Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Ford Motor Company presented its results for the third quarter of 2024, revealing a blend of strategic maneuvers and ongoing challenges.</li><li>The earnings call highlighted several key points that could form the basis of an investment thesis.</li><li>On the positive side, Ford has demonstrated significant progress in restructuring its global operations.</li></ul>

Ford Motor Company presented its results for the third quarter of 2024, revealing a blend of strategic maneuvers and ongoing challenges.The earnings call highlighted several key points that could form the basis of an investment thesis.On the positive side, Ford has demonstrated significant progress in restructuring its global operations.

Is Ford's Future on the Line? The Impact of Trump’s Tariffs and EV Tax Cuts Explained!

<ul><li>Ford Motor Company's second quarter 2024 performance offers a comprehensive snapshot of a transitional phase in the company's long-standing history.</li><li>The quarter reflects their advancing Ford+ strategic plan which aims to refine operational efficiencies and bolster profit margins through structural adaptations and technological advancements.</li><li>Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company's price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.</li></ul>

Ford Motor Company's second quarter 2024 performance offers a comprehensive snapshot of a transitional phase in the company's long-standing history.The quarter reflects their advancing Ford+ strategic plan which aims to refine operational efficiencies and bolster profit margins through structural adaptations and technological advancements.Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company's price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Ford Motor Company: EV Segment Losses & Surging Warranty Costs Are A Major Concern! - Major Drivers

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Like other automotive/industrial semi vendors, Diodes guides 4Q23 sales of 20% q/q and 35% y/y decline (miss by 21%) and weaker gross margin/operating margin of 35%/7% (miss by 5ppts).</li>
<li>The company sees 4Q23 sales decline of 20% mainly from 19% of automotive and 26% of industrial customers due to customer inventory cut coupled with year-end distributor inventory management. </li>
<li>We expect this adjustment for automotive/industrial IDMs to last for at least 6 months and suggest our clients to avoid these names unless valuation becoming attractive.  </li>
</ul>


Like other automotive/industrial semi vendors, Diodes guides 4Q23 sales of 20% q/q and 35% y/y decline (miss by 21%) and weaker gross margin/operating margin of 35%/7% (miss by 5ppts).
The company sees 4Q23 sales decline of 20% mainly from 19% of automotive and 26% of industrial customers due to customer inventory cut coupled with year-end distributor inventory management. 
We expect this adjustment for automotive/industrial IDMs to last for at least 6 months and suggest our clients to avoid these names unless valuation becoming attractive.  


With No Surprise, Diodes Guides Automotive/Industrial Semi Demand to Fall over 20% Q/Q

<ul><li>Ford Motor Company's first-quarter 2024 earnings presented a recurring theme of transformation as the company transitions into a high-growth, high-margin, capital-efficient, and resilient business.</li><li>The discussion showcased the company's strategic shifts and, particularly emphasised on balancing the resilient Ford Pro business's profitability with the challenges arising from the electrification segment, Model e's losses.</li><li>Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company's price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.</li></ul>

Ford Motor Company's first-quarter 2024 earnings presented a recurring theme of transformation as the company transitions into a high-growth, high-margin, capital-efficient, and resilient business.The discussion showcased the company's strategic shifts and, particularly emphasised on balancing the resilient Ford Pro business's profitability with the challenges arising from the electrification segment, Model e's losses.Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company's price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Ford Motor Company: Will Its Expansion Of Hybrid Vehicles Compensate For The EV Demand Slowdown? - Major Drivers

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

<ul>
<li>Global fund positioning in the Motor Vehicles sector has entered a fresh decline following a revival between 2020 and 2023.</li>
<li>A record-low 10% of active Global funds are now overweight, with the sector holding an average underweight of -1.41%, making it the 4th largest industry-level underweight among active managers.</li>
<li>Long-Term declines in Japanese autos have hit new lows, while German and US autos have drifted lower since 2023.</li>
</ul>


Global fund positioning in the Motor Vehicles sector has entered a fresh decline following a revival between 2020 and 2023.
A record-low 10% of active Global funds are now overweight, with the sector holding an average underweight of -1.41%, making it the 4th largest industry-level underweight among active managers.
Long-Term declines in Japanese autos have hit new lows, while German and US autos have drifted lower since 2023.


Global Autos:  Falling Investor Confidence

United States

Ford Motor Company designs, manufactures, and services cars and trucks.  The Company also provides vehicle-related financing, leasing, and insurance through its subsidiary.

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Ford Motor Co (F US)

Is Ford's Future on the Line? The Impact of Trump’s Tariffs and EV Tax Cuts Explained!

Ford Motor Company presented its results for the third quarter of 2024, revealing a blend of strategic maneuvers and ongoing challenges. The...

Baptista Research

Ford Motor Company: EV Segment Losses & Surging Warranty Costs Are A Major Concern! - Major Drivers

Ford Motor Company's second quarter 2024 performance offers a comprehensive snapshot of a transitional phase in the company's long-standing...

Baptista Research

With No Surprise, Diodes Guides Automotive/Industrial Semi Demand to Fall over 20% Q/Q

With No Surprise, Diodes Guides Automotive/Industrial Semi Demand to Fall over 20% Q/Q, margin contraction, and rising months of inventory. We see...

Andrew Lu

Ford Motor Company: Will Its Expansion Of Hybrid Vehicles Compensate For The EV Demand Slowdown? - Major Drivers

Ford Motor Company's first-quarter 2024 earnings presented a recurring theme of transformation as the company transitions into a high-growth,...

Baptista Research

Global Autos: Falling Investor Confidence

Tesla overtakes Stellantis as the most widely held Auto company. General Motors is ahead of the almost uninvestable Ford Motor Co.

Steven Holden

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