Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

We must expect some degree of higher NPL formation at banks in Texas due to lower oil prices. But in the current environment that will be compounded with more traditional credit stresses from the shutdown; many Banks in Texas  have a high level of CRE loans. We look at how banks fare with recent credit growth, with the concern that some have grown incredibly fast into the downturn. While the Texas Ratio may be good at identifying which banks have more capital and provisions compared with impaired and loan loans, we feel it can also lag; credit growth can be a better lead indicator of future stresses.

We must expect some degree of higher NPL formation at banks in Texas due to lower oil prices. But in the current environment that will be compounded with more traditional credit stresses from the shutdown; many Banks in Texas  have a high level of CRE loans. We look at how banks fare with recent credit growth, with the concern that some have grown incredibly fast into the downturn. While the Texas Ratio may be good at identifying which banks have more capital and provisions compared with impaired and loan loans, we feel it can also lag; credit growth can be a better lead indicator of future stresses.

Bank Industry Standards applies standard analytics & forecasts to 800+ banks, Bank Industry Standards

Steve Lander

Bank Industry Standards applies standard analytics & forecasts to 800+ banks

Bank Industry Standards

Equity Bottom-Up

The Federal Reserve collects &amp; publishes enterprise-level data for 800+ US banks, every quarter. &nbsp; &nbsp; It has done so for over 30 years. &nbsp; &nbsp; This data has identical structure, bank to bank &amp; over Time. Bank Industry Standards transforms this data to forecasts, factor sensitivities &amp; stress tests. All while preserving the uniformity of the data structure. Tools enable investors to profit from bank (price) inefficiency. This series canvasses 100 US banks in 100 days ($1.6tn of US bank market cap). Each bank in this series has identical analysis, raw and useful for surveillance. The entire series can be purchased, at once, by subscribing to the full-insight series. The full insight features 13m forecasts for earnings generated by auto-oscillation of forecast parameters. &nbsp; &nbsp; The spectrum below is probability bands for forecasts made, in +/- 5% from Consensus (red line). Earnings excluding levels of Gains in 2014 that we believe are questionably sustainable into 2016, are as per the green vertical line.

The Federal Reserve collects &amp; publishes enterprise-level data for 800+ US banks, every quarter. &nbsp; &nbsp; It has done so for over 30 years. &nbsp; &nbsp; This data has identical structure, bank to bank &amp; over Time.   Bank Industry Standards transforms this data to forecasts, factor sensitivities &amp; stress tests. All while preserving the uniformity of the data structure. Tools enable investors to profit from bank (price) inefficiency.   This series canvasses 100 US banks in 100 days ($1.6tn of US bank market cap). Each bank in this series has identical analysis, raw and useful for surveillance. The entire series can be purchased, at once, by subscribing to the full-insight series.   The full insight features 13m forecasts for earnings generated by auto-oscillation of forecast parameters. &nbsp; &nbsp; The spectrum below is probability bands for forecasts made, in +/- 5% from Consensus (red line). Earnings excluding levels of Gains in 2014 that we believe are questionably sustainable into 2016, are as per the green vertical line.

Deeply embedded, with precious little Advantage

United States

First Financial Bankshares, Inc. is a multi-bank holding company. The Company operates several banks located in Texas. The Banks accept deposits, originate loans, transmit funds, and perform other banking services.

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First Finl Bankshares (FFIN US)

Texas Banks – Oversized Loan Growth

We must expect some degree of higher NPL formation at banks in Texas due to lower oil prices. But in the current environment that will be...

Daniel Tabbush

Deeply embedded, with precious little Advantage

The Federal Reserve collects & publishes enterprise-level data for 800+ US banks, every quarter. It has done so for over 30 years. This...

Steve Lander

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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