Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The T50 index represents the top 50 largest stocks by market capitalization in the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE). The T100 index represents the next 100 largest names (51-150 ranks).</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs for the December 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>Currently, we see one change for T50 and one change for T100 but there are two more months to the base date and our expectations can change until then.</li>
</ul>


The T50 index represents the top 50 largest stocks by market capitalization in the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE). The T100 index represents the next 100 largest names (51-150 ranks).
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs for the December 2024 index rebal event.
Currently, we see one change for T50 and one change for T100 but there are two more months to the base date and our expectations can change until then.


Quiddity Leaderboard T50/​​​100 Dec 24: An Alternate Possibility for Formosa Sumco TDIV Deletion

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Y/Y improvement for LCD, PMIC, GaAs RF, gaming card, cooling system, semi equipment&amp;material, semi fab construction, memory, and foundry vendors but more y/y deterioration for WiFi and CMOS sensor vendors</li>
<li>After 6 vendors beating consensus, we might see AI server supply chain, large panel LCD driver, WiFi/networking, and NAND flash vendors in US to report a better than expected 1Q24.</li>
<li>We might see 8"/12" raw wafer (like Shin Etsu, SUMCO , National Silicon Industry, Siltronic AG) vendors in Japan, China, and Germany to report a worse than expected 1Q24.</li>
</ul>


Y/Y improvement for LCD, PMIC, GaAs RF, gaming card, cooling system, semi equipment&amp;material, semi fab construction, memory, and foundry vendors but more y/y deterioration for WiFi and CMOS sensor vendors
After 6 vendors beating consensus, we might see AI server supply chain, large panel LCD driver, WiFi/networking, and NAND flash vendors in US to report a better than expected 1Q24.
We might see 8"/12" raw wafer (like Shin Etsu, SUMCO , National Silicon Industry, Siltronic AG) vendors in Japan, China, and Germany to report a worse than expected 1Q24.


Early Signs from the Reported March/1Q24 Taiwan Semi/Tech Sales

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>There's been a major disconnect between performance of the Philly Semiconductor Index and the Taiwan market recently.</li>
<li>Semi optimism has picked up substantially in U.S. markets and institutional favor towards the Taiwan market could improve as a result.</li>
<li>We indentify US$1bn+  market cap stocks most under-held by institutions, as well as those who may be most at risk of a short squeeze.</li>
</ul>


There's been a major disconnect between performance of the Philly Semiconductor Index and the Taiwan market recently.
Semi optimism has picked up substantially in U.S. markets and institutional favor towards the Taiwan market could improve as a result.
We indentify US$1bn+  market cap stocks most under-held by institutions, as well as those who may be most at risk of a short squeeze.


Taiwan Short Squeeze Ahead? Taiwan Market Significantly Lagging Philly SOX Index

<ul>
<li>We look at where Taiwan tech sits in the cycle and which companies appear better or worse placed to weather the coming inventory correction.</li>
<li>Semiconductor inventory to sales and gross margins near record levels, hardware metrics are high as well but less extreme.</li>
<li>Formosa SUMCO, Macronix, Nanya Technology, Hon Hai Precision, and Flexium appear ahead of the inventory correction curve and well-placed as long positions for the current phase of the cycle.</li>
</ul>


We look at where Taiwan tech sits in the cycle and which companies appear better or worse placed to weather the coming inventory correction.
Semiconductor inventory to sales and gross margins near record levels, hardware metrics are high as well but less extreme.
Formosa SUMCO, Macronix, Nanya Technology, Hon Hai Precision, and Flexium appear ahead of the inventory correction curve and well-placed as long positions for the current phase of the cycle.


Taiwan Tech: Who's Ahead of the Inventory Cycle?

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take look at Quiddity's expectations for index changes and capping flows for the TDIV Index for the December 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>I currently see 5 ADDs and 4 DELs but some of these names are different from what we had last time (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-leaderboard-tdiv-dec-24-5-adds-4-dels-likely-us-1-38bn-one-way" target="_blank" rel="noopener">link</a>).</li>
<li>The current estimate for one-way flow in December 2024 is US$1.54bn.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take look at Quiddity's expectations for index changes and capping flows for the TDIV Index for the December 2024 index rebal event.
I currently see 5 ADDs and 4 DELs but some of these names are different from what we had last time (link).
The current estimate for one-way flow in December 2024 is US$1.54bn.


Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Dec 24: Trade Successful; +9.5% in Three Weeks; More Upside Possible.

Taiwan

Formosa Sumco Technology Corporation specializes in testing and manufacture of Silicon chip materials.

Price Gauge
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Formosa Sumco Technology (3532 TT)

Quiddity Leaderboard T50/100 Dec 24: An Alternate Possibility for Formosa Sumco TDIV Deletion

T100 and TDIV member Formosa Sumco Technology (3532 TT) is very close to violating a key eligibility requirement for T100 which could see the name...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Early Signs from the Reported March/1Q24 Taiwan Semi/Tech Sales

Early Signs from the Reported March/1Q24 Taiwan Semi/Tech Sales; we might see AI server, WiFi/networking, and NAND vendors in US to beat 1Q24 but...

Andrew Lu

Taiwan Short Squeeze Ahead? Taiwan Market Significantly Lagging Philly SOX Index

We indentify US$1bn+ market cap stocks most under-held by institutions, as well as those who may be most at risk of a short squeeze.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech: Who's Ahead of the Inventory Cycle?

We look at where Taiwan tech sits in the cycle and which companies appear better or worse placed to weather the coming inventory correction.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Dec 24: Trade Successful; +9.5% in Three Weeks; More Upside Possible.

The LONG-SHORT trade focusing deep-in-the-money ADDs and DELs has delivered strong market-neutral returns over the last few weeks and we see more...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Quiddity Leaderboard T50/​​​100 Dec 24: An Alternate Possibility for Formosa Sumco TDIV Deletion

T100 and TDIV member Formosa Sumco Technology (3532 TT) is very close to violating a key eligibility requirement for T100 which could see the name...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Early Signs from the Reported March/1Q24 Taiwan Semi/Tech Sales

Early Signs from the Reported March/1Q24 Taiwan Semi/Tech Sales; we might see AI server, WiFi/networking, and NAND vendors in US to beat 1Q24 but...

Andrew Lu

Taiwan Short Squeeze Ahead? Taiwan Market Significantly Lagging Philly SOX Index

We indentify US$1bn+ market cap stocks most under-held by institutions, as well as those who may be most at risk of a short squeeze.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech: Who's Ahead of the Inventory Cycle?

We look at where Taiwan tech sits in the cycle and which companies appear better or worse placed to weather the coming inventory correction.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Dec 24: Trade Successful; +9.5% in Three Weeks; More Upside Possible.

The LONG-SHORT trade focusing deep-in-the-money ADDs and DELs has delivered strong market-neutral returns over the last few weeks and we see more...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard T50/100 Dec 24: An Alternate Possibility for Formosa Sumco TDIV Deletion