Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

Riedel Research

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In June the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator (CSI) increased to a level of 115.9, just below the threshold level of 116 indicating consumers are in a state of panic. We continue to highlight our view that China’s economy is much stronger than depressed levels of Consumer Sentiment would suggest. We believe the Chinese government is aware of its recent confidence destabilizing policy moves and is focused on avoiding such moves in the near future, allowing consumers to pull out of a prolonged period of panic. Data collection for the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Survey ended by the June 23rd Brexit referendum. While it is not yet clear what impact the Brexit will have on the CSI it has the potential to adversely change the global economic outlook and the outlook for China. Over the next few weeks we will be monitoring the spillover effects of the Brexit carefully.

In June the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator (CSI) increased to a level of 115.9, just below the threshold level of 116 indicating consumers are in a state of panic.  We continue to highlight our view that China’s economy is much stronger than depressed levels of Consumer Sentiment would suggest. We believe the Chinese government is aware of its recent confidence destabilizing policy moves and is focused on avoiding such moves in the near future, allowing consumers to pull out of a prolonged period of panic.  Data collection for the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Survey ended by the June 23rd Brexit referendum. While it is not yet clear what impact the Brexit will have on the CSI it has the potential to adversely change the global economic outlook and the outlook for China.  Over the next few weeks we will be monitoring the spillover effects of the Brexit carefully.

China Consumer Sentiment Rises in June as Panic Surrounding Slowing Economy Continues to Dissipate

Last week the immediate shock from the Brexit eased considerably. It has become clear that all the Brexit vote really did was guarantee a prolonged period of uncertainty. It has also become clear that it will take months to gauge the impact that this prolonged period of uncertainty will have on both the Eurozone and global economy.

Last week the immediate shock from the Brexit eased considerably. It has become clear that all the Brexit vote really did was guarantee a prolonged period of uncertainty. It has also become clear that it will take months to gauge the impact that this prolonged period of uncertainty will have on both the Eurozone and global economy.

What Investors Should Be Asking About A Brexit

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Coupang has been quite secretive regarding its China expansion plans. In the past several years, Coupang has shattered many records to become one of the fastest growing E-commerce company not just in Korea, but in the world. Coupang is the largest "start-up" in Korea in history. Ever since Softbank invested US$1 billion in Coupang in 2015, some of the key questions that have been raised include "Will Coupang focus its business in Korea only and what is its expansion plans in China?" Coupang has…

Coupang has been quite secretive regarding its China expansion plans. In the past several years, Coupang has shattered many records to become one of the fastest growing E-commerce company not just in Korea, but in the world. Coupang is the largest "start-up" in Korea in history. Ever since Softbank invested US$1 billion in Coupang in 2015, some of the key questions that have been raised include "Will Coupang focus its business in Korea only and what is its expansion plans in China?" Coupang has…

Following a ‘risk-on’ rally early in the early part of last week global stocks dropped going into Friday on concerns that a series of key events later this month may stress the global economy and financial markets.At the center of these concerns is the uncertainty surrounding the potential for the UK to exit the European Union (Brexit). On June 23rd voters will decide whether Britain will leave or remain in the European Union. Concerns over a possible Brexit surged on Friday following the release of a poll from the Independent showing increasing support for a Brexit, with 55% vote to ‘leave’ against a 45% vote to ‘remain’.Further fueling uncertainty is the US Feds upcoming FOMC meeting set to take place on June 15th. While the Fed is not expected to hike rates in June (the implied probability of a June rate hike is currently just 2%) , investors are very concerned that a surprise hike could trigger volatility across global financial markets.Our proprietary indicators continue to indicate the global economy is strong enough to withstand a potential shock stemming from a surprise rate hike in the US or a Brexit.

Following a ‘risk-on’ rally early in the early part of last week global stocks dropped going into Friday on concerns that a series of key events later this month may stress the global economy and financial markets.At the center of these concerns is the uncertainty surrounding the potential for the UK to exit the European Union (Brexit). On June 23rd voters will decide whether Britain will leave or remain in the European Union. Concerns over a possible Brexit surged on Friday following the release of a poll from the Independent showing increasing support for a Brexit, with 55% vote to ‘leave’ against a 45% vote to ‘remain’.Further fueling uncertainty is the US Feds upcoming FOMC meeting set to take place on June 15th. While the Fed is not expected to hike rates in June (the implied probability of a June rate hike is currently just 2%) , investors are very concerned that a surprise hike could trigger volatility across global financial markets.Our proprietary indicators continue to indicate the global economy is strong enough to withstand a potential shock stemming from a surprise rate hike in the US or a Brexit.

Anxiety Over Brexit Surges While Key Economic Data Continue to Improve

A surprisingly poor employment report in the US became the central focus among investors across the globe on Friday. In May the US added just 38,000 jobs, well under the expected 156,000.A poor jobs report has triggered widespread concerns that a weak external environment is starting to feed through to infect the US economy. These concerns reflect the risk of what we define as a ‘bad de-polarization’ playing out in the global economy.Currently the global economy is extremely polarized (there is a large divergence between the health of the worlds strongest and weakest economies). As the global economy de-polarizes the health of the weakest economies will rise to converge with that of the strongest economies (a good de-polarization) or vice versa.

A surprisingly poor employment report in the US became the central focus among investors across the globe on Friday. In May the US added just 38,000 jobs, well under the expected 156,000.A poor jobs report has triggered widespread concerns that a weak external environment is starting to feed through to infect the US economy. These concerns reflect the risk of what we define as a ‘bad de-polarization’ playing out in the global economy.Currently the global economy is extremely polarized (there is a large divergence between the health of the worlds strongest and weakest economies). As the global economy de-polarizes the health of the weakest economies will rise to converge with that of the strongest economies (a good de-polarization) or vice versa.

Bad Jobs Report Good For Some EMs, Great For Others

China

Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co Ltd, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes automobile glass, decorated glassware, and other industrial glassware. The Company also provides glass installation service. Fuyao Glass Industry Group markets its products internationally.

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Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK)

China Consumer Sentiment Rises in June as Panic Surrounding Slowing Economy Continues to Dissipate

In June the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator (CSI) increased to a level of 115.9, just below the threshold level of 116 indicating consumers...

David Riedel

What Investors Should Be Asking About A Brexit

Last week the immediate shock from the Brexit eased considerably. It has become clear that all the Brexit vote really did was guarantee a prolonged...

David Riedel

Is Coupang Ready to Expand in China?

Coupang has been quite secretive regarding its China expansion plans. In the past several years, Coupang has shattered many records to become one...

Douglas Kim

Anxiety Over Brexit Surges While Key Economic Data Continue to Improve

Following a ‘risk-on’ rally early in the early part of last week global stocks dropped going into Friday on concerns that a series of key events...

David Riedel

Bad Jobs Report Good For Some EMs, Great For Others

A surprisingly poor employment report in the US became the central focus among investors across the globe on Friday. In May the US added just...

David Riedel

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