Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since early-October we have discussed our expectation for a bear rally, targeting the 200-day MAs on the $IWM and $SPX; targets were hit (within 0.5% of hitting on SPX).</li>
<li>We are now seeing short-term uptrend breaks on the IWM and the DJIA; this is a good time to get defensive and/or take profits, as the 1.5-month rally appears over.</li>
<li>We expect more weakness in the weeks ahead, and we cannot rule out another test of the 2022 lows.</li>
</ul>


Since early-October we have discussed our expectation for a bear rally, targeting the 200-day MAs on the $IWM and $SPX; targets were hit (within 0.5% of hitting on SPX).
We are now seeing short-term uptrend breaks on the IWM and the DJIA; this is a good time to get defensive and/or take profits, as the 1.5-month rally appears over.
We expect more weakness in the weeks ahead, and we cannot rule out another test of the 2022 lows.


Time to Get Defensive After 1.5-Month Uptrend Breaks; High Yield Spreads Widening Much Like Mid-Aug.

<ul>
<li>Despite $IWM already hitting our price target at 200-day MA/YTD downtrend, and the $SPX getting to within 1% of our target at 200-day MA, we see this 1.5-month rally continuing.</li>
<li>We expect further upside as long as the 1.5-month uptrend channels remain intact on the SPX and IWM, and we believe that breakouts above their 200-day MAs could be coming</li>
<li>Breakouts above their 200-day MAs that would likely signal the end to this bear market.</li>
</ul>


Despite $IWM already hitting our price target at 200-day MA/YTD downtrend, and the $SPX getting to within 1% of our target at 200-day MA, we see this 1.5-month rally continuing.
We expect further upside as long as the 1.5-month uptrend channels remain intact on the SPX and IWM, and we believe that breakouts above their 200-day MAs could be coming
Breakouts above their 200-day MAs that would likely signal the end to this bear market.


Small- And Mid-Cap Indexes Poised to Break Out?; Further Upside Expected; Buys Within Cyclicals

<ul>
<li>Our Russell 2000 (IWM) and S&amp;P 500 targets for this rally have been the 200-day MAs, coinciding with YTD downtrends.</li>
<li>The Russell already hit this target while the S&amp;P is closing in, less than 1% away.</li>
<li>Still, the vast majority of signals point to further upside ahead for the market indexes, and a possible end to the bear market.</li>
</ul>


Our Russell 2000 (IWM) and S&amp;P 500 targets for this rally have been the 200-day MAs, coinciding with YTD downtrends.
The Russell already hit this target while the S&amp;P is closing in, less than 1% away.
Still, the vast majority of signals point to further upside ahead for the market indexes, and a possible end to the bear market.


Rally Continues Following Breaks in USD & 10-Yr Yield; Buy Ideas in Energy & Consumer Discretionary

Financial Select Sector SPDR F / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The market remains in bear market rally mode, and our price target remains the 200-day MAs on the SPX and Russell 2000, as discussed in last week's Compass (Oct. 25).</li>
<li>Longer-Term, this is still a bear market until the S&amp;P 500 and IWM can break above their respective YTD downtrends/200-day MAs, and markets could easily test their lows again.</li>
<li>With that said, there are signs that suggest breakouts above YTD downtrends/200-day MAs could be coming. Catalysts include the FOMC announcement on Wednesday, followed by midterm elections on Nov. 8.</li>
</ul>


The market remains in bear market rally mode, and our price target remains the 200-day MAs on the SPX and Russell 2000, as discussed in last week's Compass (Oct. 25).
Longer-Term, this is still a bear market until the S&amp;P 500 and IWM can break above their respective YTD downtrends/200-day MAs, and markets could easily test their lows again.
With that said, there are signs that suggest breakouts above YTD downtrends/200-day MAs could be coming. Catalysts include the FOMC announcement on Wednesday, followed by midterm elections on Nov. 8.


Bear Market Rally Continues; Financials/XLF Reversing YTD Downtrend; Small-Caps at 11-Month RS Highs

<ul>
<li>Despite a few tumultuous trading days, the S&amp;P 500 remains above its 200-week MA (3590-3600) and the Russell 2000 (IWM) remains above $163 -- both important support levels moving forward.</li>
<li>We continue to see potential for a bear market rally (~+10% from the lows) as long as these support levels hold.</li>
<li>Bear market rallies would be confirmed by bullish reversals of the 2-month downtrends, or above 3810 on the SPX and above $174 on the IWM, and the latter happened today.</li>
</ul>


Despite a few tumultuous trading days, the S&amp;P 500 remains above its 200-week MA (3590-3600) and the Russell 2000 (IWM) remains above $163 -- both important support levels moving forward.
We continue to see potential for a bear market rally (~+10% from the lows) as long as these support levels hold.
Bear market rallies would be confirmed by bullish reversals of the 2-month downtrends, or above 3810 on the SPX and above $174 on the IWM, and the latter happened today.


Bear Market Rally Remains in Play; Russell 2000 (IWM) Short-Term Breakout; Buys in Banks & Insurance

United States

Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA.  The Fund's objective is to provide investment results that, before expenses, correspond to the performance of The Financial Select Sector.  The Index includes financial services firms whose business' range from investment management to commercial & business banking.

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Financial Select Sector SPDR F (XLF US)

Time to Get Defensive After 1.5-Month Uptrend Breaks; High Yield Spreads Widening Much Like Mid-Aug.

Our targets for this bear rally have been hit, which were the 200-day MAs on $IWM and $SPX (within 0.5%). Now seeing short-term uptrend breaks on...

Vermilion Research

Small- And Mid-Cap Indexes Poised to Break Out?; Further Upside Expected; Buys Within Cyclicals

Despite $IWM already hitting our price target at its 200-day MA/YTD downtrend, & the $SPX getting to within 1% of our target at its 200-day MA, we...

Vermilion Research

Rally Continues Following Breaks in USD & 10-Yr Yield; Buy Ideas in Energy & Consumer Discretionary

Our $IWM target (its 200-day MA) has been hit and our $SPX target is less than 1% away. Still, the rally is poised to continue following breaks in...

Vermilion Research

Bear Market Rally Continues; Financials/XLF Reversing YTD Downtrend; Small-Caps at 11-Month RS Highs

The market is still in bear market rally mode, and our price target remains the 200-day MAs on the $SPX and $IWM. $XLF YTD downtrend reversal, $XLV...

Vermilion Research

Bear Market Rally Remains in Play; Russell 2000 (IWM) Short-Term Breakout; Buys in Banks & Insurance

A bear market rally (+10% from the lows) remains in play as long as the $SPX remains above its 200-week MA (3590-3600) and the $IWM remains above...

Vermilion Research

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