Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

On Friday post market close, S&amp;P Dow Jones announced the results of the March review for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 (SPX INDEX)</a> that will be effective after the close of trading on 19 March.There are 4 additions - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nxp-semiconductors-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9801:1" rel="noopener">Nxp Semiconductors Nv (NXPI US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/penn-national-gaming-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5588:1" rel="noopener">Penn National Gaming (PENN US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/generac-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16223:1" rel="noopener">Generac Holdings (GNRC US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/caesars-entertainment-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15532:1" rel="noopener">Caesars Entertainment (CZR US)</a>. To balance that out, there are 4 deletions - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/flowserve-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20555:1" rel="noopener">Flowserve Corp (FLS US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sl-green-realty-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1548:1" rel="noopener">Sl Green Realty (SLG US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xerox-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17585:1" rel="noopener">Xerox Corp (XRX US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vontier-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28857:1" rel="noopener">Vontier Corp (VNT US)</a>.We estimate one-way turnover will be around US$22.4bn and the funding trade will see selling on a lot of the current index constituents.The biggest impact of the changes will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nxp-semiconductors-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9801:1" rel="noopener">Nxp Semiconductors Nv (NXPI US)</a> where we estimate passive funds will need to buy around 11 days of ADV on the stock. The impact on the other stocks is much lower due to the move between the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 (SPX INDEX)</a> and the S&amp;P Mid Cap 400 indices.

On Friday post market close, S&amp;P Dow Jones announced the results of the March review for the S&amp;P 500 (SPX INDEX) that will be effective after the close of trading on 19 March.There are 4 additions - Nxp Semiconductors Nv (NXPI US), Penn National Gaming (PENN US), Generac Holdings (GNRC US) and Caesars Entertainment (CZR US). To balance that out, there are 4 deletions - Flowserve Corp (FLS US), Sl Green Realty (SLG US), Xerox Corp (XRX US) and Vontier Corp (VNT US).We estimate one-way turnover will be around US$22.4bn and the funding trade will see selling on a lot of the current index constituents.The biggest impact of the changes will be on Nxp Semiconductors Nv (NXPI US) where we estimate passive funds will need to buy around 11 days of ADV on the stock. The impact on the other stocks is much lower due to the move between the S&amp;P 500 (SPX INDEX) and the S&amp;P Mid Cap 400 indices.

S&P500 Index Rebalance: NXPI Is the One to Watch

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

As bullish developments pile up, the weight-of-the-evidence continues to support our belief that we may be in the early stages of a broad-based advance. There are some developments that leave us wanting more, but we are inching toward an outright bullish outlook. In today’s report we outline our U.S. investment thesis, and highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Health Care, Materials, and Manufacturing: Biotech, Large-Cap, Aluminum, Chemicals, Diversified, and Fluid Technology &amp; Power.

As bullish developments pile up, the weight-of-the-evidence continues to support our belief that we may be in the early stages of a broad-based advance. There are some developments that leave us wanting more, but we are inching toward an outright bullish outlook. In today’s report we outline our U.S. investment thesis, and highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Health Care, Materials, and Manufacturing: Biotech, Large-Cap, Aluminum, Chemicals, Diversified, and Fluid Technology &amp; Power.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Small-Caps Testing Critical Resistance; Downgrading Communications

US/Europe Event-Driven Analyst

John DeMasi

On May 21, 2019 <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/20662" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20662:1">Crane Co (CR US)</a> announced a proposal to acquire <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/10244" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10244:1">Circor International (CIR US)</a>, a manufacturer of pumps, valves, regulators, actuators, and related engineered components for $45 per share in cash, for a total equity value of $895 million and a total enterprise value of $1.55 billion ($1.7 billion if net pension liability is included). The proposal price of $45 represents a 47% premium over the May 20, 2019 CIR US closing price of $30.66. Crane held a conference call and released a slide presentation on its proposal with more details. In this piece I evaluate the proposal and the impediments standing in Crane’s way of winning this deal.

On May 21, 2019 Crane Co (CR US) announced a proposal to acquire Circor International (CIR US), a manufacturer of pumps, valves, regulators, actuators, and related engineered components for $45 per share in cash, for a total equity value of $895 million and a total enterprise value of $1.55 billion ($1.7 billion if net pension liability is included). The proposal price of $45 represents a 47% premium over the May 20, 2019 CIR US closing price of $30.66. Crane held a conference call and released a slide presentation on its proposal with more details. In this piece I evaluate the proposal and the impediments standing in Crane’s way of winning this deal.

Crane Co. Proposal to Acquire CIRCOR International – Actuator Wanted

Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In this piece I look at the failure of HK to meet its challenges, especially since 1997, while contrasting in less depth the different approach Singapore has maintained.HK is stuffed on several levels – until prices have a significant correction.I think we could write a few tales on Singapore vs Hong Kong:1) SMRT vs HK MTRC… (see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mtr-66-hk-conviction-sell-thesis" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:7982">MTR (66 HK): Conviction Sell Thesis</a>) and other recent points on the MTRC)2) PSA vs HIT/Hutch and HK Ports…3) Singapore vs HK middle classes, and the oppression of high prices

In this piece I look at the failure of HK to meet its challenges, especially since 1997, while contrasting in less depth the different approach Singapore has maintained.HK is stuffed on several levels – until prices have a significant correction.I think we could write a few tales on Singapore vs Hong Kong:1) SMRT vs HK MTRC… (see MTR (66 HK): Conviction Sell Thesis) and other recent points on the MTRC)2) PSA vs HIT/Hutch and HK Ports…3) Singapore vs HK middle classes, and the oppression of high prices

The Decline of the Entrepôt Economy, HK's Fall from Grace...The Socio-Political & Economic Drivers

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

Shares of diversified industrials have traded up in the aftermath of the U.S. presidential election, frothy with anticipation as a Republican-controlled Congress offers the possibility of business-friendly policymaking meant to revitalize a U.S. manufacturing landscape affected by globalization. This sentiment rang loud and clear at the 2017 annual outlook meetings of four U.S.-based wide-moat industrial titans representing over half a trillion dollars of market capitalization: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/3-m-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14866:1">3 M Co (MMM US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/782" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:782:1">General Electric Co (GE US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/12750" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12750:1">United Technologies Corp (UTX US)</a> , and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/16765" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16765:1">Honeywell International Inc (HON US)</a> .While management teams enthusiastically highlighted corporate tax reform, capital mobility, and infrastructure spending as potential near-term earnings tailwinds, all stopped short of explicitly incorporating these favorable outcomes into 2017 expectations. We agree that it's too early to include Trump's America in the base-case assumptions that fuel our discounted cash flow analyses. However, if Trump's target corporate tax rates and modest top-line growth materialize, our bull-case scenarios look realistic, which would offer investors returns of 46.6% from today's market price for shares of United Technologies, 32.3% for GE, 30.9% for Honeywell, and 17.5% for 3M. Given the cone of uncertainty surrounding the timing and feasibility of the new administration's plans, we recommend that investors wait until greater margins of safety emerge to build positions in 3M, GE, and Honeywell, which all look slightly overvalued according to our base-case scenarios; however, we continue to like United Technologies, which is trading at a 9% discount.Analyst: Barbara Noverini

Shares of diversified industrials have traded up in the aftermath of the U.S. presidential election, frothy with anticipation as a Republican-controlled Congress offers the possibility of business-friendly policymaking meant to revitalize a U.S. manufacturing landscape affected by globalization. This sentiment rang loud and clear at the 2017 annual outlook meetings of four U.S.-based wide-moat industrial titans representing over half a trillion dollars of market capitalization: 3 M Co (MMM US) , General Electric Co (GE US) , United Technologies Corp (UTX US) , and Honeywell International Inc (HON US) .While management teams enthusiastically highlighted corporate tax reform, capital mobility, and infrastructure spending as potential near-term earnings tailwinds, all stopped short of explicitly incorporating these favorable outcomes into 2017 expectations. We agree that it's too early to include Trump's America in the base-case assumptions that fuel our discounted cash flow analyses. However, if Trump's target corporate tax rates and modest top-line growth materialize, our bull-case scenarios look realistic, which would offer investors returns of 46.6% from today's market price for shares of United Technologies, 32.3% for GE, 30.9% for Honeywell, and 17.5% for 3M. Given the cone of uncertainty surrounding the timing and feasibility of the new administration's plans, we recommend that investors wait until greater margins of safety emerge to build positions in 3M, GE, and Honeywell, which all look slightly overvalued according to our base-case scenarios; however, we continue to like United Technologies, which is trading at a 9% discount.Analyst: Barbara Noverini 

Tax Reform Top of Mind for Wide-Moat U.S. Industrial Firms

United States

Flowserve Corporation designs, manufactures, distributes, and services industrial flow management equipment throughout the world. The Company provides pumps, valves, and mechanical seals primarily for the refinery and pipeline segments of the petroleum, chemical processing, power generation, and water treatment industries.

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Flowserve Corp (FLS US)

S&P500 Index Rebalance: NXPI Is the One to Watch

There are 4 changes to the S&P500 with NXP Semiconductors the largest beneficiary of the changes. Estimated one-way turnover is US$22.4bn and there...

Brian Freitas

U.S. Equity Strategy: Small-Caps Testing Critical Resistance; Downgrading Communications

As bullish developments pile up, the weight-of-the-evidence continues to support our belief that we may be in the early stages of a broad-based...

Vermilion Research

Crane Co. Proposal to Acquire CIRCOR International – Actuator Wanted

On May 21, 2019 Crane Co (CR US) announced a proposal to acquire Circor International (CIR US), a manufacturer of pumps, valves, regulators,...

John DeMasi

The Decline of the Entrepôt Economy, HK's Fall from Grace...The Socio-Political & Economic Drivers

In this piece I look at the failure of HK to meet its challenges, especially since 1997, while contrasting in less depth the different approach...

Charles De Trenck

Tax Reform Top of Mind for Wide-Moat U.S. Industrial Firms

Shares of diversified industrials have traded up in the aftermath of the U.S. presidential election, frothy with anticipation as a...

Morningstar, Inc.

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