Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Shinko Electric Industries / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>When this deal was announced, it was light. But the timing, JSR influence, large-ish float, ensured FUD would make this trade wide. It traded wider.</li>
<li>Nearly 7mos ago, Shinko had much-underperformed peer Ibiden, meaning downside gap risk from undisturbed was <em>negative</em> as spreads were wide. I reco'd a buy. Then 5mos ago, recommended taking profits.</li>
<li>Ibiden has now underperformed Shinko by 25+% in 2-plus weeks. GAP RISK is higher but this is a short-timer. HUGE yield to "expected" start date, so everyone assumes a delay. </li>
</ul>


When this deal was announced, it was light. But the timing, JSR influence, large-ish float, ensured FUD would make this trade wide. It traded wider.
Nearly 7mos ago, Shinko had much-underperformed peer Ibiden, meaning downside gap risk from undisturbed was negative as spreads were wide. I reco'd a buy. Then 5mos ago, recommended taking profits.
Ibiden has now underperformed Shinko by 25+% in 2-plus weeks. GAP RISK is higher but this is a short-timer. HUGE yield to "expected" start date, so everyone assumes a delay. 


Update: Shinko Electric (6967) Shorter-Dated and Break Risk Small but GAP RISK Now Much Higher

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>XPeng and Baidu leading China's autonomous driving technology advancements in 2023</li><li>Malaysia's semiconductor sector set for growth in 3Q24 with talent recruitment and AI integration</li><li>Singtel partners with SK Telecom for 6G and AI innovation, while automakers persist in V2X development efforts</li></ul>

XPeng and Baidu leading China's autonomous driving technology advancements in 2023Malaysia's semiconductor sector set for growth in 3Q24 with talent recruitment and AI integrationSingtel partners with SK Telecom for 6G and AI innovation, while automakers persist in V2X development efforts

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (19-Jul-2024): China's auto exports, 2023.

<ul>
<li>When this deal was announced, it was light. But the timing, JSR influence, large-ish float, ensured FUD would make this trade wide. It traded wider.</li>
<li>Nearly 6mos ago, Shinko had much-underperformed peer Ibiden, meaning downside gap risk from undisturbed was negative as spreads were wide. I reco'd a buy. Then 16+wks ago, recommended taking profits.</li>
<li>Shinko had outperformed Ibiden, gross spreads had narrowed 5+% on JSR approval. Gross spread is now 4.6% but time is shorter so annualised is 10+% even out to December launch.</li>
</ul>


When this deal was announced, it was light. But the timing, JSR influence, large-ish float, ensured FUD would make this trade wide. It traded wider.
Nearly 6mos ago, Shinko had much-underperformed peer Ibiden, meaning downside gap risk from undisturbed was negative as spreads were wide. I reco'd a buy. Then 16+wks ago, recommended taking profits.
Shinko had outperformed Ibiden, gross spreads had narrowed 5+% on JSR approval. Gross spread is now 4.6% but time is shorter so annualised is 10+% even out to December launch.


Shinko Electric (6967) - Break/Gap Risk Early July 2024 Update

<ul>
<li>When this deal was announced, it was light. But the timing, JSR influence, large-ish float, ensured FUD would make this trade wide. It traded wider.</li>
<li>Nearly 5mos ago, Shinko had much-underperformed peer Ibiden, meaning downside gap risk from undisturbed was negative as spreads were wide. I reco'd a buy. Then 12wks ago, recommended taking profits.</li>
<li>Shinko had outperformed Ibiden, gross spreads had narrowed 5+% on JSR approval. Spreads are now 2.6% wider than at narrowest. In May, gap risk narrowed as Shinko underperformed Ibiden.</li>
</ul>


When this deal was announced, it was light. But the timing, JSR influence, large-ish float, ensured FUD would make this trade wide. It traded wider.
Nearly 5mos ago, Shinko had much-underperformed peer Ibiden, meaning downside gap risk from undisturbed was negative as spreads were wide. I reco'd a buy. Then 12wks ago, recommended taking profits.
Shinko had outperformed Ibiden, gross spreads had narrowed 5+% on JSR approval. Spreads are now 2.6% wider than at narrowest. In May, gap risk narrowed as Shinko underperformed Ibiden.


Shinko Electric (6967) - Break/Gap Risk Early June 2024 Update

<ul>
<li>When this deal was announced, it was light. But the timing, JSR influence, large-ish float, ensured FUD would make this trade wide. It traded wider.</li>
<li>15wks ago, Shinko had much-underperformed peer Ibiden, meaning downside gap risk from undisturbed was negative as spreads were wide. I reco'd a buy. Then 8wks ago, recommended taking profits.</li>
<li>Shinko had outperformed Ibiden, gross spreads had narrowed 5+% on JSR approval. Spreads are now 3.6% wider than at narrowest, but gap risk has widened as Shinko outperforms, Ibiden.</li>
</ul>


When this deal was announced, it was light. But the timing, JSR influence, large-ish float, ensured FUD would make this trade wide. It traded wider.
15wks ago, Shinko had much-underperformed peer Ibiden, meaning downside gap risk from undisturbed was negative as spreads were wide. I reco'd a buy. Then 8wks ago, recommended taking profits.
Shinko had outperformed Ibiden, gross spreads had narrowed 5+% on JSR approval. Spreads are now 3.6% wider than at narrowest, but gap risk has widened as Shinko outperforms, Ibiden.


Shinko Electric (6967) - Break/Gap Risk Early May 2024 Update

Japan

Fujitsu Ltd manufactures semiconductor, computer, and communication equipment. The Company provides comprehensive information technology, network and telecommunication solutions, and Internet services.

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Fujitsu Ltd (6702 JP)

Update: Shinko Electric (6967) Shorter-Dated and Break Risk Small but GAP RISK Now Much Higher

In the recent market downturn, Ibiden has sharply underperformed Shinko Electric. There may be no new BREAK RISK but GAP RISK in case of break is...

Travis Lundy

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (19-Jul-2024): China's auto exports, 2023.

China advances in autonomous driving tech; Malaysia's semiconductor sector grows with AI; Taiwan backs AI supercomputers; Google Cloud Taiwan faces...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Shinko Electric (6967) - Break/Gap Risk Early July 2024 Update

Shinko Gap Risk is probably slightly higher than last month as gross arb return starts to drop as this deal becomes a short-timer (one hopes)....

Travis Lundy

Shinko Electric (6967) - Break/Gap Risk Early June 2024 Update

Ibiden outperformed Shinko quite sharply in the last few weeks bringing the Shinko/Ibiden ratio back below their forward EPS ratio. Gap Risk is...

Travis Lundy

Shinko Electric (6967) - Break/Gap Risk Early May 2024 Update

Time has passed, lifting annualised return to deal completion, but Shinko Electric has still larger gap risk as Ibiden's price/guidance has fallen...

Travis Lundy

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