HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fu-shou-yuan-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18168:1" rel="noopener">Fu Shou Yuan (1448 HK)'</a>s 2022 results were below our expectations. Affected by the 22Q4 pandemic, the performance recovery in 22H2 was lower than expected. </li>
<li>The high demand due to soaring death rate since 22Q4 would be reflected in 23H1 results. Together with low base last year, strong performance rebound in 23H1 is worth expecting.</li>
<li>The reason behind short-term trade and long-term hold is different. But considering the Company has no obvious flaws in its long logic, every pullback can be a good buying opportunity.</li>
</ul>



Fu Shou Yuan (1448 HK)'s 2022 results were below our expectations. Affected by the 22Q4 pandemic, the performance recovery in 22H2 was lower than expected. 
The high demand due to soaring death rate since 22Q4 would be reflected in 23H1 results. Together with low base last year, strong performance rebound in 23H1 is worth expecting.
The reason behind short-term trade and long-term hold is different. But considering the Company has no obvious flaws in its long logic, every pullback can be a good buying opportunity.


Fu Shou Yuan (1448.HK) - 2022 Results Missed Expectations, but the Outlook Remains Positive

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/invocare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9044:1" rel="noopener">Invocare Ltd (IVC AU)</a> has received an unsolicited, preliminary, non-binding indicative offer from TPG Global to acquire the company at A$12.65/share in cash.</li>
<li>TPG has also acquired 17.8% of the shares in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/invocare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9044:1" rel="noopener">Invocare Ltd (IVC AU)</a> via a combination of stock and derivatives.</li>
<li>With the company now in play, there could be competing offers. Already owning 17.8% of the company, TPG is now invested in ensuring they gain control.</li>
</ul>



Invocare Ltd (IVC AU) has received an unsolicited, preliminary, non-binding indicative offer from TPG Global to acquire the company at A$12.65/share in cash.
TPG has also acquired 17.8% of the shares in Invocare Ltd (IVC AU) via a combination of stock and derivatives.
With the company now in play, there could be competing offers. Already owning 17.8% of the company, TPG is now invested in ensuring they gain control.


InvoCare (IVC AU): TPG's A$12.65/Share NBIO

<ul>
<li>The second wave of pandemic is important logic to drive up Fu Shou Yuan’s share price, but the peak value/lethality could be lower than first wave, leading to lower-than-expected demand.</li>
<li>Whether the second wave can "arrive as expected" may not depend on pandemic itself, but on "whether to let it happen",especially when China's making every effort to promote economic recovery.</li>
<li>Besides solid fundamentals/optimistic performance, hot market sentiment is very essential if <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fu-shou-yuan-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18168:1" rel="noopener">Fu Shou Yuan (1448 HK)</a>’s share price is to outperform. Policy changes are also a potential source of unease.</li>
</ul>


The second wave of pandemic is important logic to drive up Fu Shou Yuan’s share price, but the peak value/lethality could be lower than first wave, leading to lower-than-expected demand.
Whether the second wave can "arrive as expected" may not depend on pandemic itself, but on "whether to let it happen",especially when China's making every effort to promote economic recovery.
Besides solid fundamentals/optimistic performance, hot market sentiment is very essential if Fu Shou Yuan (1448 HK)’s share price is to outperform. Policy changes are also a potential source of unease.


Fu Shou Yuan (1448.HK) - Some Points Worth the Attention

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>China's relaxation of COVID-19 control measures is much faster than expected. Due to rising infection rate and mortality rate, China would bear some pressure in the short term. </li>
<li>We analyzed the direct impacts due to COVID policy shift and related investment opportunities. The hardest time of three-year COVID-19 has passed.The playbook of the pandemic is about to end.</li>
<li>With the new leadership taking office, China will be more committed to economic growth after the Two Sessions. Starting from 2023H2, China could formulate independent financial/monetary policies. China will change. </li>
</ul>


China's relaxation of COVID-19 control measures is much faster than expected. Due to rising infection rate and mortality rate, China would bear some pressure in the short term. 
We analyzed the direct impacts due to COVID policy shift and related investment opportunities. The hardest time of three-year COVID-19 has passed.The playbook of the pandemic is about to end.
With the new leadership taking office, China will be more committed to economic growth after the Two Sessions. Starting from 2023H2, China could formulate independent financial/monetary policies. China will change. 


China Makes U-Turn on COVID Policy - Here Are the Direct Impacts and Investment Opportunities

<ul>
<li>China funeral industry has large growth potential.The total market scale would be about RMB400 billion if based on annual death toll of 10 million and per capita expenditure of RMB40,000.</li>
<li>Information asymmetry weakens the bargaining power of buyers. Administrative barriers raise the threshold of market access and weaken competition. So, related companies usually have high profitability and return on capital.</li>
<li>Changes in population structure would have a negative impact on most consumer goods, but demand of funeral industry would continue to rise. Investors would have both alpha and beta superposition.</li>
</ul>


China funeral industry has large growth potential.The total market scale would be about RMB400 billion if based on annual death toll of 10 million and per capita expenditure of RMB40,000.
Information asymmetry weakens the bargaining power of buyers. Administrative barriers raise the threshold of market access and weaken competition. So, related companies usually have high profitability and return on capital.
Changes in population structure would have a negative impact on most consumer goods, but demand of funeral industry would continue to rise. Investors would have both alpha and beta superposition.


China Funeral Industry - Investment Opportunity with Both Alpha and Beta Superposition

China

China Education Group Holdings Limited offers educational services. The Company provides private universities operating services, education training services, and other services. China Education Group Holdings offers services in Hong Kong.

East Buy Holding Limited operates livestreaming platform businesses. The Company provides private label products including agricultural products, food, books, and household goods. East Buy Holding also conducts college education businesses.

Xiamen Unigroup Xue Co., Ltd. offers various educational services. The Company provides after-school tutoring and education consulting. Unigroup Xue also participates in real estate development and investment activities.

China Chunlai Education Group Co., Ltd. provides educational services. The Company offers private higher education services and other services. China Chunlai Education Group provides services in China.

China East Education Holdings Limited provides vocational training educational services. The Company offers culinary education, internet technology education, automotive education, and other services. China East Education Holdings provides services in China.

Zhejiang Yasha Decoration Company Ltd. provides decorating services for large-scale infrastructure, high-end luxury hotel and luxury residential property.

Shanghai Xin Nanyang Co., Ltd., through its subsidiaries, manufactures communication products and industrial equipment, develops cable TV network, security trading, and communication systems, provides network integration, education, and precision processing services.

China Kepei Education Group Limited provides educational services. The Company offers high-quality profession-oriented education services and other services. China Kepei Education Group provides services in China.

China YuHua Education operates private education from kindergarten to university in China.

JH Educational Technology Inc. provides education services. The Company offers higher education, secondary education, and other services. JH Educational Technology provides services in China.

InvoCare Limited owns and operates funeral homes, cemeteries and crematoriums in Australia. The Company's activities include the provision of funerals, burials and cremations through it's funeral home brands including Blackwell, Guardian, George Hartnett, Le Pine, Purslowe, Simplicity Funerals and White Lady Funerals.

Perdoceo Education Corporation provides educational services. The Company offers a variety of bachelor's, associate, and non-degree programs, with a core curricula of information technologies, visual communication and design technologies, business studies, and culinary arts. Perdoceo Education operates in the United States.

Universal Technical Institute Inc., through its Universal Technical Institute (UTI) campuses, provides technical education training. The Schools, through its UTI campuses, offers automotive, collision repair and refinishing, and diesel training. UTI also offers training in motorcycle, marine, and personal watercraft through its Motorcycle and Marine Mechanics Institutes(MMI).

Universal Technical Institute, Inc (UTI US)

SISB operates a premium K-12 international school in Thailand, adopted Singapore, UK and IBDP curriculum as a blended student pathway in schools. SISB was established in 2001 with the school license under the Private School Act. Currently, there are 6 international schools with over 4,000 students.

G8 Education Limited provides community-focused child care for families to foster their child's development.  The Company also conducts a range of child care services that includes child care centers acquisition, child care centers management, and industry-related project management, services and consultancy.

Lung Yen Life Service Corp operates a cemetery and offers funeral and disposition services.

AcadeMedia AB provides educational services. The Company offers pre-school, elementary, secondary, vocational, adult education, comprehensive lesson plans, skills training, and professional rehabilitation services. AcadeMedia operates throughout Sweden.

Laureate Education, Inc. provides educational services. The University offers undergraduate and doctoral degrees in business and management, medical and health sciences, engineering, information technology, architecture, education, law, communications, and hospitality management. Laureate Education operates worldwide.

Propel Funeral Partners Limited provides funeral services. The Company owns and operates funeral homes, cemeteries, crematoria, and related assets, as well as offers funeral, cremation, burial, and mortuary services. Propel Funeral Partners serves individuals and families in Australia and New Zealand.

Perfect Medical Health Management (previously Perfect Shape Medical Limited) offers slimming and beauty treatments. The Company provides fat softens and dissolves services, laser freckle services, and other services. Perfect Shape Medical offers services in China.

Fu Shou Yuan International Group, Ltd. is a death care service provider in China.  The Company operates cemeteries and funeral facilities.

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Fu Shou Yuan (1448 HK)