Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to see more and more global indexes and Sectors breaking out to new highs. This is classic bull market behavior. The latest breakouts: Israel, Germany, and Sweden</li>
<li>Our bullish outlook (since early November 2023) on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities.</li>
<li>We continue to get more evidence suggesting the US Dollar (DXY) is rolling over, and quite likely that global sovereign 10-year yields are rolling over as well. Risk-on.</li>
</ul>


We continue to see more and more global indexes and Sectors breaking out to new highs. This is classic bull market behavior. The latest breakouts: Israel, Germany, and Sweden
Our bullish outlook (since early November 2023) on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities.
We continue to get more evidence suggesting the US Dollar (DXY) is rolling over, and quite likely that global sovereign 10-year yields are rolling over as well. Risk-on.


Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; More Global Breakouts. Buys in Discretionary, Tech

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equities under pressure; we discussed in our August 3,2023 Int'l Compass how it could be the start of a ~15% pullback in $ACWI, which would put it at $84-$85.</li>
<li>We also discussed how it is possible that this is a normal 3%-6% pullback to the major $93 support level (which it tested today).</li>
<li>If the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY remain below their respective resistance levels, we remain buyers on this pullback to $93 on ACWI-US.</li>
</ul>


Global equities under pressure; we discussed in our August 3,2023 Int'l Compass how it could be the start of a ~15% pullback in $ACWI, which would put it at $84-$85.
We also discussed how it is possible that this is a normal 3%-6% pullback to the major $93 support level (which it tested today).
If the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY remain below their respective resistance levels, we remain buyers on this pullback to $93 on ACWI-US.


10-Yr Treasury Yield and DXY at Key Inflection Points; $ACWI Testing $93; Energy/HC/Tech/CD Buys

Broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM) were able to shrug off recent news of a more contagious Covid variant that popped-up in the UK. Additionally, Covid fears have done nothing to derail ongoing positive market dynamics. As long as support levels hold and market dynamics remain positive, our outlook remains bullish and we continue to view any weakness as a buying opportunity. Actionable Themes in today's report: Services, Technology, Manufacturing, and Materials.

Broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM) were able to shrug off recent news of a more contagious Covid variant that popped-up in the UK. Additionally, Covid fears have done nothing to derail ongoing positive market dynamics. As long as support levels hold and market dynamics remain positive, our outlook remains bullish and we continue to view any weakness as a buying opportunity. Actionable Themes in today's report: Services, Technology, Manufacturing, and Materials.

Global Equity Strategy: Support Levels Holding; Bullish Outlook Intact

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Rong Viet Securities

Rong Viet Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Equity Bottom-Up

We remain optimistic on the stable growth achieved by FPT’s two core businesses, Technology and Telecom. The large cash flow from the divestments have make ways for aggressive capex to develop its telecom service quality and to improve its software engineering capacity. We maintain our optimistic view on FPT’s outsourcing business growth thanks to the abundant new jobs from Japan and other Asia Pacific markets. We also expect that its telecom’s profitability will rise in the long-term owing to…

We remain optimistic on the stable growth achieved by FPT’s two core businesses, Technology and Telecom. The large cash flow from the divestments have make ways for aggressive capex to develop its telecom service quality and to improve its software engineering capacity. We maintain our optimistic view on FPT’s outsourcing business growth thanks to the abundant new jobs from Japan and other Asia Pacific markets. We also expect that its telecom’s profitability will rise in the long-term owing to…

FPT - Steady Core Operations but Underestimated Financials

FPT Retail (FRT) is the second largest mobile phone retailer in Vietnam, after MWG. Its smaller size will allow FRT to expand, although the smartphone market is gradually becoming saturated. Additionally, we believe that F.Friends and Subsidy can make a difference and will partly help FRT maintain its growth for the next two years. The Long Chau pharmacy chain is promising. However, in order to truly become the driving force of FRT, Long Chau needs to succeed on a large scale, not only in Ho Chi Minh City. This is a difficult task, especially since the current environment is not really ideal for the development of pharmacy chains While the outlook for the mobile phone business does not seem too attractive, FRT’s stock price is now at a level that is within a realistic trading range. After a 25% drop from its peak, the stock is not too expensive. Using a “sum of the parts” valuation method, we estimate the combined value of FPT Shop and F.Studio at about VND 75,500/share, and the Long Chau drugstore chain at VND 8,500/share. Adding a cash dividend of VND 2,000, the potential gain is 17%, enough for an ACCUMULATE recommendation on the stock.

FPT Retail (FRT) is the second largest mobile phone retailer in Vietnam, after MWG. Its smaller size will allow FRT to expand, although the smartphone market is gradually becoming saturated. Additionally, we believe that F.Friends and Subsidy can make a difference and will partly help FRT maintain its growth for the next two years. The Long Chau pharmacy chain is promising. However, in order to truly become the driving force of FRT, Long Chau needs to succeed on a large scale, not only in Ho Chi Minh City. This is a difficult task, especially since the current environment is not really ideal for the development of pharmacy chains While the outlook for the mobile phone business does not seem too attractive, FRT’s stock price is now at a level that is within a realistic trading range. After a 25% drop from its peak, the stock is not too expensive. Using a “sum of the parts” valuation method, we estimate the combined value of FPT Shop and F.Studio at about VND 75,500/share, and the Long Chau drugstore chain at VND 8,500/share. Adding a cash dividend of VND 2,000, the potential gain is 17%, enough for an ACCUMULATE recommendation on the stock.

Vietnam

CMC Corporation manufactures computers.  The Company produces desktop and laptop computers and servers.  CMC also offers systems integration services.

Electronics Communications Technology Investment Development Joint Stock Company provides software and system integration products for telecommunications service providers, and solutions and engineering services for telecommunications and security fields. The company offers ITV products, including video conferencing and video on demand solutions; call center, content, and monitoring services; mobile VAS, gateway, and mobile 3G solutions; informatics applications; and electronic and automation solutions, as well as transmission and access network solutions. It also provides advisory, administration and direct assessment, system integration, and support services. In addition, the company offers telecommunication solutions, such as datacenter solutions, network solutions and optimize solutions, access network solutions, information security solutions, process control systems, solution monitoring centre, and video conferencing solutions for government blocks and enterprises; and enterprise, security and defense, education, transport, and network system and data solutions. Further, it distributes system integration products. The company was founded in 1995 and is based in Hanoi, Vietnam.

Van Lang Technology Development and Investment JSC develops computer software. The Company develops software for the accounting, warehousing, publishing, and supermarket industries.

Van Lang Technology Development And Investment Jsc (VLA VN)

Van Lang Technology Development And Investment Jsc

Samsung Electro-Mechanics Co., Ltd. manufactures a variety of electronic components used in computers, audio and video products, industrial electronics, and telecommunication equipment. The Company's products include multi-layer boards and capacitors, optical Pick Ups, deflection yokes (DY), keyboards, speakers, and light emitting diode (LED) products.

Samsung Electro Mechanics Co, Ltd. (009150 KS)

Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co., Ltd. researches, designs and manufactures security and surveillance equipments. It also modular-designs both hardware and software with flexibility for different configurations, various scales of applications and future expansion.

Jentech Precision Industrial Company Ltd. provides tooling, precision metal stamping, custom insert molding, injection molding, and assembly solutions for medical, consumer electronics, semiconductor, automotive, appliance, and micro electronic markets to a wide variety of industries.

YASKAWA Electric Corporation manufactures and markets servomotors, controllers, inverters, and industrial robots.  The Company's products include spindle controllers, computerized numerical control (CNC) systems, and system engineering.

Insight Enterprises, Inc. offers information technology hardware, software, and services to large enterprises, small to medium sized businesses, and public sector institutions in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia-Pacific.

Dolby Laboratories Inc. develops audio signal processing systems for the motion picture, broadcasting, and music recording industries, as well as the consumer market.

WUS Printed Circuit (Kunshan) Co., Ltd produces and sells electrical equipments and related products.  The Company's products include double-side circuit board, multi-layers circuit board, and connector for electrical equipments.

Wus Printed Circuit (Kunshan) Co,Ltd. (002463 CH)

Innolux Corporation manufactures TFT-LCD, LCD models and LCD monitors. The company also provides research, development, manufacturing and retails business.

LOTES Co., Ltd specialize in design and manufacture of connectors, CPU Socket, Coolers and Antenna for Notebook Computer, Personal Computer, Mobile electronic device and Ditial Video.

Arrow Electronics, Inc. distributes electronic components and computer products to industrial and commercial customers.  The Company distributes a variety of products including computer systems, peripherals, software, and mass storage products to original equipment manufacturers and commercial customers worldwide.

FPT Corp is an information and communication technology company. The Company provides services in mobile distribution, systems integration, software outsourcing and development, Internet and e-media content, and computer assembly.

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FPT Corp (FPT VN)

Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; More Global Breakouts. Buys in Discretionary, Tech

Bullish Outlook Intact; $DXY Rolling Over, 10-Yr Treasury Yield $TNX Rolling Over; More Global Indexes Breaking Out (Israel, Germany, Sweden). Buys...

Vermilion Research

10-Yr Treasury Yield and DXY at Key Inflection Points; $ACWI Testing $93; Energy/HC/Tech/CD Buys

Test of Key Supports: $93 on $ACWI, $47.50 on $ACWX, $70 on $EFA, 4200 on EURO $STOXX 50. As long as 10-Yr Treasury Yield $TNX and $DXY remain...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Support Levels Holding; Bullish Outlook Intact

As long as support levels hold and market dynamics remain positive, our outlook remains bullish and we continue to view any weakness as a buying...

Vermilion Research

FPT - Steady Core Operations but Underestimated Financials

We remain optimistic on the stable growth achieved by FPT’s two core businesses, Technology and Telecom. The large cash flow from the divestments...

Rong Viet Securities

FRT - Aggressive Plan Needs to Be Proven

FPT Retail (FRT) is the second largest mobile phone retailer in Vietnam, after MWG. Its smaller size will allow FRT to expand, although the...

Rong Viet Securities

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