European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have generally tightened during May. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 50.1%; GBL, 40.5% (!); Heineken Holding, 16.0%; Industrivärden C, 5.2%; Investor B, 11.6%; Porsche Automobile Holding, 45.1%. </li>
<li>The spread of Rio Tinto DLC widened to 17.2%. Rio Tinto is a candidate for an Australian top hat structure.</li>
<li>Recommended trades: Heineken Holding/Heineken, Porsche SE/vs. listed assets and Rio DLC.</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have generally tightened during May. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 50.1%; GBL, 40.5% (!); Heineken Holding, 16.0%; Industrivärden C, 5.2%; Investor B, 11.6%; Porsche Automobile Holding, 45.1%. 
The spread of Rio Tinto DLC widened to 17.2%. Rio Tinto is a candidate for an Australian top hat structure.
Recommended trades: Heineken Holding/Heineken, Porsche SE/vs. listed assets and Rio DLC.


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: May’23 Report

<ul>
<li>FEMSA has placed c.€3.3 billion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/heineken-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21117:1" rel="noopener">Heineken NV (HEIA NA)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/heineken-holding-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21118:1" rel="noopener">Heineken Holding NV (HEIO NA)</a> shares and tap €250 million of existing 2026 Exchangeable bonds. The placement removes a major overhang.</li>
<li>The holding structure (equivalence 1 HEIO NA ~ 1 HEIA NO) allows the Heineken family to control the second largest brewer worldwide, with just a 27.3% economic interest (post-FEMSA's placement).</li>
<li>The discount has tightened to 15.8%, still above the 10.4% average of the last ten years, and rather large considering such a simple structure.</li>
</ul>


FEMSA has placed c.€3.3 billion of Heineken NV (HEIA NA) and Heineken Holding NV (HEIO NA) shares and tap €250 million of existing 2026 Exchangeable bonds. The placement removes a major overhang.
The holding structure (equivalence 1 HEIO NA ~ 1 HEIA NO) allows the Heineken family to control the second largest brewer worldwide, with just a 27.3% economic interest (post-FEMSA's placement).
The discount has tightened to 15.8%, still above the 10.4% average of the last ten years, and rather large considering such a simple structure.


FEMSA's Exit from Heineken/Heineken Holding and Share Price Spread

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Oil & Natural Gas Corp / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) has continued to hold above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand, meaning we are constructive from a price perspective.</li>
<li>We have maintained an underweight to emerging markets, and we are overweight developed international (MSCI EAFE, Europe, Japan) as discussed in in <em>Int’l Compass</em> and <em>ETF Pathfinder</em> reports throughout 2023.</li>
<li>Still, there are plenty of attractive countries and Sectors within the EM landscape, which is what we are focusing on today.</li>
</ul>


MSCI EM (EEM-US) has continued to hold above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand, meaning we are constructive from a price perspective.
We have maintained an underweight to emerging markets, and we are overweight developed international (MSCI EAFE, Europe, Japan) as discussed in in Int’l Compass and ETF Pathfinder reports throughout 2023.
Still, there are plenty of attractive countries and Sectors within the EM landscape, which is what we are focusing on today.


EM Strategy: MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving-Overweight; Overweights: Taiwan, India, Mexico

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), EAFE (EFA-US), and EM (EEM-US) are all reversing topside their 2-month downtrends.</li>
<li>Despite this being a bullish short-term development, we still expect $93 to cap upside on the ACWI-US, leaving about 4-5% upside from here (at time of writing)</li>
<li>As a result, we would use any further strength as an opportunity to get more defensive. Actionable Themes: REA-AU, GFL-CA, GFL-US, Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Gold Miners</li>
</ul>


The MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), EAFE (EFA-US), and EM (EEM-US) are all reversing topside their 2-month downtrends.
Despite this being a bullish short-term development, we still expect $93 to cap upside on the ACWI-US, leaving about 4-5% upside from here (at time of writing)
As a result, we would use any further strength as an opportunity to get more defensive. Actionable Themes: REA-AU, GFL-CA, GFL-US, Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Gold Miners


Shift To Defensives as $ACWI Makes Push for $93; Remain Overweight Europe; Opptys in China/HK, Japan

iShares MSCI ACWI ex US ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The bear market rally we have discussed since our Sept. 29 Int'l Compass has managed to surpass our price targets, which were the YTD downtrends on the ACWX-US and EFA-US.</li>
<li>As you will see below, many countries are reversing topside their 6.5-month to YTD downtrends.</li>
<li>As a result of these bullish reversals and breakdowns on the US dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral. Buy on pullbacks.</li>
</ul>


The bear market rally we have discussed since our Sept. 29 Int'l Compass has managed to surpass our price targets, which were the YTD downtrends on the ACWX-US and EFA-US.
As you will see below, many countries are reversing topside their 6.5-month to YTD downtrends.
As a result of these bullish reversals and breakdowns on the US dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral. Buy on pullbacks.


Positive Character Changes; MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, STOXX 50, Countless Others Reversing Downtrends

Mexico

Fomento Economico Mexicano, S.A.B. de C.V. (FEMSA) is a Company that through its subsidiaries produces, distributes and markets non-alcoholic beverages throughout Latin America as part of the Coca-Cola system. The Company owns and operates convenience stores in Mexico and Colombia and holds a stake in Heineken.

Fomento Economico Mexica-Ubd (FEMSAUBD MM)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Fomento Economico Mexica-Ubd (FEMSAUBD MM)

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: May’23 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have generally tightened during May. The discount to NAV of GBL has reached a very high level, in my view. That...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

EM Strategy: MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving-Overweight; Overweights: Taiwan, India, Mexico

MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving -- Upgrading to Overweight; MSCI EM Technology remains an Overweight. Top Country Overweights: Taiwan, India,...

Vermilion Research

Shift To Defensives as $ACWI Makes Push for $93; Remain Overweight Europe; Opptys in China/HK, Japan

$ACWI, $ACWX, $EFA, and $EEM all reversing topside their 2-month downtrends. Despite this bullish short-term development, we still expect $93 to...

Vermilion Research

Positive Character Changes; MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, STOXX 50, Countless Others Reversing Downtrends

MSCI ACWI ex-US $ACWX and EAFE $EFA reversing their YTD downtrends, with countless other countries doing the same. This is a clear character...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: May’23 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have generally tightened during May. The discount to NAV of GBL has reached a very high level, in my view. That...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

FEMSA's Exit from Heineken/Heineken Holding and Share Price Spread

FEMSA has now divested its entire interest in the Heineken Group (in both HEIA and HEIO). The Heineken family has slightly increased its control in...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

EM Strategy: MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving-Overweight; Overweights: Taiwan, India, Mexico

MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving -- Upgrading to Overweight; MSCI EM Technology remains an Overweight. Top Country Overweights: Taiwan, India,...

Vermilion Research

Shift To Defensives as $ACWI Makes Push for $93; Remain Overweight Europe; Opptys in China/HK, Japan

$ACWI, $ACWX, $EFA, and $EEM all reversing topside their 2-month downtrends. Despite this bullish short-term development, we still expect $93 to...

Vermilion Research

Positive Character Changes; MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, STOXX 50, Countless Others Reversing Downtrends

MSCI ACWI ex-US $ACWX and EAFE $EFA reversing their YTD downtrends, with countless other countries doing the same. This is a clear character...

Vermilion Research