Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/owari-precise-products" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7242:1" rel="noopener">Owari Precise Products (7249 JP)</a> known as <em>Owari Seiki</em> in Japanese makes precision-forged metal parts for the automotive (synchronizer rings for transmissions), aircraft (fasteners), and bicycle (cranks, etc) manufacturing industries. </p><p>The largest corporate shareholders are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-metals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8561:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Metals (5486 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aisin-seiki-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11809:1" rel="noopener">Aisin Seiki (7259 JP)</a>, and there are several financial crossholders. </p><p>Today it was announced that a fund called Rising Japan Equity Fund 2 would launch a takeover of the company. RJE describes itself as having been founded in 2010 as "5 core members" who have markets experience along with SMBC and Mitsui Sumitomo Trust. </p><p><strong>So... the company which is owned by cross-holders to the level of 57-60% is selling itself to a fund sponsored by one of those cross-holders for.... checks notes... </strong></p><h3>...0.34x Book Value Per Share and 1.9x 5yr EBITDA?</h3><h3> </h3><p>And if you take out the securities and the net receivables (67 days of A/R, 30 days of A/P), it is 0.3x 5yr average EBITDA. </p><p>And the company appears to have net surplus assets connected to its pension benefit obligations which would take that to below zero. And that does not count the fact that it has another 75% of its market cap in &lt;3 months of inventory, where near 40% of sales goes to relatively large and stable customers like Aishin AW, Toyota, and Mazda) on long-term supply contracts. </p><h3>So the purchase price is below net cash, securities, and high-quality receivables. </h3><p></p><p>This is going too cheap. </p><p>And there is probably not much you can do about it except complain.</p><p>Or launch a competing bid.</p><hr><p>Some corporate and financial crossholders should really be ashamed of themselves for allowing this to happen at this price. If a company needs cash, they can sell securities holdings, factor receivables, get some of their customers to pay more quickly, push back payables, sell and lease back real estate, etc. This is being done for virtually free, and the forecast the "fair" value is based on expects to make JPY 500mm a year of OP two years out. </p>

Owari Precise Products (7249 JP) known as Owari Seiki in Japanese makes precision-forged metal parts for the automotive (synchronizer rings for transmissions), aircraft (fasteners), and bicycle (cranks, etc) manufacturing industries. The largest corporate shareholders are Hitachi Metals (5486 JP), Toyota Motor (7203 JP), Aisin Seiki (7259 JP), and there are several financial crossholders. Today it was announced that a fund called Rising Japan Equity Fund 2 would launch a takeover of the company. RJE describes itself as having been founded in 2010 as "5 core members" who have markets experience along with SMBC and Mitsui Sumitomo Trust. So... the company which is owned by cross-holders to the level of 57-60% is selling itself to a fund sponsored by one of those cross-holders for.... checks notes... ...0.34x Book Value Per Share and 1.9x 5yr EBITDA? And if you take out the securities and the net receivables (67 days of A/R, 30 days of A/P), it is 0.3x 5yr average EBITDA. And the company appears to have net surplus assets connected to its pension benefit obligations which would take that to below zero. And that does not count the fact that it has another 75% of its market cap in &lt;3 months of inventory, where near 40% of sales goes to relatively large and stable customers like Aishin AW, Toyota, and Mazda) on long-term supply contracts. So the purchase price is below net cash, securities, and high-quality receivables. This is going too cheap. And there is probably not much you can do about it except complain.Or launch a competing bid.Some corporate and financial crossholders should really be ashamed of themselves for allowing this to happen at this price. If a company needs cash, they can sell securities holdings, factor receivables, get some of their customers to pay more quickly, push back payables, sell and lease back real estate, etc. This is being done for virtually free, and the forecast the "fair" value is based on expects to make JPY 500mm a year of OP two years out. 

Owari Precise Products - Another Tiny Cap Takeover at <0.5 Book

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/124/787/original/2020-03-26_05-50-57.png?1585169482" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="124787"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>EARLY WARNINGS</strong> - This Insight is the second is a series of posts that will provide a 'real-time' update of the damage to corporate Japan's revenues and profits from the unfolding Covid-19 recession. Tuesday saw twenty-one forecast revisions by twenty companies and one withdrawal of forecasts and dividend cancellation by noodle restaurant <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gourmet-kineya-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11937:1" rel="noopener">Gourmet Kineya (9850 JP)</a>. Jewellery retailer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/happiness-and-d-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1246:1" rel="noopener">Happiness and D (3174 JP)</a> also reported interim results. The most significant revision was from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tdk-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18847:1" rel="noopener">TDK (6762 JP)</a> shown above.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/124/792/original/File%202020-03-26%204%2009%2018.jpeg?1585171207" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="124792"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • covid19japan.com</div><p><strong>COVID-19</strong> - As we discussed in an earlier <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-market-update-hit-the-boj-bid-and-wait-for-the-absolute-value-opportunity" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:37670" rel="noopener">Insight</a>, Japan's 'softly-softly' approach to the virus was likely to be 'tested' as the country was being encouraged to operate as close to normal last weekend. Yesterday saw the largest jump in new cases in one day since the outbreak Japan - 97 and 2 more deaths bringing the totals to 1,299 confirmed cases and 44 deaths from 23,521 people tested. Tokyo is now the epicentre with 220 cases which has prompted Governor Koike to recommend that people work from home as much as possible and avoid leaving home at this weekend as well as eating and drinking in groups - so no <em>hanami</em> parties! Despite the Governor's preference for cancellation and her scathing comments about an event in Saitama last weekend, another K-1 event to be held at Korakuen will go ahead behind closed doors. The Olympic torch relays have been cancelled. It remains to be seen if these persuasive measures will slow the spread. <strong>The rational assumption would be that Tokyo is now on the same path as London and New York.</strong></p>

Source • Japan AnalyticsEARLY WARNINGS - This Insight is the second is a series of posts that will provide a 'real-time' update of the damage to corporate Japan's revenues and profits from the unfolding Covid-19 recession. Tuesday saw twenty-one forecast revisions by twenty companies and one withdrawal of forecasts and dividend cancellation by noodle restaurant Gourmet Kineya (9850 JP). Jewellery retailer Happiness and D (3174 JP) also reported interim results. The most significant revision was from TDK (6762 JP) shown above.Source • covid19japan.comCOVID-19 - As we discussed in an earlier Insight, Japan's 'softly-softly' approach to the virus was likely to be 'tested' as the country was being encouraged to operate as close to normal last weekend. Yesterday saw the largest jump in new cases in one day since the outbreak Japan - 97 and 2 more deaths bringing the totals to 1,299 confirmed cases and 44 deaths from 23,521 people tested. Tokyo is now the epicentre with 220 cases which has prompted Governor Koike to recommend that people work from home as much as possible and avoid leaving home at this weekend as well as eating and drinking in groups - so no hanami parties! Despite the Governor's preference for cancellation and her scathing comments about an event in Saitama last weekend, another K-1 event to be held at Korakuen will go ahead behind closed doors. The Olympic torch relays have been cancelled. It remains to be seen if these persuasive measures will slow the spread. The rational assumption would be that Tokyo is now on the same path as London and New York.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions Early Warning System (EWS) 25th March

Japan

FUJI OOZX INC. manufactures automobile engine parts such as valves, valve adjusters and rotators.  The Company has its subsidiaries in Korea, Taiwan, and the United States.

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Fuji Oozx Inc (7299 JP)

Owari Precise Products - Another Tiny Cap Takeover at <0.5 Book

A largely cross-held microcap gets a Tender Offer proposal at a 34% premium which takes the company out at 0.34x book, and 0.0-2.0x EV/EBITDA...

Travis Lundy

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions Early Warning System (EWS) 25th March

EARLY WARNINGS - This Insight is the second is a series of posts that will provide a 'real-time' update of the damage to corporate Japan's revenues...

Campbell Gunn

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