New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Fletcher Building (FBU) will report its FY24 result on Wednesday, 21 August.</li><li>We expect FY24 EBIT of NZ$514m, down materially on FY23, but in the middle of FBU's guidance range of NZ$500m–$530m EBIT, which includes NZ$10m–$15m of restructuring costs.</li><li>Areas of focus will be: (1) the balance sheet given elevated debt levels, (2) an update on WA pipes and legacy construction projects, and (3) current trading and outlook comments, given slowing construction activity. </li></ul>

Fletcher Building (FBU) will report its FY24 result on Wednesday, 21 August.We expect FY24 EBIT of NZ$514m, down materially on FY23, but in the middle of FBU's guidance range of NZ$500m–$530m EBIT, which includes NZ$10m–$15m of restructuring costs.Areas of focus will be: (1) the balance sheet given elevated debt levels, (2) an update on WA pipes and legacy construction projects, and (3) current trading and outlook comments, given slowing construction activity. 

Fletcher Building - FY24 Preview — Tools Down

<ul><li>We lower our Fletcher Building (FBU) rating from OUTPERFORM to NEUTRAL, and reduce our 12-month target price to NZ$3.80.</li><li>There were few redeeming features in today's trading update, with the core materials and distribution businesses bearing the brunt of the cyclical downturn (although channel checks suggest more so than some peers) while the lower multiple residential development and construction divisions are faring better.</li><li>With guidance for debt to remain elevated in 2H24, questions around FBU's balance sheet linger. </li></ul>

We lower our Fletcher Building (FBU) rating from OUTPERFORM to NEUTRAL, and reduce our 12-month target price to NZ$3.80.There were few redeeming features in today's trading update, with the core materials and distribution businesses bearing the brunt of the cyclical downturn (although channel checks suggest more so than some peers) while the lower multiple residential development and construction divisions are faring better.With guidance for debt to remain elevated in 2H24, questions around FBU's balance sheet linger. 

Fletcher Building - In the Balance, Down to NEUTRAL

<ul><li>Fletcher Building's (FBU) 1H24 result and FY24 guidance was disappointing. FBU does have some good NZ businesses with strong market positions which have generated c.NZ$390m EBIT on average over the last decade.</li><li>However, group performance has been dragged down by issues in Construction and Australia. The question is: are these over?</li><li>We think it's unlikely in the short-term, with the New Zealand International Convention Centre (NZICC) still to be completed and Iplex pipe issues still unresolved. </li></ul>

Fletcher Building's (FBU) 1H24 result and FY24 guidance was disappointing. FBU does have some good NZ businesses with strong market positions which have generated c.NZ$390m EBIT on average over the last decade.However, group performance has been dragged down by issues in Construction and Australia. The question is: are these over?We think it's unlikely in the short-term, with the New Zealand International Convention Centre (NZICC) still to be completed and Iplex pipe issues still unresolved. 

<ul><li>Fletcher Building (FBU) has added a further NZ$180m of provisions in its construction division, largely relating to the NZ International Convention Centre (NZICC).</li><li>This is particularly disappointing given it has been just six months since the last one and continues to bring into question management controls and board oversight.</li><li>The ultimate cash cost will see gearing reach the top end of FBU's target range and we expect a reduction in dividends and cuts to the growth capex pipeline at its upcoming 1H24 result (14 February) to provide some headroom. </li></ul>

Fletcher Building (FBU) has added a further NZ$180m of provisions in its construction division, largely relating to the NZ International Convention Centre (NZICC).This is particularly disappointing given it has been just six months since the last one and continues to bring into question management controls and board oversight.The ultimate cash cost will see gearing reach the top end of FBU's target range and we expect a reduction in dividends and cuts to the growth capex pipeline at its upcoming 1H24 result (14 February) to provide some headroom. 

Fletcher Building  - NZICC Steels More Cash

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Nov 8th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD25.2bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in National Australia Bank, Sigma Pharmaceuticals, Macquarie, Aristocrat Leisure, Evolution Mining.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Nov 8th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD25.2bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in National Australia Bank, Sigma Pharmaceuticals, Macquarie, Aristocrat Leisure, Evolution Mining.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Nov 8th): National Australia Bank, Sigma Pharmaceuticals, Macquarie

New Zealand

Fletcher Building Limited manufactures, distributes, and sells materials for the building industry including wood fiber-based products, cement and aggregates, plasterboard, laminates, lumber, and aluminium extrusion. The Company operates primarily in New Zealand and Australia.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Fletcher Building (FBU NZ)

Fletcher Building - FY24 Preview — Tools Down

We expect FY24 EBIT of NZ$514m, down materially on FY23, but in the middle of FBU's guidance range of NZ$500m–$530m EBIT, which includes...

Forsyth Barr

Fletcher Building - In the Balance, Down to NEUTRAL

We lower our Fletcher Building (FBU) rating from OUTPERFORM to NEUTRAL, and reduce our 12-month target price to NZ$3.80. There were few redeeming...

Forsyth Barr

Fletcher Building - A House Under Repair

Fletcher Building's (FBU) 1H24 result and FY24 guidance was disappointing. FBU does have some good NZ businesses with strong market positions...

Forsyth Barr

Fletcher Building - NZICC Steels More Cash

Fletcher Building (FBU) has added a further NZ$180m of provisions in its construction division, largely relating to the NZ International...

Forsyth Barr

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Nov 8th): National Australia Bank, Sigma Pharmaceuticals, Macquarie

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in National Australia Bank, Sigma Pharmaceuticals,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)