External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Our BUY recommendation on GAIL with a target price of INR 145 is based on (1) an increase in gas transmission volume to 129mmscmd by FY25 on the back of an increase in domestic gas production, (2) completion of major pipelines in eastern and southern India, and (3) expectation of improvement in earnings from the petchem segment</li><li>Q2FY24 reported EBITDA/PAT at INR 35/24bn, came in above our estimates, driven by an improvement in natural gas transmission volumes and higher marketing margins</li><li>Depreciation at INR 7.5bn (+21% YoY, +18% QoQ) came above expectation.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Our BUY recommendation on GAIL with a target price of INR 145 is based on (1) an increase in gas transmission volume to 129mmscmd by FY25 on the back of an increase in domestic gas production, (2) completion of major pipelines in eastern and southern India, and (3) expectation of improvement in earnings from the petchem segmentQ2FY24 reported EBITDA/PAT at INR 35/24bn, came in above our estimates, driven by an improvement in natural gas transmission volumes and higher marketing marginsDepreciation at INR 7.5bn (+21% YoY, +18% QoQ) came above expectation.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Gail (Q2FY24): Transmission and Trading Segments Outperform. Maintain BUY

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index is a fundamentally weighted index that measures the performance of high dividend yield stocks within emerging markets.</li>
<li>The October rebalance will result in a one-way turnover of ~37% and in a one-way trade of US$926m. There are 92 stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade.</li>
<li>In Asia, the largest buy flows are expected on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a> and the largest sell flows on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/posco-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:208:1" rel="noopener">POSCO Holdings (005490 KS)</a>. </li>
</ul>


The WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index is a fundamentally weighted index that measures the performance of high dividend yield stocks within emerging markets.
The October rebalance will result in a one-way turnover of ~37% and in a one-way trade of US$926m. There are 92 stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade.
In Asia, the largest buy flows are expected on Astra International (ASII IJ) and the largest sell flows on POSCO Holdings (005490 KS). 


WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index Rebalance: Huge Turnover & Trade Next Week

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our prior EM Strategy (August 7, 2023) we discussed how MSCI EM (EEM-US) was near major 1+ year resistance at $42.</li>
<li>After being unable to break out, EEM-US consolidation has continued, and is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023.</li>
<li>As long as EEM-US is above $37, we are buyers on this pullback.</li>
</ul>


In our prior EM Strategy (August 7, 2023) we discussed how MSCI EM (EEM-US) was near major 1+ year resistance at $42.
After being unable to break out, EEM-US consolidation has continued, and is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023.
As long as EEM-US is above $37, we are buyers on this pullback.


MSCI EM Index Approaching 10.5-Month Support; Remain Overweight India; Many EM Buys

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Last week (Aug. 18) we discussed the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY testing respective resistance (4.3%-4.35% and $103.50-$103.70).</li>
<li>As long as no decisive breakouts in the 10-year yield or DXY, we were buyers on the pullback to $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).</li>
<li>Outside of our overweight countries (Japan, India, Taiwan, Greece), defensive Sectors continue to lag. We highlight buys in Technology, Services, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Materials/Energy, and Financials.</li>
</ul>


Last week (Aug. 18) we discussed the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY testing respective resistance (4.3%-4.35% and $103.50-$103.70).
As long as no decisive breakouts in the 10-year yield or DXY, we were buyers on the pullback to $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).
Outside of our overweight countries (Japan, India, Taiwan, Greece), defensive Sectors continue to lag. We highlight buys in Technology, Services, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Materials/Energy, and Financials.


Key Supports Holding Strong; 10-Year Treasury Yield Below Key Resistance; Buys in Non-Defensives

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>GAIL: Our BUY recommendation on GAIL with a target price of INR 137 is based on (1) an increase in gas transmission volume to 127mmscmd by FY25 on the back of an increase in domestic gas production, (2) completion of major pipelines in eastern and southern India, and (3) expectation of improvement in earnings from the petchem segment</li><li>Q1FY24 reported EBITDA/PAT at INR 24/14bn, came in below our estimates, impacted by weak earnings from the LPG and Liquid Hydro Carbon (LHC) segment</li><li>However, sharp pick-up in natural gas transmission volumes, higher tariff and higher gas marketing volumes supported earnings</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

GAIL: Our BUY recommendation on GAIL with a target price of INR 137 is based on (1) an increase in gas transmission volume to 127mmscmd by FY25 on the back of an increase in domestic gas production, (2) completion of major pipelines in eastern and southern India, and (3) expectation of improvement in earnings from the petchem segmentQ1FY24 reported EBITDA/PAT at INR 24/14bn, came in below our estimates, impacted by weak earnings from the LPG and Liquid Hydro Carbon (LHC) segmentHowever, sharp pick-up in natural gas transmission volumes, higher tariff and higher gas marketing volumes supported earningsContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: GAIL, Oberoi Realty, Petronet LNG, Navin Fluorine International

India

GAIL India Limited processes and distributes natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas. The Company is a Government of India undertaking.

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Gail India (GAIL IN)

Gail (Q2FY24): Transmission and Trading Segments Outperform. Maintain BUY

Q2FY24 reported EBITDA/PAT at INR 35/24bn, came in above our estimates, driven by an improvement in natural gas transmission volumes and higher...

HDFC Securities

WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index Rebalance: Huge Turnover & Trade Next Week

There are 265 adds/215 deletes for the WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index. One-way turnover is 37% resulting in a one-way trade of...

Brian Freitas

MSCI EM Index Approaching 10.5-Month Support; Remain Overweight India; Many EM Buys

$EEM is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023. As long as $EEM is...

Vermilion Research

Key Supports Holding Strong; 10-Year Treasury Yield Below Key Resistance; Buys in Non-Defensives

We remain constructive on global equities as long as $ACWI remains above $93 (1+ year base support). 10-year Treasury yield $TNX holding below 4.3...

Vermilion Research

HSIE Results Daily: GAIL, Oberoi Realty, Petronet LNG, Navin Fluorine International

Q1FY24 reported EBITDA/PAT at INR 24/14bn, came in below our estimates, impacted by weak earnings from the LPG and Liquid Hydro Carbon (LHC) segment

HDFC Securities

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