Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Capital Markets

Central Retail Corp Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/central-retail-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28240:1" rel="noopener">Central Retail (CRC TB)</a>is one of the largest retailers in Thailand. Its imminent IPO was "known" back in July last year when Central Retail announced a Delisting Offer for its subsidiary <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/robinson-pcl-9d45b70c-fe89-4e3f-8b2e-e9c50c86f862" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14108:1" rel="noopener">Robinson Public Company (ROBINS TB)</a> which was struck at a certain price vis-a-vis Robinson, which would then turn into that nominal amount in shares in the CRC IPO to come after the end of 2019. The final approvals for delisting Robinson came at the end of December, at which point the preliminary Central RetailPricing Range of THB 40.0-48.0 was announced. In mid-January, the CRC IPO itself was officially launched, then a couple of business days later the New Official Pricing Range of THB 40.0-43.0 was set. After that point, the real news of the novel coronavirus 2019 from China came out, and travel started getting suspended, with initial quarantines starting in Wuhan. The news got progressively worse over the next few days, and this is significant for Thailand because Chinese tourists are a big part of the tourism economy which drives a non-negligible part of Thai GDP. The Central Retail IPO process continued - undeterred - and Pricing was set on 6 February at THB 42.0/share. Some call this "in the middle of the range" but I will call it in the middle of the lower range set after the top half of the initial target range was rejected.Where Central Retaildeserves to trade tomorrow when it opens is a question. Discussed below.

Central Retail (CRC TB)is one of the largest retailers in Thailand. Its imminent IPO was "known" back in July last year when Central Retail announced a Delisting Offer for its subsidiary Robinson Public Company (ROBINS TB) which was struck at a certain price vis-a-vis Robinson, which would then turn into that nominal amount in shares in the CRC IPO to come after the end of 2019. The final approvals for delisting Robinson came at the end of December, at which point the preliminary Central RetailPricing Range of THB 40.0-48.0 was announced. In mid-January, the CRC IPO itself was officially launched, then a couple of business days later the New Official Pricing Range of THB 40.0-43.0 was set. After that point, the real news of the novel coronavirus 2019 from China came out, and travel started getting suspended, with initial quarantines starting in Wuhan. The news got progressively worse over the next few days, and this is significant for Thailand because Chinese tourists are a big part of the tourism economy which drives a non-negligible part of Thai GDP. The Central Retail IPO process continued - undeterred - and Pricing was set on 6 February at THB 42.0/share. Some call this "in the middle of the range" but I will call it in the middle of the lower range set after the top half of the initial target range was rejected.Where Central Retaildeserves to trade tomorrow when it opens is a question. Discussed below.

Central Retail IPO Day 20 Feb - Basis Risk, Flow, and Index Dynamics

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

This week's offering across ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up pieces. Please see below for a brief summary of this week's published insights. MACRO InsightsIn Asia - A Good Year, Sharmila Whelan notes that the Chinese horoscope predicts that the 2018 year of the Brown Earth Dog is going to be a good one in all respects, but it will also be an exhausting one. In Buoyant Economy Allows a Long Fiscal Look-Ahead. Prasenjit K. Basu notes that with real GDP growing 3.6% in 2017, and property prices beginning to stir anew, Finance Minister Heng Swee Keat was able to report a revenue bonanza that gave him enormous fiscal headroom.in Asian Economic Trends - Monetary Policy and External Accounts, Jason Tan looks at recent monetary policy moves in Thailand and Indonesia. In a two-part series of insights, Singapore Budget 2018 (Part 1): Some Positives, Some Missed Opportunities and a Portent of Elections and Singapore Budget 2018 (Part 2): Expenditures Are Indeed Rising but Are Tax Hikes Inevitable?, Manu Bhaskaran notes that  Finance Minister Heng Swee Keat unveiled Budget 2018 against an economic backdrop buoyed by external tailwinds.In Singapore - Securing Growth, insight provider Sharmila Whelan suggests that it was evident from the 2018 Budget that Singapore’s rapidly aging population has the government in anxiety overdrive mode about where the next growth driver will come from and how the island society will meet its rising pension liabilities.Equity Bottom-Up InsightsIn Yoma Strategic - Losing Out on the Yangon Central Railway Tender, insight provider Royston Foo comments on the implications for Yoma Strategic Hldgs Ltd (YOMA SP) of its failure to win the tender for the Yangon Central Railway Station redevelopment tender. In DLG (DLG MK): Already Securing Customers for Phase 3, Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA zeros in on Dialog Group Bhd (DLG MK), which offers integrated technical services for the upstream and downstream sectors of the global oil, gas, and petrochemical industries.In SMPC:  25% Sales Growth Causes a Stable 2017 Net Profit, our friends from Country Group report back post numbers from Sahamitr Pressure Container (SMPC TB) and remain positive on the company with 31% upside to their target price of THB18. They maintain forecast following the results. In TOG: Huge Rise in SG&amp;A Led to a Drop in 2017 Net Profit, Country Group circle back to Thai Optical Group Pcl (TOG TB) post numbers. They rank TOG as a BUY with 20% upside to our target price of Bt9.80. In Arwana Citramulia - Riding the Sumatran Tiger, former Jakartan Angus Mackintosh circles back to Arwana Citramulia Tbk Pt (ARNA IJ) post a company visit. In his view, the company remains a key proxy for rising disposable incomes for lower-end consumers. In Lippo Malls. Currency Impacts Gearing and Income, and Prefs Eat into DPU. 8% Yield for How Long?, Alan Greene takes a look at Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust (LMRT SP) and examines its prospects.In ComfortDelgro: Re-Drawing of Ride Maps &amp; Uberflash Are Near-Term Positives, Valerie Law, CFA provides a brief discussion of ComfortDelgro's FY17 results, followed by an outlook for the company's main profit segments.In On the Ground Observations at BC, Thai guru Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA zeros in on Bangkok Chain Hospital Pcl (BCH TB) having spent three days at BCH's Kasemraj Bangkhae branch while waiting for his mom to recover. In Silverlake Axis: Confirmation of a New 3-Year Growth Cycle, Nicolas Van Broekhoven focuses in on Silverlake Axis Ltd (SILV SP) post recent results and remains upbeat about the company's prospects.In Overseas Education Ltd (OEL SP) - More Pain to Come as Weak Enrolment Points to 3Q Miss, Lloyd Moffatt circles back to this single asset Singapore education play and points towards so near-term pain. In PM: 4Q17 Slightly Trimmed Due to a Surge in SG&amp;A, Country Group zoom in on Premier Marketing Pcl (PM TB) following some slightly disappointing results, which fell short of expectations due to a surge in SG&amp;A expenses.In Too Early to Bottom Feed as Chickens Fly into More Headwinds, Lloyd Moffatt circles back to chicken play GFPT Public Co Ltd (GFPT TB) after a drawback in the domestic chicken price combined with a sharp rise in soy-meal and corn feedstock prices led to a 10% reduction in FY17 Consensus Earnings Forecasts and a 30% fall in share price from its recent October peak. In FTE: Strong 4Q17 Performance with Attractive Dividend, Country Group report back on Firetrade Engineering PCL (FTE TB) post its results, where it saw revenue growth alongside margin improvements.In JUBILE: 12% Sales Growth Causes Increase Bottom Line Growth, Country Group report back on Jubilee Enterprise Pcl (JUBILE TB) after it reported its numbers and reported a record quarter driven by positive revenue growth. In Astra International - January Car Sales Better but Competition Bites Market Share, Angus Mackintosh circles back to Astra International Tbk Pt (ASII IJ) after it released January car and motorcycle numbers. Astra International Tbk Pt (ASII IJ) has been facing increased competition and loss of market share in the auto market because of competition from new model launches from competitors.In PTTEP: Second Wind For Oil Stocks, Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA takes a look at PTT E&amp;P (PTTEP TB) and suggests that no stock comes closer to mimicking oil prices in Thailand than this company and its parent company PTT, aka the largest stock in Thailand.In Kitchen-Sinking Leads to Disappointing 4Q for Sembcorp Marine; Shares Still Overvalued, Morningstar note that Sembcorp Marine Ltd (SMM SP)'s fourth-quarter net loss of SGD 34 million was below expectation due to weak operating leverage on the back of lower business volume and additional cost accruals for floater projects, which are pending finalization with customers. In Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional: With Fundamentals Remaining Solid, Further Upside Seen, Johannes Salim, CFA reports back on pension player Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional Tbk Pt (BTPN IJ). Having revisited Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional Tbk Pt (BTPN IJ)'s fundamentals, he believes that things are not as bad as 2017 headline numbers suggest.In SIS: Substantial Surge in Sales and Associate Income in 4Q17, our friends at Country Group report back on Sis Distribution Thailand Pc (SIS TB) post some record quarterly numbers.In SORKON: Franchises and Delivery Services Drove 50% 2017 Net Profit, Country Group circle back to S Khonkaen Foods Pcl (SORKON TB) post results. in TWPC : Dropped Performance in 4Q17 Due to Swell SG&amp;A, our friends at Country Group take another look at Thai Wah Public Company Limited (TWPC TB) post its results. In Beauty Community: Another Beat, insight provider Vaibhav Saharan circles back to Beauty Community Pcl (BEAUTY TB) post-consensus beating numbers. Sector and Thematic Insightsin Singapore Telcos Struggle Ahead of TPG Entry. Mostly Weak Results, our friends at New Street Research note that the Singapore telecom market has really struggled of late with investors underwhelmed by SingTel (ST SP) results but shocked by the Starhub (STH SP) numbers. in Singapore Residential Property – Minimal Impact from Higher Buyer Stamp Duty, Royston Foo notes that in the recent Singapore Budget 2018 announced last week, Finance Minister Mr. Heng Swee Keat introduced a change to Buyer Stamp Duty (“BSD”) Rates for Singapore residential properties.In Sector Capsule: Luxury Hotels (5-Star Plus) In Thailand, our friends at Euromonitor International Ltd. zoom in on the luxury hotel segment in Thailand. in Recent Highlights of Singapore-Focused Real Estate Stocks, Geoff Howie looks at the 25 largest capitalised Real Estate stocks that reported more than 80% of their revenue to Singapore based on Annual Reports, maintain an average market cap of S$3.0 billion, ranging from S$7.5 billion for A-REIT to S$718 million for Hong Fok Corp.In Indonesia Property - Some Respite on the Horizon, Angus Mackintosh reports back from an insightful meeting with James Taylor, Head of Research at Jones Lang Lasalle Jakarta. 2017 saw office demand picking up throughout the year, primarily coming from e-commerce players, Fintech, online gaming and travel players, such as Traveloka. In Singapore Property Weekly Recap (17th Feb to 23rd Feb 2018), Royston Foo reports back on four pieces of property news that you need to know about in Singapore and provides his value-added commentsIn Sector Capsule: Womenswear in Thailand, our friends at Euromonitor International Ltd. note that womenswear current retail value sales grew by 5% in 2017 to reach THB104 billion. 

The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Buoyant Budgets, Hospitals, and Telcos

Thailand

Firetrade Engineering Public Company Limited designs and sells fire protection equipment. The Company offers fire extinguishers and alarm, sprinkler and nozzle, fire pump system, and monitors. Firetrade Engineering serves customers in Thailand.

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Firetrade Engineering (FTE TB)

Central Retail IPO Day 20 Feb - Basis Risk, Flow, and Index Dynamics

Central Retail (CRC TB)is one of the largest retailers in Thailand. Its imminent IPO was "known" back in July last year when Central Retail...

Travis Lundy

The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Buoyant Budgets, Hospitals, and Telcos

This week's offering across ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable insights from across...

Angus Mackintosh

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