating after the company missed 3Q projections and guided to...

Small Cap Consumer Research

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