Analyst - Japan Autos, Hirakata Office

Noriaki Hirakata, CFA

Analyst - Japan Autos

Hirakata Office

Equity Bottom-Up

<h2>We were among other sell-side and buy-side analysts this week invited to the new Forester presentation</h2><p><br>Mr. Fume (PGM: Forrester Program General Manager) as the Head of a team of 11 senior engineers in charge of the Forester development explained the Forrester product concept and its unique selling points.<br><br></p><h2>The significance of the Forester</h2><p>It is the highest selling model in SUBARU`s line-up with Global retail volume having been close to 250K units in 2017. We feel that investors and sell-side…</p>

We were among other sell-side and buy-side analysts this week invited to the new Forester presentation Mr. Fume (PGM: Forrester Program General Manager) as the Head of a team of 11 senior engineers in charge of the Forester development explained the Forrester product concept and its unique selling points.  The significance of the ForesterIt is the highest selling model in SUBARU`s line-up with Global retail volume having been close to 250K units in 2017. We feel that investors and sell-side…

New Forester Product Presentation: How Long Will the Limited Novelty Feel Fresh?

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>US SAAR for March 2018 came in at 17.48 mil vs. 16.8 million for March 2017 and 17.08 million for February 2018</h2><p>While the light truck segment rallied during last months as a result of increased incentives, it seems that incentives in passenger car segment have leveled out as most brands have accepted a volume decline in lieu of further raising incentives.</p><p>Asian brands saw the weakest sales growth momentum as a consequence of the sales slump in their core passenger car segment while Detroit brands…</p>

US SAAR for March 2018 came in at 17.48 mil vs. 16.8 million for March 2017 and 17.08 million for February 2018While the light truck segment rallied during last months as a result of increased incentives, it seems that incentives in passenger car segment have leveled out as most brands have accepted a volume decline in lieu of further raising incentives.Asian brands saw the weakest sales growth momentum as a consequence of the sales slump in their core passenger car segment while Detroit brands…

March 2018 US Automotive Sales: Recovery with the Truck Segment Rally

<p>The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has decided to ease current vehicle emissions standards (Green House Gas regulation). <br><br>The GHG regulation requires automakers to reduce emissions to the level of the average more than 50 miles/gallon by 2025 and we expect the overall profitability of the US automotive market to decline due to R&amp;D expense, more devices to be equipped to improve the fuel-efficiency and the mix migration to smaller vehicles across the segment.<br> <br>This is positive news across…</p>

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has decided to ease current vehicle emissions standards (Green House Gas regulation).   The GHG regulation requires automakers to reduce emissions to the level of the average more than 50 miles/gallon by 2025 and we expect the overall profitability of the US automotive market to decline due to R&amp;D expense, more devices to be equipped to improve the fuel-efficiency and the mix migration to smaller vehicles across the segment.   This is positive news across…

GHG Emissions Standards Will Be Eased in the US

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<p>Kyodo News reported today that Subaru may have falsified fuel economy data. If true, and if the "systematic" nature of the problem is widespread then this would be a significant negative for the stock. The company is investigating further and will delay the announcement of the results of its investigation into next month in order to gather more information. This news is clearly a downside risk and investors should treat this with caution as the implications could be quite damaging.</p><p>On top of…</p>

Kyodo News reported today that Subaru may have falsified fuel economy data. If true, and if the "systematic" nature of the problem is widespread then this would be a significant negative for the stock. The company is investigating further and will delay the announcement of the results of its investigation into next month in order to gather more information. This news is clearly a downside risk and investors should treat this with caution as the implications could be quite damaging.On top of…

Subaru: Fuel Economy Falsification Could Hurt but Falling Margins Will Hurt More

Global Automotive Stocks/EV Focus/Event Driven, SC Capital

SC Capital

Global Automotive Stocks/EV Focus/Event Driven

Over 22 years covering Japanese equities on both the sell side and the buy side. 

Bottom-up Japan Equities Research

<ul>
<li>Mazda's sales in North America appear to be on a tear, with January vehicle sales up +14% YoY and February up by another +11% YoY. Unfortunately, most of this growth is from a huge increase in fleet sales to rent-a-car agencies, which carry razor-thin margins. </li>
<li>Excluding these fleet sales in North America (which are expected to amount to 24% of total sales there during the January to March quarter), real sales are up only +5% YoY in January and down -1% in February.</li>
<li>What is of concern is that…</li>
</ul>


Mazda's sales in North America appear to be on a tear, with January vehicle sales up +14% YoY and February up by another +11% YoY. Unfortunately, most of this growth is from a huge increase in fleet sales to rent-a-car agencies, which carry razor-thin margins. 
Excluding these fleet sales in North America (which are expected to amount to 24% of total sales there during the January to March quarter), real sales are up only +5% YoY in January and down -1% in February.
What is of concern is that…


Japan

Subaru Corp manufactures passenger cars, buses, motor vehicle parts, and industrial machinery.  The Company also produces aircraft parts and supplies it to defense agency and Boeing Co.  The Company sells its passenger cars under the Subaru brand name.

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Subaru Corp (7270 JP)

New Forester Product Presentation: How Long Will the Limited Novelty Feel Fresh?

We were among other sell-side and buy-side analysts this week invited to the new Forester presentationMr. Fume (PGM: Forrester Program General...

Noriaki Hirakata, CFA

March 2018 US Automotive Sales: Recovery with the Truck Segment Rally

US SAAR for March 2018 came in at 17.48 mil vs. 16.8 million for March 2017 and 17.08 million for February 2018While the light truck segment...

Noriaki Hirakata, CFA

GHG Emissions Standards Will Be Eased in the US

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has decided to ease current vehicle emissions standards (Green House Gas regulation). The GHG regulation...

Noriaki Hirakata, CFA

Subaru: Fuel Economy Falsification Could Hurt but Falling Margins Will Hurt More

Kyodo News reported today that Subaru may have falsified fuel economy data. If true, and if the "systematic" nature of the problem is widespread...

Mio Kato

Mazda (7261) Update--On Fragile Ground

Mazda's sales in North America appear to be on a tear, with January vehicle sales up +14% YoY and February up by another +11% YoY. Unfortunately,...

SC Capital

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