Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>US Treasury liquidity conditions remain weak and the turmoil in Treasuries during the third quarter of 2023 probably played a major role in the Powell pivot in December in hindsight.</li><li>There are signs of increasing liquidity stress in US Treasury markets again, but how is that possible during a regime of increasing bank reserves (USD liquidity).</li><li>It all has to do with the mechanics of leverage ratios in regulation.</li></ul>

US Treasury liquidity conditions remain weak and the turmoil in Treasuries during the third quarter of 2023 probably played a major role in the Powell pivot in December in hindsight.There are signs of increasing liquidity stress in US Treasury markets again, but how is that possible during a regime of increasing bank reserves (USD liquidity).It all has to do with the mechanics of leverage ratios in regulation.

USD Liquidity Watch: Treasury Selling Due to Bank Reserves Influx?

Fundamental Principles of the Stock Market, From 0 to 1 in the Stock Market

From 0 to 1 in the Stock Market

Fundamental Principles of the Stock Market

Fundamental principles of the stock market, earnings reviews and research. My name is Giuliano Mana, I’m 23 years old. I have a B.A Degree in Finance and I’m a Master’s candidate at Brandeis IBS. I’ve been thoroughly going over huge amounts of reading material regarding the stock market and hope to transmit some insights here.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The last twelve months were, market-wise, interesting. Multiple things have happened that contributed to changes in my thinking-process.</li>
<li>Refining thoughts and the mental mechanism I utilize to approach portfolio management should lead to success, or at least that is my hypothesis.</li>
<li>Continuous learning allows for building more solid premises. Given time, compound interest sharpens them to the point where chances of error are minimum.</li>
</ul>


The last twelve months were, market-wise, interesting. Multiple things have happened that contributed to changes in my thinking-process.
Refining thoughts and the mental mechanism I utilize to approach portfolio management should lead to success, or at least that is my hypothesis.
Continuous learning allows for building more solid premises. Given time, compound interest sharpens them to the point where chances of error are minimum.


Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst, Pennock Idea Hub

Cam Hui

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst

Pennock Idea Hub

We are creators of independent equity research. The Pennock Idea Hub team are veterans of the investment industry. Much of our team has spent their careers at Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets and Wood Gundy. We have taken every aspect of research back to the studs and returned to first principles. The Pennock Idea Hub marries the interests of the sell and buy side. 

We offer the best research for institutional investors by:

-Only publishing research from veteran analysts
-Eliminate the inherent conflicts of the traditional sell and buy side relationship
-Ensure our team is always accessible; collaboration with clients nurtures our collective success

Cross-Asset & Quantitative Research

<ul>
<li>We are making U.S. financials a high conviction buy idea for the following reasons</li>
<li>Positive macro backdrop from falling yields and steepening yield curve.</li>
<li>Sector shows strong technical strength and strong contrarian buy signals.</li>
</ul>


We are making U.S. financials a high conviction buy idea for the following reasons
Positive macro backdrop from falling yields and steepening yield curve.
Sector shows strong technical strength and strong contrarian buy signals.


2024 High Conviction Idea: Buy U.S. Financials

<ul><li>Markets are pricing in heavy cuts for next year as inflation keeps coming in soft, making a soft landing the base case for the bulls, but everything comes at a price.</li><li>But how are assets likely to perform if the market narrative is correct and yields will indeed come down in a continued bull-steepening fashion, which in our view is the most likely scenario in H1 2024?</li><li>We have pulled out some of our cross-asset beta studies from our data-library to provide you with an overview of how assets perform during various yield curve regimes.</li></ul>

Markets are pricing in heavy cuts for next year as inflation keeps coming in soft, making a soft landing the base case for the bulls, but everything comes at a price.But how are assets likely to perform if the market narrative is correct and yields will indeed come down in a continued bull-steepening fashion, which in our view is the most likely scenario in H1 2024?We have pulled out some of our cross-asset beta studies from our data-library to provide you with an overview of how assets perform during various yield curve regimes.

Bull Steepening Watch – Is Lower Yields Really What Risk Assets Want?

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since 11/21/23 Compass we have discussed weekly that even a minor 2-5% pullback is far from a guarantee, considering "breakaway gaps" and what appeared to be an ongoing "lockout rally"</li>
<li>All we got was a 1% peak to trough decline in the S&amp;P 500, while the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) pulled back 2.9% (though left the 11/14/23 gap unfilled).</li>
<li>Now, SPX and QQQ are breaking out yet again after a multi-week consolidation period, including SPX breaking above 2-year resistance at 4600-4607. This is what a strong market looks like.</li>
</ul>


Since 11/21/23 Compass we have discussed weekly that even a minor 2-5% pullback is far from a guarantee, considering "breakaway gaps" and what appeared to be an ongoing "lockout rally"
All we got was a 1% peak to trough decline in the S&amp;P 500, while the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) pulled back 2.9% (though left the 11/14/23 gap unfilled).
Now, SPX and QQQ are breaking out yet again after a multi-week consolidation period, including SPX breaking above 2-year resistance at 4600-4607. This is what a strong market looks like.


Lockout Rally Continues; Breakouts Piling Up; SPX Breakout Above 2-Yr Resistance at 4600-4607

United States

Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA.  The Fund's objective is to provide investment results that, before expenses, correspond to the performance of The Financial Select Sector.  The Index includes financial services firms whose business' range from investment management to commercial & business banking.

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Financial Select Sector SPDR F (XLF US)

USD Liquidity Watch: Treasury Selling Due to Bank Reserves Influx?

There are signs of increasing liquidity stress in US Treasury markets again, but how is that possible during a regime of increasing bank reserves...

Steno Research

2023 Shareholder Letter

The last twelve months were, market-wise, interesting. Multiple things have happened that contributed to changes in my thinking-process.

From 0 to 1 in the Stock Market

2024 High Conviction Idea: Buy U.S. Financials

Buy U.S. Financials for: Positive macro backdrop from falling yields and steepening yield curve; strong technical strength; and contrarian buy...

Cam Hui

Bull Steepening Watch – Is Lower Yields Really What Risk Assets Want?

Let’s run through each asset class to see where to put your eggs if a bull-steepening of the yield curve continues into 2024.

Steno Research

Lockout Rally Continues; Breakouts Piling Up; SPX Breakout Above 2-Yr Resistance at 4600-4607

Lockout Rally Continues; Breakouts Piling Up; $SPX Breakout Above 2-Yr Resistance at 4600-4607, $COMP Breakout Above 14,400. This is what a strong...

Vermilion Research

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52-week Range

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