Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>1H and 9MFY2019 earnings misses forced Calbee to revise its FY2019 estimates</li>
<li>Increased costs, slower progress in international markets and sluggish Frugra brand sales led the company to revise its FY2019 estimates</li>
<li>Nikkei POS data: average price per unit is on a decline</li>
<li>Frugra brand recovery comes at the expense of average price per unit</li>
<li>Potato chips and potato-based snacks: sluggish performance driven by declining average price per unit</li>
<li>Unable to pass the cost inflation to customers due to falling average price per unit</li>
<li>Mid-term plan: unconvinced by Calbee’s plan for its domestic business</li>
<li>Falling out of favor with the Buy Side</li>
<li>The status quo on which the investment thesis is based on is changing</li>
<li>Conclusion</li>
</ul>


1H and 9MFY2019 earnings misses forced Calbee to revise its FY2019 estimates
Increased costs, slower progress in international markets and sluggish Frugra brand sales led the company to revise its FY2019 estimates
Nikkei POS data: average price per unit is on a decline
Frugra brand recovery comes at the expense of average price per unit
Potato chips and potato-based snacks: sluggish performance driven by declining average price per unit
Unable to pass the cost inflation to customers due to falling average price per unit
Mid-term plan: unconvinced by Calbee’s plan for its domestic business
Falling out of favor with the Buy Side
The status quo on which the investment thesis is based on is changing
Conclusion


Calbee Inc: Falling Average Price Per Unit Causes Concern Among Investors

Japan

Frente Co, Ltd. is the holding company for a group of companies producing confectioneries. The Company also provides consulting services.

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Frente Co Ltd (2226 JP)

Calbee Inc: Falling Average Price Per Unit Causes Concern Among Investors

1H and 9MFY2019 earnings misses forced Calbee to revise its FY2019 estimates Increased costs, slower progress in international markets and...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

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