Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>I kind of hate this, but I also can't ignore it. Apparently, an expensive media service Reporting on Deals or about the Market for Mergers, had an article today.</li>
<li>Bloomberg carried a small blurb saying there was "speculation on a tender offer.... according to traders". The stock is untraded, limit up.  </li>
<li>The most informative comment comes from Japanese stock market portal 'kabutan' which suggests "overseas media" thinks Sumitomo Corp will sell its shares. I look at the possibilities below.</li>
</ul>


I kind of hate this, but I also can't ignore it. Apparently, an expensive media service Reporting on Deals or about the Market for Mergers, had an article today.
Bloomberg carried a small blurb saying there was "speculation on a tender offer.... according to traders". The stock is untraded, limit up.  
The most informative comment comes from Japanese stock market portal 'kabutan' which suggests "overseas media" thinks Sumitomo Corp will sell its shares. I look at the possibilities below.


T-Gaia (3738 JP) - Possible Premium Takeout Story

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The long awaited lifting of restrictions on inbound tourists in October seems to have given new confidence to domestic tourists too.</li>
<li>Major airlines, hotels and railways are all reporting a significant uplift in bookings with several forecasting that figures will exceed 2019 by March next year.</li>
<li>Retailers have benefitted too, notably department stores and lifestyle retailers. Now all Japan needs is for Chinese tourists to be allowed out.</li>
</ul>


The long awaited lifting of restrictions on inbound tourists in October seems to have given new confidence to domestic tourists too.
Major airlines, hotels and railways are all reporting a significant uplift in bookings with several forecasting that figures will exceed 2019 by March next year.
Retailers have benefitted too, notably department stores and lifestyle retailers. Now all Japan needs is for Chinese tourists to be allowed out.


Japan's Retailers, Hotels, Carriers Rejoice: Domestic Tourism Surges and Inbound Traffic Rises

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/128/316/original/2020-04-17_05-50-08.png?1587070274" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="128316"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • @mirais_y_akai</div>CHANGE OF TACK - Many world leaders including President Trump, Boris Johnson and even Prime Minister Stefan Löfven of Sweden have seen surges in their approval ratings almost irrespective of their handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. Unfortunately, Prime Minister Abe has struggled, and his public support and approval ratings for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party are falling away.<ul>
<li>Abe has been derided for his two-mask policy, and the early recipients are claiming they are too small and shrink in when washed.</li>
<li>A PR video of the Prime Minister lounging at home with his dog was mocked, while the accompanying video of a singer was used without permission.</li>
<li>The declaration of a state of emergency in only seven prefectures has resulted in some internal migration which has spread the virus to other parts of Japan and, for example, pachinko addicts crossed from Tokyo into Chiba to play.</li>
<li>Lastly, the plan outlined in the COVID-19 supplementary budget to give needy households ¥300,000 has had to be withdrawn at the last minute in favour an immediate cash handout of ¥100,000 to all, irrespective of means or circumstance at a cost of ¥12 trillion.</li>
</ul>NATIONWIDE - Although both the number of confirmed cases and fatalities are not increasing exponentially and a lower than one week ago, Abe has decided to reclaim the initiative by announcing a nationwide state of emergency with effect from today to last until the end of the Golden Week holidays on 6th May. This period will cover ten working days. Each prefecture will determine the extent and implementation of restrictions on movement. <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/128/317/original/2020-04-16_19-53-56.png?1587072129" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="128317"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Apple/Japan Analytics</div>ROADMAPS - Apple's excellent mobility trend <a href="https://www.apple.com/covid19/mobility" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reports</a> provide are a useful tool in assessing the responses to COVID-19 and their potential impact on economies. We have focused on driving mobility as the better proxy for overall economic activity and smoothed the weekends by using a seven-day rolling average. Even within Asia, there apparent differences between Japan and Taiwan compared to South Korea, Hong Kong and Singapore. Within Europe, the Nordic countries have seen much lower reductions than Spain or Italy. Countries with the most moderate mobility reductions should see the least-damaging economic consequences and are less likely to experience a debilitating 'second-wave.PREVENTION STRATEGIES - An interesting recent non-peer reviewed <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.28.20036715v3" target="_blank" rel="noopener">paper</a> by German epidemiologist  Dr Knut Wittkowski suggests that while "lockdowns can be effective during the month following the peak incidence in infections.. earlier containment of low-risk people merely prolongs the time the virus needs to circulate until the incidence is high enough to initiate herd immunity. Later containment is not helpful unless to prevent a rebound if containment started too early." His modelling graphs three scenarios:-<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/128/318/original/2020-04-17_06-44-50.png?1587073534" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="128318"></figure>I: NO INTERVENTIONS = HERD IMMUNITY<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/128/319/original/2020-04-17_06-47-49.png?1587073689" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="128319"></figure>II: PHASED INTERVENTION = LOWER FATALITIES BUT LOWER IMMUNITY<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/128/320/original/2020-04-17_06-49-36.png?1587073790" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="128320"></figure>III: EARLY LOCKDOWN = GREATER ECONOMIC COLLATERAL DAMAGE &amp; HIGHER FATALITIES THAN CASE II + HERD IMMUNITY DELAYED BY NINE MONTHSDr Wittkowski concludes: "It is herd immunity that stops the spread of infectious disease, so, in general, one would want to let the epidemic initially run its natural course or even accelerate it...to build immunity as fast as possible. If the aim were to reduce the duration of the epidemic and its impact on the economy (and also increase the time until the next epidemic can spread), one would wait until the prevalence of infectious people reaches its peak - day 83 in the middle graph above." Japan may, more perhaps by accident than design, be following the II: Phased Intervention model above. By having avoided an early lockdown, the country may also be spared an economic catastrophe.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/128/321/original/2020-04-17_07-28-23.png?1587076129" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="128321"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/128/322/original/2020-04-17_07-29-01.png?1587076173" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="128322"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>BOJ SMALL CAP BOOSTER - The Bank of Japan added to its holdings of TOPIX ETFs again yesterday and was 5.42% of TOPIX Value Traded. Their interventions are supporting TOPIX Small, which is beginning to recovery in terms of the TOPIX Small/TOPIX ratio. In the DETAIL below, we shall review the results, revisions and initial forecast announcements made yesterday.  The positive/neutral/negative balance for the two results was 2:0:0; and for the 12 revisions/forecasts, the split was 3:1:8. Leisure business <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujita-kanko-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8847:1" rel="noopener">Fujita Kanko (9722 JP)</a> withdrew its forecast for this December year-end.

Source • @mirais_y_akaiCHANGE OF TACK - Many world leaders including President Trump, Boris Johnson and even Prime Minister Stefan Löfven of Sweden have seen surges in their approval ratings almost irrespective of their handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. Unfortunately, Prime Minister Abe has struggled, and his public support and approval ratings for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party are falling away.
Abe has been derided for his two-mask policy, and the early recipients are claiming they are too small and shrink in when washed.
A PR video of the Prime Minister lounging at home with his dog was mocked, while the accompanying video of a singer was used without permission.
The declaration of a state of emergency in only seven prefectures has resulted in some internal migration which has spread the virus to other parts of Japan and, for example, pachinko addicts crossed from Tokyo into Chiba to play.
Lastly, the plan outlined in the COVID-19 supplementary budget to give needy households ¥300,000 has had to be withdrawn at the last minute in favour an immediate cash handout of ¥100,000 to all, irrespective of means or circumstance at a cost of ¥12 trillion.
NATIONWIDE - Although both the number of confirmed cases and fatalities are not increasing exponentially and a lower than one week ago, Abe has decided to reclaim the initiative by announcing a nationwide state of emergency with effect from today to last until the end of the Golden Week holidays on 6th May. This period will cover ten working days. Each prefecture will determine the extent and implementation of restrictions on movement. Source • Apple/Japan AnalyticsROADMAPS - Apple's excellent mobility trend reports provide are a useful tool in assessing the responses to COVID-19 and their potential impact on economies. We have focused on driving mobility as the better proxy for overall economic activity and smoothed the weekends by using a seven-day rolling average. Even within Asia, there apparent differences between Japan and Taiwan compared to South Korea, Hong Kong and Singapore. Within Europe, the Nordic countries have seen much lower reductions than Spain or Italy. Countries with the most moderate mobility reductions should see the least-damaging economic consequences and are less likely to experience a debilitating 'second-wave.PREVENTION STRATEGIES - An interesting recent non-peer reviewed paper by German epidemiologist  Dr Knut Wittkowski suggests that while "lockdowns can be effective during the month following the peak incidence in infections.. earlier containment of low-risk people merely prolongs the time the virus needs to circulate until the incidence is high enough to initiate herd immunity. Later containment is not helpful unless to prevent a rebound if containment started too early." His modelling graphs three scenarios:-I: NO INTERVENTIONS = HERD IMMUNITYII: PHASED INTERVENTION = LOWER FATALITIES BUT LOWER IMMUNITYIII: EARLY LOCKDOWN = GREATER ECONOMIC COLLATERAL DAMAGE &amp; HIGHER FATALITIES THAN CASE II + HERD IMMUNITY DELAYED BY NINE MONTHSDr Wittkowski concludes: "It is herd immunity that stops the spread of infectious disease, so, in general, one would want to let the epidemic initially run its natural course or even accelerate it...to build immunity as fast as possible. If the aim were to reduce the duration of the epidemic and its impact on the economy (and also increase the time until the next epidemic can spread), one would wait until the prevalence of infectious people reaches its peak - day 83 in the middle graph above." Japan may, more perhaps by accident than design, be following the II: Phased Intervention model above. By having avoided an early lockdown, the country may also be spared an economic catastrophe.Source • Japan AnalyticsBOJ SMALL CAP BOOSTER - The Bank of Japan added to its holdings of TOPIX ETFs again yesterday and was 5.42% of TOPIX Value Traded. Their interventions are supporting TOPIX Small, which is beginning to recovery in terms of the TOPIX Small/TOPIX ratio. In the DETAIL below, we shall review the results, revisions and initial forecast announcements made yesterday.  The positive/neutral/negative balance for the two results was 2:0:0; and for the 12 revisions/forecasts, the split was 3:1:8. Leisure business Fujita Kanko (9722 JP) withdrew its forecast for this December year-end.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results 16th April - Roadmaps

Making sense of the Global Market, Euromonitor International Ltd.

Yu Mitsuhashi

Making sense of the Global Market

Euromonitor International Ltd.

We are a global market research company focused on industries, countries, economies and consumers worldwide. Our cross-country comparable research helps your organisation identify opportunities and develop growth strategies in countries and regions across the globe. With offices around the world, 1,200 analysts in 100 countries and market research on every key trend and driver, we give you powerful access to the real story behind consumer change.

<ul><li>Luxury hotels (5-star plus) posts 5% current value growth in 2017, to reach JPY124.4 billion</li><li>Demand from the increasing number of foreign tourists leads to the rapid increase of luxury hotels (5-star plus)</li><li>International luxury hotel brands continue to lead luxury hotels (5-star plus) in 2016</li><li>Luxury hotels (5-star plus) to record a value CAGR of 7% at constant 2017 prices in the forecast period, to reach JPY172.7 billion in 2022</li></ul>

Luxury hotels (5-star plus) posts 5% current value growth in 2017, to reach JPY124.4 billionDemand from the increasing number of foreign tourists leads to the rapid increase of luxury hotels (5-star plus)International luxury hotel brands continue to lead luxury hotels (5-star plus) in 2016Luxury hotels (5-star plus) to record a value CAGR of 7% at constant 2017 prices in the forecast period, to reach JPY172.7 billion in 2022

Sector Capsule: Luxury Hotels (5-Star Plus) In Japan

Japan

FUJITA KANKO INC. operates hotels, restaurants, and resort facilities such as spas in Japan, mainly Kanto areas. The Company's hotels include business type hotel, Washington Hotel and Hotel Gracery. Also Fujita operates luxury hotels,  Hotel Chinzanso Tokyo and resort hotels, Hakone Hotel Kowaki-en.

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Fujita Kanko (9722 JP)

T-Gaia (3738 JP) - Possible Premium Takeout Story

T-Gaia has settled higher and is now trading down at month-end. A split price takeover would result in a minority price well higher than here. A...

Travis Lundy

Japan's Retailers, Hotels, Carriers Rejoice: Domestic Tourism Surges and Inbound Traffic Rises

Tourism is back in Japan, both domestic and inbound. We outline some of the key beneficiaries and expectations for a return to 2019 levels by next...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results 16th April - Roadmaps

CHANGE OF TACK - Many world leaders including President Trump, Boris Johnson and even Prime Minister Stefan Löfven of Sweden have seen surges in...

Campbell Gunn

Sector Capsule: Luxury Hotels (5-Star Plus) In Japan

Luxury hotels (5-star plus) posts 5% current value growth in 2017, to reach JPY124.4 billion Demand from the increasing number of foreign tourists...

Euromonitor International Ltd.

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