Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Incremental technical developments continue to be of the bullish variety as more and more countries/regions begin to participate in the rally. These ongoing improvements further cement our positive overall outlook, and we continue to believe that global equities (MSCI ACWI) are poised for additional strength moving forward. In our April International Strategy, we highlight various themes which lead to our overall positive outlook, along with areas within the world's markets where we see immediate opportunity.

Incremental technical developments continue to be of the bullish variety as more and more countries/regions begin to participate in the rally. These ongoing improvements further cement our positive overall outlook, and we continue to believe that global equities (MSCI ACWI) are poised for additional strength moving forward. In our April International Strategy, we highlight various themes which lead to our overall positive outlook, along with areas within the world's markets where we see immediate opportunity.

Global Ex-U.S. Equity Strategy: Positive Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight China

Materials Analyst/Strategist, Janus Analysis

Gaius King

Materials Analyst/Strategist

Accelerating Tomorrow’s Independent Research

Boost Research

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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/23731" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23731:1">Vale SA (VALE US)</a> have had two major fatal dam-failures in three years</li>
<li>Possible (probable?) design flaw</li>
<li>Expect all Vale's iron ore operations to be technically audited</li>
<li>Substantial Management &amp; Board changes inevitable</li>
<li>Probability that a portion of Vale's existing operations will fail engineering inspection.</li>
<li>Forecast resultant capacity constraints</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a>,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/147" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1">Bhp Billiton (BHP AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/41" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41:1">Fortescue Metals (FMG AU)</a> to benefit from lost production</li>
</ul>



Vale SA (VALE US) have had two major fatal dam-failures in three years
Possible (probable?) design flaw
Expect all Vale's iron ore operations to be technically audited
Substantial Management &amp; Board changes inevitable
Probability that a portion of Vale's existing operations will fail engineering inspection.
Forecast resultant capacity constraints

Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU),  Bhp Billiton (BHP AU), Fortescue Metals (FMG AU) to benefit from lost production


Vale in Trouble - Expect Rio, BHP, FMG to Benefit (Flash Note)

Chief Economist

Diana Choyleva

Enodo Economics

Enodo Economics is an independent macroeconomic forecasting company that untangles complexity, challenges the consensus, and makes sense of the future. Our focus is on China – one of the most misunderstood economies in the world, but one of the most important to figure out.  Enodo’s chief economist, Diana Choyleva, has been analysing China for almost 20 years, while Enodo’s team boasts a combined 140 years’ experience covering China’s economy, politics and markets. 

Macroeconomics

<h2>China News That Matters</h2>
<ul>
<li>Steakhouse showdown for Trump and Xi yields a trade truce</li>
<li>Housing slumps, wealth gap yawns</li>
<li>Pumping iron as prices go bear</li>
<li>Stocks beaten up – but worth a punt?</li>
<li>Lessons in democracy (on one side of the Strait)</li>
</ul>
<div class="content-remarks">
In my weekly digest China News That Matters, I will give you selected summaries, sourced from a variety of local Chinese-language and international news outlets, and highlight why I think the news is significant. These posts are meant to neither be bullish nor bearish, but help you separate the signal from the noise.
</div>

China News That Matters

Steakhouse showdown for Trump and Xi yields a trade truce
Housing slumps, wealth gap yawns
Pumping iron as prices go bear
Stocks beaten up – but worth a punt?
Lessons in democracy (on one side of the Strait)


In my weekly digest China News That Matters, I will give you selected summaries, sourced from a variety of local Chinese-language and international news outlets, and highlight why I think the news is significant. These posts are meant to neither be bullish nor bearish, but help you separate the signal from the noise.


G20/Property Woes/Steel & Iron Slump/Equity Market/Taiwan Election Shocker

Macro and Australian equity strategist, Macro Strategy Advisors

Shane Lee

Macro and Australian equity strategist

Macro Strategy Advisors

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>
A Correction and Not and End-Cycle Sell-off. In our note dated 20 October – “It’s Not Over Yet, But Lift the Bar on Defence” - we argued that the global equity market sell-off was likely a correction and not the beginning of an end-cycle sell-off.  We retain this view, but think better news on trade tariffs is needed if the market is to bounce back.  The US equity market PE derating is more a fundamental adjustment to slower earnings growth rather and better news on costs would be well-received.  The Fed will probably remain unfazed by the October risk-off period, so tightening financial conditions remain a headwind for equities unless the Fed pauses. </li>
<li>
Risk-off Underpinned by Fundamentals: US reporting season has shown that underlying late-cycle cost pressure has been managed relatively well.  However, the large lift in tariffs by the Trump Administration has added to these pressures and the prospect of more tariffs is weighing on the outlook.  The BXB quarterly result showed how these forces are coming together.  Global equity markets fell by 7.3% in the month, with Japan, the US and Asian markets particularly hard hit.  The Australian market began its decline in September (-1.4%), but saw a smaller decline in October than most other developed markets (-6.1%).  Emerging markets in Latin America, apart from Brazil, were also hit hard. </li>
<li>
Cost Pressures Seem to be Modest. During AGM season management has generally guided earnings estimates for FY19 a little lower on the back of higher costs.  Industrial stocks with US operations are under cost pressure (eg. BXB), but higher oil prices are reaching into areas such as airline ticket pricing (FLT).  The Miners are in a sweet spot – production has generally been solid against the backdrop of high bulk commodity prices and a weaker Australian dollar.  The Banks are reimbursing customers for overcharging in an attempt to front-run the recommendations of the Royal Commission.</li>
<li>
The Earnings outlook Still Looks Solid. The Upgrades: downgrades ratio for the market is above average and FY19 earnings growth is tracking similar to FY18 and around 8%.  In our latest model portfolio update, we increased the number of stocks in the portfolio and bought in a defensive earnings tilt.  The Tech sector (-11.5%) was swept up in the global sell-off in the sector and our exposure to WTC has been a drag on the portfolio, but the outlook for the stock seems positive, with management upgrading FY19 guidance.</li>
<li>
The Sell-off Ramped up Short Positioning. Short positioning generally increased during the sell-off.  The most shorted stocks in the ASX 200 are JBH, ORE and GXY.  ING, CSR and IFL saw the largest increase in short positioning, while CYB, AHY and VOC saw the largest falls in short positioning.</li>
<li>
Solid Economic Data Shows the Economy is on a Solid Path. Strong employment data indicates the domestic economy is still growing above trend.  Weak building Approvals and housing finance data highlighted the softness in housing, while weak inflation data for Q3 reinforced the RBA’s rates-on-hold policy agenda.  The Miners and weak currency helped deliver a strong trade surplus in September leaving Australia’s call on global savings relatively small.</li>
</ul>



A Correction and Not and End-Cycle Sell-off. In our note dated 20 October – “It’s Not Over Yet, But Lift the Bar on Defence” - we argued that the global equity market sell-off was likely a correction and not the beginning of an end-cycle sell-off.  We retain this view, but think better news on trade tariffs is needed if the market is to bounce back.  The US equity market PE derating is more a fundamental adjustment to slower earnings growth rather and better news on costs would be well-received.  The Fed will probably remain unfazed by the October risk-off period, so tightening financial conditions remain a headwind for equities unless the Fed pauses. 

Risk-off Underpinned by Fundamentals: US reporting season has shown that underlying late-cycle cost pressure has been managed relatively well.  However, the large lift in tariffs by the Trump Administration has added to these pressures and the prospect of more tariffs is weighing on the outlook.  The BXB quarterly result showed how these forces are coming together.  Global equity markets fell by 7.3% in the month, with Japan, the US and Asian markets particularly hard hit.  The Australian market began its decline in September (-1.4%), but saw a smaller decline in October than most other developed markets (-6.1%).  Emerging markets in Latin America, apart from Brazil, were also hit hard. 

Cost Pressures Seem to be Modest. During AGM season management has generally guided earnings estimates for FY19 a little lower on the back of higher costs.  Industrial stocks with US operations are under cost pressure (eg. BXB), but higher oil prices are reaching into areas such as airline ticket pricing (FLT).  The Miners are in a sweet spot – production has generally been solid against the backdrop of high bulk commodity prices and a weaker Australian dollar.  The Banks are reimbursing customers for overcharging in an attempt to front-run the recommendations of the Royal Commission.

The Earnings outlook Still Looks Solid. The Upgrades: downgrades ratio for the market is above average and FY19 earnings growth is tracking similar to FY18 and around 8%.  In our latest model portfolio update, we increased the number of stocks in the portfolio and bought in a defensive earnings tilt.  The Tech sector (-11.5%) was swept up in the global sell-off in the sector and our exposure to WTC has been a drag on the portfolio, but the outlook for the stock seems positive, with management upgrading FY19 guidance.

The Sell-off Ramped up Short Positioning. Short positioning generally increased during the sell-off.  The most shorted stocks in the ASX 200 are JBH, ORE and GXY.  ING, CSR and IFL saw the largest increase in short positioning, while CYB, AHY and VOC saw the largest falls in short positioning.

Solid Economic Data Shows the Economy is on a Solid Path. Strong employment data indicates the domestic economy is still growing above trend.  Weak building Approvals and housing finance data highlighted the softness in housing, while weak inflation data for Q3 reinforced the RBA’s rates-on-hold policy agenda.  The Miners and weak currency helped deliver a strong trade surplus in September leaving Australia’s call on global savings relatively small.


Aussie Equities Month in Review (Oct 2018)

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
Solid Earnings Momentum Hits a Brick Wall. It’s still early days, with only 40% of stocks reporting during the first 2 weeks of reporting season, but cracks are beginning to appear in the earnings outlook.  FY18 expectations have been mostly met with a slight skew towards upside surprise in results.  However, FY19 earnings are under downward pressure led by the Resources, Financials and Consumer Discretionary.  </li>
<li>
Downgrades following Reporting: WES, TLS, RIO, ORG, SUN, AGL, QBE, AZJ, CWN, DXS, SHL, TAH, VCX, DMP, SEK, IOF, LNK, MFG, NXT, ORA, NVT, PGH, SKC have all seen analysts cut 12-month forward earning growth by more than 3% during reporting season even though the market has responded reasonably positive to these stocks. COH guided to lower FY earnings growth than the market expected and ECX downgraded FY18 earnings during the first week of reporting season.</li>
<li>
Front Running Reporting: ABP, FMG, SAR, NCM, TGR, BPT, AAD are all due to report during the next few weeks and have seen 12-month forward earnings downgraded by analysts.  These stocks are at risk of seeing a drop in FY19 guidance when they report even if there is a surprise in FY18. </li>
<li>
Downgrades for stocks not reporting: AWC, ILU, RWC, SFR, SIG, SIQ, SDA, XRO, WSA, FBU, XRO, DOW, IGO, RRL, BAL, AHY, DHG, GXY, ORE, IFN, NAN have all seen 12-month forward EPS growth downgraded in the past 2 weeks.</li>
<li>
Cost management Rather than Revenue Growth Driving Earnings: Cost pressures are well contained limited to stocks exposed to higher electricity costs and those in the aged care industry (labour).  Indeed, the beats on EPS (63%) are exceeding the beats on revenue.  The Banks are managing cost pressures in short-term funding markets by raising mortgage rates on interest-only and investor mortgages to satisfy the regulator.  Savers are also covering cost increases after seeing deposit rates trimmed.</li>
<li>
Capex for Offence and Defence. Growth stocks such as CSL, TWE and RMD are investing to deliver in long-term growth and the market is giving it a tick of approval to this strategy.  We hold CSL, TWE and COH in our portfolio and will stay for the ride even though valuation pressures are rising.  TLS and CBA are investing to shore-up earnings, leaving little room for near-to-medium-term earnings surprise; but valuations seem cheap. </li>
<li>
Holding Steady with our View. Despite the lift in downgrades, we will not make changes to our portfolio until reporting season is complete.  We’re disappointed in the downgrades to Materials, given our overweight position in Resources.  The strength in key commodities and weakness in the Australian dollar are diving strong FY18 results, but analysts seem to think the cycle has peaked.  </li>
</ul>



Solid Earnings Momentum Hits a Brick Wall. It’s still early days, with only 40% of stocks reporting during the first 2 weeks of reporting season, but cracks are beginning to appear in the earnings outlook.  FY18 expectations have been mostly met with a slight skew towards upside surprise in results.  However, FY19 earnings are under downward pressure led by the Resources, Financials and Consumer Discretionary.  

Downgrades following Reporting: WES, TLS, RIO, ORG, SUN, AGL, QBE, AZJ, CWN, DXS, SHL, TAH, VCX, DMP, SEK, IOF, LNK, MFG, NXT, ORA, NVT, PGH, SKC have all seen analysts cut 12-month forward earning growth by more than 3% during reporting season even though the market has responded reasonably positive to these stocks. COH guided to lower FY earnings growth than the market expected and ECX downgraded FY18 earnings during the first week of reporting season.

Front Running Reporting: ABP, FMG, SAR, NCM, TGR, BPT, AAD are all due to report during the next few weeks and have seen 12-month forward earnings downgraded by analysts.  These stocks are at risk of seeing a drop in FY19 guidance when they report even if there is a surprise in FY18. 

Downgrades for stocks not reporting: AWC, ILU, RWC, SFR, SIG, SIQ, SDA, XRO, WSA, FBU, XRO, DOW, IGO, RRL, BAL, AHY, DHG, GXY, ORE, IFN, NAN have all seen 12-month forward EPS growth downgraded in the past 2 weeks.

Cost management Rather than Revenue Growth Driving Earnings: Cost pressures are well contained limited to stocks exposed to higher electricity costs and those in the aged care industry (labour).  Indeed, the beats on EPS (63%) are exceeding the beats on revenue.  The Banks are managing cost pressures in short-term funding markets by raising mortgage rates on interest-only and investor mortgages to satisfy the regulator.  Savers are also covering cost increases after seeing deposit rates trimmed.

Capex for Offence and Defence. Growth stocks such as CSL, TWE and RMD are investing to deliver in long-term growth and the market is giving it a tick of approval to this strategy.  We hold CSL, TWE and COH in our portfolio and will stay for the ride even though valuation pressures are rising.  TLS and CBA are investing to shore-up earnings, leaving little room for near-to-medium-term earnings surprise; but valuations seem cheap. 

Holding Steady with our View. Despite the lift in downgrades, we will not make changes to our portfolio until reporting season is complete.  We’re disappointed in the downgrades to Materials, given our overweight position in Resources.  The strength in key commodities and weakness in the Australian dollar are diving strong FY18 results, but analysts seem to think the cycle has peaked.  


Aussie Reporting Season Update: Cracks in the Mirror

Australia

Newcrest Mining Limited is a gold mining, exploration and production company. The Company is geographically focused in Australia, the Pacific region and Asia. Newcrest Mining operates projects within six provinces in four countries, focusing on the Cadia East and Lihir MOPU expansion projects and the Wafi Golpu and Namosi greenfield projects.

Northern Star Resources Ltd manufactures precious metals. The Company provides mining and production of gold. Northern Star Resources serves customers in Australia and North America.

South32 Limited operates as a diversified metals and mining company. The Company produces alumina, aluminum, coal, manganese, nickel, silver, lead, and zinc. South32 conducts business globally.

Rio Tinto PLC operates as a mining company. The Company focuses on mining for aluminum, borates, copper, gold, iron ore, lead, silver, tin, uranium, zinc, titanium dioxide feedstock, diamonds, salt, and zircon. Rio Tinto serves clients worldwide.

Glencore plc is a diversified natural resources company. The Company operates in three groups, metals and minerals, energy products, and agricultural products. Glencore offers its products and services around the world.

BlueScope Steel Limited supplies steel products and solutions. The Company manufactures steel slabs, plates, hot and cold rolled coils, and coated and painted strip products for building and construction, automotive, whitegoods, and manufacturing applications. BlueScope Steel serves customers in Asia, Australia, New Zealand, and the United States.

OZ Minerals Ltd. is an Australian based mining company with a focus on copper. The Company owns and operates the Prominent Hill copper-gold mine and the Carrapateena copper-gold project located in South Australia and has a number of equity interests in listed resource companies.

Pilbara Minerals Ltd. is a mineral exploration company. The Company owns mineral tenements in the west Pilbara region of Western Australia where it explores for iron ore, gold and base metals, particularly copper and nickel.

Yancoal Australia Limited provides coal mining services. The Company mines, processes, and sells pure-coal, metallurgical coal, and more. Yancoal Australia also exports its products.

MMG Limited is a mid-tier global resources company which explores, develops and mines base metal projects around the world.  The Company currently owns and operates the Century, Golden Grove and Rosebery mines in Australia, the Kinsevere mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and the LXML Sepon mine in Laos.

POSCO Holdings Inc. manufactures and distributes steel products. The Company produces crude steel, hot rolled steel, cold rolled steel, stainless steel, steel plates, wire rods, galvanized steel, electrical steel, and other related products. POSCO Holdings markets its products worldwide.

JFE Holdings, Inc. is a holding company which was established through the merger of NKK Corp and Kawasaki Steel Corp.  The Company manages and conducts its subsidiaries' business, which is steel production and integrated engineering services.

Vedanta Limited mines, produces, and exports base metals. The Company mines and distributes metals such as zinc, iron ore, copper, silver, and aluminium, as well as operates power plants. Vedanta markets its products worldwide.

Glencore Plc is a diversified natural resources company. The Company operates in three groups: Metals and Minerals, Energy Products, and Agricultural Products. Glencore Plc offers its products and services around the world.

Nippon Steel Corp is an integrated steel maker. The Company produces various types of steel products used for industrial machinery & equipment and exports them worldwide.  Nippon Steel provides plant construction and urban development and also develops new businesses such as chemicals, ceramics, electronic equipment and information & communication systems.

China Steel Corporation manufactures and markets a variety of steel products. The main products are hot rolled coils and sheets, cold rolled coils and sheets, wire rods, steel plates, and steel bars.

China Hongqiao Group Ltd. manufactures aluminum products. The Company's aluminum products consist of molten aluminum alloy, aluminum alloy ingots and aluminum busbars.

Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets a variety of iron and steel products including cold rolled plates and coils, hot rolled plates and coils, seamless steel tubes, high-speed wire rods, and steel billets.  The company also operates in related energy production businesses.

Nucor Corporation manufactures steel products.  The Company's products include carbon and alloy steel, steel joists, steel deck, cold finished steel, steel grinding balls, steel bearing products, and metal buildingsystems. Nucor also brokers ferrous and nonferrous metals, pig iron and HBI/DRI; supplies ferro-alloys; and processes ferrous and nonferrous scrap.

Zijin Mining Group Co., Ltd., through its subsidiaries, explores, mines, produces, refines, and sells gold and other mineral resources in China.

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. explores for and produces iron ore. The Company conducts business worldwide.

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Fortescue Metals (FMG AU)

Global Ex-U.S. Equity Strategy: Positive Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight China

Incremental technical developments continue to be of the bullish variety as more and more countries/regions begin to participate in the rally....

Vermilion Research

Vale in Trouble - Expect Rio, BHP, FMG to Benefit (Flash Note)

Vale SA (VALE US) have had two major fatal dam-failures in three years Possible (probable?) design flaw Expect all Vale's iron ore operations to...

Boost Research

G20/Property Woes/Steel & Iron Slump/Equity Market/Taiwan Election Shocker

China News That Matters Steakhouse showdown for Trump and Xi yields a trade truce Housing slumps, wealth gap yawns Pumping iron as prices go...

Diana Choyleva

Aussie Equities Month in Review (Oct 2018)

A Correction and Not and End-Cycle Sell-off. In our note dated 20 October – “It’s Not Over Yet, But Lift the Bar on Defence” - we argued that the...

Shane Lee

Aussie Reporting Season Update: Cracks in the Mirror

Solid Earnings Momentum Hits a Brick Wall. It’s still early days, with only 40% of stocks reporting during the first 2 weeks of reporting season,...

Shane Lee

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