Fundamental Short Selling Research

Eric Fernandez, CFA

TwoRiversAnalytics

Forensic Accounting

Fox Factory Holding / Forensic Accounting

<ul>
<li>This model seeks short-sale candidates among companies that use aggressive accounting and/or exhibit deteriorating quality of earnings.  </li>
<li>They are typically highly idiosyncratic shorts and require thoughtful analyses of upcoming catalysts.  When the company’s issues become well-known, there is often multiple compression as well as a rerating.</li>
<li>These shorts can have high or low betas, valuations based on artificial earnings and exhibit good short responses to subsequently disappointing earnings.</li>
</ul>


This model seeks short-sale candidates among companies that use aggressive accounting and/or exhibit deteriorating quality of earnings.  
They are typically highly idiosyncratic shorts and require thoughtful analyses of upcoming catalysts.  When the company’s issues become well-known, there is often multiple compression as well as a rerating.
These shorts can have high or low betas, valuations based on artificial earnings and exhibit good short responses to subsequently disappointing earnings.


Earnings Quality Short Candidates: Fox Factory, Beyond Meat, Coupa SW, Beacon Roofing

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The market continues to send mixed signals - some neutral or healthy signals but some risk-off signals as well.</li>
<li>As long as the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208, Russell Micro Cap index (IWC) is above $134-$135, and the S&amp;P 500 is above 4495, we cannot be bearish.</li>
<li>Treasury yields are not breaking down below 1.40%-1.45% support on the 10-year Treasury yield and 1.76% support on the 30-year Treasury yield.</li>
</ul>


The market continues to send mixed signals - some neutral or healthy signals but some risk-off signals as well.
As long as the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208, Russell Micro Cap index (IWC) is above $134-$135, and the S&amp;P 500 is above 4495, we cannot be bearish.
Treasury yields are not breaking down below 1.40%-1.45% support on the 10-year Treasury yield and 1.76% support on the 30-year Treasury yield.


Continued Absence Of Breakdowns Is A Positive Sign; Many Bottoms-Up Stock Recommendations

<p>Our outlook remains bullish, and this is not based solely on new highs in the S&amp;P 500 or Russell 2000. While we like to have those boxes checked, more important to us are the trends at the Sector and Group levels. And right now what we see confirms a risk-on environment confirmed by technical strength in manufacturing, biotechs, banks, energy, miners, semis, and foreign markets -- all buys.</p>

Our outlook remains bullish, and this is not based solely on new highs in the S&amp;P 500 or Russell 2000. While we like to have those boxes checked, more important to us are the trends at the Sector and Group levels. And right now what we see confirms a risk-on environment confirmed by technical strength in manufacturing, biotechs, banks, energy, miners, semis, and foreign markets -- all buys.

U.S. Equities: Sector & Group-Level Trends Confirm Risk-On Environment

United States

Fox Factory Holding Corp is a designer, manufacturer and marketer of high-performance suspension products used primarily on mountain bikes, side-by-side vehicles, or Side-by-Sides, on-road vehicles with off-road capabilities, off-road vehicles and trucks, all-terrain vehicles, or ATVs, snowmobiles, specialty vehicles and applications, and motorcycles.

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Fox Factory Holding (FOXF US)

Earnings Quality Short Candidates: Fox Factory, Beyond Meat, Coupa SW, Beacon Roofing

Earnings Quality shorts lead to idiosyncratic alpha. Today, we show our model rankings and highlight Fox Factory, Beyond Meat, Coupa SW, Beacon...

Eric Fernandez, CFA

Continued Absence Of Breakdowns Is A Positive Sign; Many Bottoms-Up Stock Recommendations

As long as the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208, the Russell Micro Caps index (IWC) is above $134-$135, and the S&P 500 is above 4495, we...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equities: Sector & Group-Level Trends Confirm Risk-On Environment

Our outlook remains bullish, and this is not based solely on new highs in the S&P 500 or Russell 2000. While we like to have those boxes...

Vermilion Research

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