Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Should the nominated directors, to be voted on by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eoflow-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36100:1" rel="noopener">EOFlow (294090 KS)</a>'s shareholders at the November EGM, include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medtronic-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14982:1" rel="noopener">Medtronic Plc (MDT US)</a> executives, then game on.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> STILL has a Nikkei 225 problem, which means it probably has to underperform Nikkei 225 slightly between now and the Base Date (31 July 2024).</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jmdc-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28673:1" rel="noopener">JMDC (4483 JP)</a> has been one of the more annoying partial tenders out there. Even post-facto, it is tough to know what the disposition was. This is extraordinarily vexing.</li>
</ul>


Should the nominated directors, to be voted on by EOFlow (294090 KS)'s shareholders at the November EGM, include Medtronic Plc (MDT US) executives, then game on.

Fast Retailing (9983 JP) STILL has a Nikkei 225 problem, which means it probably has to underperform Nikkei 225 slightly between now and the Base Date (31 July 2024).

JMDC (4483 JP) has been one of the more annoying partial tenders out there. Even post-facto, it is tough to know what the disposition was. This is extraordinarily vexing.


Last Week In Event SPACE: EOFlow, Fast Retailing, JMDC, Origin Energy

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>CMB and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/frontline-ltd-bermuda-95b052f6-1b1b-4c75-87d8-8286563cb605" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15531:1" rel="noopener">Frontline Ltd (FRO US)</a> smoke the peace pipe: CMB will buy Frontline out of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/euronav-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21077:1" rel="noopener">Euronav NV (EURN US)</a> at $18.43/share (25% premium) and agree to Euronav selling 24 VLCCs to FRO.</li>
<li>After an EGM gives the green light, CMB will launch a mandatory $18.43/share cash offer for Euronav. The three-way transaction is fairly priced (1.0x P/NAV) for all players, including the Euronav minorities.</li>
<li>There shouldn't be any antitrust issues. Spread is 4.02%/7.66% (gross/annualised assuming settlement by 30 April 2024). Recommendation is long and tender (there won't be any squeeze-out).</li>
</ul>


CMB and Frontline Ltd (FRO US) smoke the peace pipe: CMB will buy Frontline out of Euronav NV (EURN US) at $18.43/share (25% premium) and agree to Euronav selling 24 VLCCs to FRO.
After an EGM gives the green light, CMB will launch a mandatory $18.43/share cash offer for Euronav. The three-way transaction is fairly priced (1.0x P/NAV) for all players, including the Euronav minorities.
There shouldn't be any antitrust issues. Spread is 4.02%/7.66% (gross/annualised assuming settlement by 30 April 2024). Recommendation is long and tender (there won't be any squeeze-out).


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>As discussed in last week's Compass (9/26/23), we continue to believe the odds of a deeper pullback to SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased </li>
<li>Our reasoning continues to be due to the major breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields (10- and 30-year), coupled with a handful of Sectors/indexes breaking below supports.</li>
<li>We are also monitoring 1-year uptrends on the S&amp;P 500 and Russell 2000 (IWM), currently at 4240 and $173. Flirting with breakdowns below these levels today. Buys in retail/energy shippers</li>
</ul>


As discussed in last week's Compass (9/26/23), we continue to believe the odds of a deeper pullback to SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased 
Our reasoning continues to be due to the major breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields (10- and 30-year), coupled with a handful of Sectors/indexes breaking below supports.
We are also monitoring 1-year uptrends on the S&amp;P 500 and Russell 2000 (IWM), currently at 4240 and $173. Flirting with breakdowns below these levels today. Buys in retail/energy shippers


S&P 500 and Russell 2000 Testing 1-Year Uptrends; "Magnificent Seven" Supports to Watch

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Key support levels on global equity indexes (EURO STOXX 50, $ACWX, $EFA) are beginning to break as the U.S. dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield break above $105.70 and 4.35%.</li>
<li>This significantly increases the odds of a break below major $92-$93 support on $ACWI, and we would shift to a more cautious outlook only on a break below $92.</li>
<li>We shifted to overweight value within non-U.S. equities last week, and we are now also shifting to overweight small-caps within non-U.S. equities as well. Buys in Transportation, Communications, and HealthCare</li>
</ul>


Key support levels on global equity indexes (EURO STOXX 50, $ACWX, $EFA) are beginning to break as the U.S. dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield break above $105.70 and 4.35%.
This significantly increases the odds of a break below major $92-$93 support on $ACWI, and we would shift to a more cautious outlook only on a break below $92.
We shifted to overweight value within non-U.S. equities last week, and we are now also shifting to overweight small-caps within non-U.S. equities as well. Buys in Transportation, Communications, and HealthCare


Supports Starting to Break; Upgrading Non-U.S. Small-Caps to Overweight; Transports/Comm/HC Buys

<ul>
<li>Support levels discussed in our 8/8/23 Compass broke, leading to a change in character (from buy the dup to sell the rip) and a deeper pullback.</li>
<li>Supports we were watching included the 50-day MA and 4460-4475 on the S&amp;P 500, $371.50 on $QQQ, and $190-193 on the $IWM; these are now resistance moving forward</li>
<li>Longer-Term support on the S&amp;P 500 is at 4300-4325 (nearly hit on Friday) and 4200, and we will remain constructive as long as these supports hold.</li>
</ul>


Support levels discussed in our 8/8/23 Compass broke, leading to a change in character (from buy the dup to sell the rip) and a deeper pullback.
Supports we were watching included the 50-day MA and 4460-4475 on the S&amp;P 500, $371.50 on $QQQ, and $190-193 on the $IWM; these are now resistance moving forward
Longer-Term support on the S&amp;P 500 is at 4300-4325 (nearly hit on Friday) and 4200, and we will remain constructive as long as these supports hold.


Pause Continues But Oversold Bounce Likely; Buys in Energy, Construction/Engineering, Enrgy Shippers

Norway

Frontline Ltd. owns a fleet of very large crude carriers and tankers that transport crude oil and oil products between ports. The Company's vessels are managed by ship management companies. Frontline conducts activities worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Frontline Ltd/Bermuda (FRO NO)

Last Week In Event SPACE: EOFlow, Fast Retailing, JMDC, Origin Energy

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

CMB/Euronav: Mandatory Offer

After an EGM gives the green light, CMB will launch a mandatory $18.43/share cash offer for Euronav. The three-way transaction is fairly priced for...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

S&P 500 and Russell 2000 Testing 1-Year Uptrends; "Magnificent Seven" Supports to Watch

As discussed last week, we continue to believe the odds of a deeper pullback to $SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased following major...

Vermilion Research

Supports Starting to Break; Upgrading Non-U.S. Small-Caps to Overweight; Transports/Comm/HC Buys

Support levels on global indexes (EURO STOXX 50, $ACWX, $EFA) beginning to break as $DXY and 10-year Treasury yield $TNX break above $105.70 and...

Vermilion Research

Pause Continues But Oversold Bounce Likely; Buys in Energy, Construction/Engineering, Enrgy Shippers

$SPX broke support discussed in our Aug 8 Compass (50-day MA/4460), leading to change in character (now sell the rips) and deeper pullback. Expect...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)