Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

Market dynamics remain largely bullish and we continue to see signs of improving risk appetites. As a result, we are on the verge of shifting to an outright bullish stance. High yield spreads hit new 2021 narrows on Friday as they moved to 14-year lows. Additionally, defensive areas including Staples (XLP), Utilities (XLU), and Gold (GLD) are breaking to new 2021 RS lows.

Market dynamics remain largely bullish and we continue to see signs of improving risk appetites. As a result, we are on the verge of shifting to an outright bullish stance. High yield spreads hit new 2021 narrows on Friday as they moved to 14-year lows. Additionally, defensive areas including Staples (XLP), Utilities (XLU), and Gold (GLD) are breaking to new 2021 RS lows.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Downgrading Consumer Staples To Underweight; Watching 10-Year Yield Closely

Market dynamics have deteriorated and are now much more mixed overall. Deteriorating signals include RS improvement for defensive Sectors, RS deterioration for small-caps, and the US dollar breaking above 92. Despite this mild deterioration in market dynamics, there are plenty of indicators that remain positive. This tells us any weakness should be treated as a buying opportunity and our outlook remains constructive for the months ahead.

Market dynamics have deteriorated and are now much more mixed overall. Deteriorating signals include RS improvement for defensive Sectors, RS deterioration for small-caps, and the US dollar breaking above 92. Despite this mild deterioration in market dynamics, there are plenty of indicators that remain positive. This tells us any weakness should be treated as a buying opportunity and our outlook remains constructive for the months ahead.

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

Fast Retailing looks like finally having the potential to become number one.Like other Japanese apparel retailers, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> faces challenges over the coming six months but its discipline and forward planning bode well for improving returns.It is overseas markets where its real opportunity and challenges lie but Uniqlo looks like having more traction globally than ever before, fast becoming a true global retailer.While disciplined supply chain management and product development help, there is one ingredient above all that looks set to help it compete at the top of the rankings: at last it has a coherent, meaningful – and increasingly global – brand.Today, Uniqlo is regarded as an innovator not through design but through fabric development, using its access to Japan’s myriad textile and technology businesses to adapt new inventions to apparel and accessories.This coherent branding means Fast Retailing looks set to take on Inditex and H&amp;M for leadership at the top of the global apparel rankings.On the profit side, while Fast Retailing has for long been a profit machine compared to its Japanese peers, it has always lagged companies like Inditex because of its insistence of maintaining store stock levels. It is now working to rationalise this policy with significant implications for future profitability.The following is an in-depth review of Uniqlo from a brand, merchandising and marketing perspective.

Fast Retailing looks like finally having the potential to become number one.Like other Japanese apparel retailers, Fast Retailing (9983 JP) faces challenges over the coming six months but its discipline and forward planning bode well for improving returns.It is overseas markets where its real opportunity and challenges lie but Uniqlo looks like having more traction globally than ever before, fast becoming a true global retailer.While disciplined supply chain management and product development help, there is one ingredient above all that looks set to help it compete at the top of the rankings: at last it has a coherent, meaningful – and increasingly global – brand.Today, Uniqlo is regarded as an innovator not through design but through fabric development, using its access to Japan’s myriad textile and technology businesses to adapt new inventions to apparel and accessories.This coherent branding means Fast Retailing looks set to take on Inditex and H&amp;M for leadership at the top of the global apparel rankings.On the profit side, while Fast Retailing has for long been a profit machine compared to its Japanese peers, it has always lagged companies like Inditex because of its insistence of maintaining store stock levels. It is now working to rationalise this policy with significant implications for future profitability.The following is an in-depth review of Uniqlo from a brand, merchandising and marketing perspective.

Due to uptrend violations for the Nasdaq 100, S&amp;P 500, and Russell 2000 we continue to believe near-term consolidation is likely -- potentially something similar to what the market experienced between June and early-July. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary &amp; Materials: Retailers, Footwear, Retailers, Teenagers, Metals, Steel, Integrated, Non-U.S., and Chemicals, Diversified.

Due to uptrend violations for the Nasdaq 100, S&amp;P 500, and Russell 2000 we continue to believe near-term consolidation is likely -- potentially something similar to what the market experienced between June and early-July. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary &amp; Materials: Retailers, Footwear, Retailers, Teenagers, Metals, Steel, Integrated, Non-U.S., and Chemicals, Diversified.

U. S. Equity Strategy: Bull-Bear Battle Continues

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Surveying the retail landscape over the weekend…we think we could see big reversals in the coming weeks for retail stocks.<div class="content-highlight">Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</div>

Surveying the retail landscape over the weekend…we think we could see big reversals in the coming weeks for retail stocks.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

TMT Weekly:  3 Things that Stood Out (In Retail) The Week of 5/​15/​2020

United States

The Gap, Inc., is an international specialty retailer operating retail and outlet stores.  The Company sells casual apparel, accessories and personal care products for men, women, and children. The Gap operates stores in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Ireland, and Japan.

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Gap Inc/The (GPS US)

U.S. Equity Strategy: Downgrading Consumer Staples To Underweight; Watching 10-Year Yield Closely

Market dynamics remain largely bullish and we continue to see signs of improving risk appetites. As a result, we are on the verge of shifting to an...

Vermilion Research

Upgrading U.S. Staples To Market Weight

Despite mild deterioration in market dynamics, there are plenty of indicators that remain positive and our outlook remains constructive for the...

Vermilion Research

Uniqlo: The Toyota of Clothing

Uniqlo's branding is at last coming together outside Japan. For the first time, we finally believe Fast Retailing may be on track for global...

Michael Causton

U. S. Equity Strategy: Bull-Bear Battle Continues

Due to uptrend violations for the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, and Russell 2000 we continue to believe near-term consolidation is likely -- potentially...

Vermilion Research

TMT Weekly: 3 Things that Stood Out (In Retail) The Week of 5/15/2020

Surveying the retail landscape over the weekend…we think we could see big reversals in the coming weeks for retail stocks.Obex’s fundamental...

Aaron Gabin

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

U.S. Equity Strategy: Downgrading Consumer Staples To Underweight; Watching 10-Year Yield Closely

Market dynamics remain largely bullish and we continue to see signs of improving risk appetites. As a result, we are on the verge of shifting to an...

Vermilion Research

Upgrading U.S. Staples To Market Weight

Despite mild deterioration in market dynamics, there are plenty of indicators that remain positive and our outlook remains constructive for the...

Vermilion Research

Uniqlo: The Toyota of Clothing

Uniqlo's branding is at last coming together outside Japan. For the first time, we finally believe Fast Retailing may be on track for global...

Michael Causton

U. S. Equity Strategy: Bull-Bear Battle Continues

Due to uptrend violations for the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, and Russell 2000 we continue to believe near-term consolidation is likely -- potentially...

Vermilion Research

TMT Weekly: 3 Things that Stood Out (In Retail) The Week of 5/​15/​2020

Surveying the retail landscape over the weekend…we think we could see big reversals in the coming weeks for retail stocks.Obex’s fundamental...

Aaron Gabin

TMT Weekly: 3 Things that Stood Out (In Retail) The Week of 5/15/2020